Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

Zhetysu face FK Tobol Kostanay in a match that the model favours for the away side, with a 42% chance of an away win, 29% for a draw and 29% for a home win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 13.7% probability. Home form shows Zhetysu scoring only 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 against stronger opposition, while FK Tobol Kostanay, playing away against weaker teams, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The model’s selections include an 89.6% chance of Under 11.5 corners, an 88.4% chance of Over 2.5 cards, an 82.7% chance of Under 10.5 corners, a 74.9% chance of Over 3.5 cards, a 74.3% chance of Over 1.5 goals (hit), a 73.8% chance of Under 3.5 goals (hit), and a 73.0% chance of Under 9.5 corners. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.

The upset was a draw, 1-1, after Zhetysu’s home form dipped with three straight defeats and a 0-3 loss to Ulytau, while FK Tobol Kostanay, coming off a 0-1 defeat to Kaspiy, had a mixed away run of LWWLL. The pre-match favourite was the away win, with a 42% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were Over 1.5, hit at 74.3%, and Under 3.5, hit at 73.8%. The most likely score was 1-1, with a 13.7% chance, and the expected total of 2.6 goals was not reached, as the match finished with two goals.