Zhenys are expected to triumph over Zhetysu in this Kazakhstan Premier League encounter, with a slight edge in recent form. The home side is coming off a draw, while the away team suffered a 0-4 defeat in their last outing. Zhenys have a 50% chance of winning, 28% of drawing, and 22% of losing. The model predicts a home win, with an expected total of 2.5 goals and the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 27% of the time.
At home, Zhenys have averaged 1.58 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against similar opponents. Meanwhile, Zhetysu have averaged 1 goal scored and 1.33 conceded while away against similar opponents. The model suggests two selections: Under 3.5 goals, which has a 75.8% probability, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 72.4% probability. The home win percentage is 50%, draw percentage is 28%, and away win percentage is 22%.
Results analysis
The win extends Zhenys' run of form, coming off a win and having a strong record at home. However, the final score of 4-1 was a far cry from the expected 2.5 total goals and the most likely score of 2-0. The model's selection of a home win was correct, with Zhenys emerging victorious. The model's pick of a home win had a pre-match probability of 52%. The suggested picks of Under 3.5 and Over 1.5 goals both had high probabilities, with 75.6% and 72.6% respectively. The Under 3.5 pick missed, while the Over 1.5 pick hit, as there were 5 goals scored in total.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zhenys win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.32
Edge
+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.48
Betano
2.47
Dafabet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.40
William Hil
2.38
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.04
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Zhetysu win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.84
Edge
-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.20
Bet365
3.10
Unibet
3.05
1xBet
2.87
888Sport
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.37
1.67
1.00
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.44
1.20
1.20
1.75
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.35
1.90
0.90
1.50
1.80
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.50
0.71
1.50
0.94
1.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
2.07
0.86
2.00
0.43
2.14
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.07
0.57
1.00
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
@ 1.33+3.9%
Under 1.5
27.4%
@ 2.92-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
888Sport
2.90
Marathonbet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
@ 2.07+1.2%
Under 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.67-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
888Sport
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Under
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.4%
@ 3.65-0.9%
Under 3.5
75.6%
@ 1.23+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.20
888Sport
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.1%
@ 1.79-2.0%
No
50.9%
@ 1.87+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
888Sport
1.80
10Bet
1.80
No
888Sport
1.91
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 5.38+5.3%
1-0
11.7%@ 6.41+5.2%
2-0
10.2%@ 9.67+5.9%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.23+4.4%
0-0
9.4%@ 7.62+3.9%
0-1
6.3%@ 7.44+0.7%
1-2
5.5%@ 9.48+1.1%
3-0
5.4%@ 19.88+3.3%
Zhenys goals ↓
Zhetysu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
6.3%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.4%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.4%
5.0%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhenys goals (down), columns = Zhetysu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.20
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Zhenys is 1.55 points better than Zhetysu in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.67
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Yelimay Semey
1.40
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Zhenys is 1.15 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Kairat Almaty
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.40
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Zhenys is 1.80 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zhenys
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhetysu
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhenys
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.2
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.44
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.80
1.00
0.60
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.73
0.36
0.57
0.12
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.07
0.43
0.86
0.00
1.29
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.47
0.29
0.29
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
0.87
0.47
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.80
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.55
0.90
0.30
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.36
0.93
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.00
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.60
0.29
0.71
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.6%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.6%
1.33
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
+3.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Zhenys and Zhetysu have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Zhenys and Zhetysu have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhenys and Zhetysu have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Zhenys and Zhetysu have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ordabasy
FC Astana
Aktobe
Kairat Almaty
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)