The model favours an away win for FK Tobol Kostanay, a result that is also the most likely outcome. With a 54% chance of victory, the match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, centring on a 2-goal total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability, a tidy draw that reflects the balanced nature of the contest. Zhetysu, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while FK Tobol, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded. The home win percentage sits at 19%, the draw at 27%, and the away win at 54%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Under 5.5 (96.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.6%), Away +2 handicap (93.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.0%), and Under 4.5 (89.8%). Recent form shows Zhetysu struggling after three straight losses, while FK Tobol has just returned from a defeat, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zhetysu win
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay win
55.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.73
0.77
1.62
0.94
1.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.23
0.86
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.44
0.67
1.17
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.10
1.92
1.15
1.71
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.19
1.71
1.43
1.44
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.75
2.40
0.60
2.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.8%
1-1
12.7%
0-2
11.3%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
9.4%
0-3
6.1%
1-0
6.0%
1-3
5.1%
Zhetysu goals ↓
FK Tobol Kostanay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
13%
11%
6.1%
2.5%
1
6.0%
13%
9.4%
5.1%
2.1%
2
3.0%
4.8%
3.9%
2.1%
0.9%
3
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhetysu goals (down), columns = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Zhetysu is 1.60 points worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of average points per game (0.20 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Zhetysu is 0.60 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Zhetysu is 1.80 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals conceded per game (2.80 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zhetysu
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 7.5 · Against 8.0 · Total 15.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zhetysu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
15.5
21.0
10.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Stronger (2)
15.5
21.0
10.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (30)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
4%
4%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
96%
96%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zhetysu or Draw
45.0%
Avg Implied -
18%
27%
55%
covers Zhetysu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu or FK Tobol Kostanay
73.0%
Avg Implied -
18%
27%
55%
covers Zhetysu + FK Tobol Kostanay
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay
82.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
27%
55%
covers Draw + FK Tobol Kostanay
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zhetysu, so a minus line means Zhetysu give that many goals of a start and FK Tobol Kostanay receive them. At -1, Zhetysu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zhetysu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.5%
FK Tobol Kostanay +2
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu -1
5.9%
Draw -1
12.0%
FK Tobol Kostanay +1
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu +1
45.0%
Draw +1
24.6%
FK Tobol Kostanay -1
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu +2
69.5%
Draw +2
17.4%
FK Tobol Kostanay -2
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.38
0.62
0.12
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.15
0.43
0.86
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.19
0.62
0.33
0.33
0.10
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.08
0.62
1.00
0.35
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.11
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.42
1.40
0.20
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.38
1.00
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.81
0.33
0.83
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.85
0.54
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.69
0.86
0.43
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Zhetysu's squad is €6m less valuable than FK Tobol Kostanay's (€3m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Zhetysu's attack is €2m less valuable than FK Tobol Kostanay's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhetysu's midfield is €2m less valuable than FK Tobol Kostanay's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Zhetysu's defence is €2m less valuable than FK Tobol Kostanay's (€2m vs €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)