Zhetysu’s home form shows a modest 0.6 goals per game and 0.8 conceded, while Kaspiy, on the road, averages 2.53 scored and 1.4 conceded against similar opposition, suggesting a high-scoring outing. The model favours an away win, with a 47 % chance, a draw at 25 %, and a home win at 28 %. The expected total is 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that carries a 22 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11 % chance. Recent form hints at a shift: Zhetysu, after two straight defeats, faces a side that has drawn its last match. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (98.1 %), Under 6.5 (95.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.5 %), Under 5.5 (88.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (88.2 %), Away +2 handicap (86.9 %), Over 1.5 (84.8 %), and Away over 0.5 goals (84.4 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zhetysu win
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy win
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.73
0.77
1.62
0.94
1.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.23
0.86
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.44
0.67
1.17
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.20
2.67
1.07
2.60
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.50
1.35
2.54
1.15
2.46
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
3.50
0.50
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.2%
0-1
5.9%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
4.9%
Zhetysu goals ↓
Kaspiy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.9%
6.2%
3.7%
1.7%
1
4.6%
11%
9.1%
5.5%
2.5%
2
4.1%
7.4%
6.6%
4.0%
1.8%
3
2.0%
3.6%
3.2%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhetysu goals (down), columns = Kaspiy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Zhetysu is 1.30 points worse than Kaspiy in terms of average points per game (0.20 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Zhetysu is 1.07 goals worse than Kaspiy in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Zhetysu is 1.30 goals worse than Kaspiy in terms of goals conceded per game (2.80 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zhetysu
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaspiy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhetysu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zhetysu or Draw
55.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
25%
45%
covers Zhetysu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu or Kaspiy
75.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
25%
45%
covers Zhetysu + Kaspiy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaspiy
69.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
25%
45%
covers Draw + Kaspiy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5
Over
83.5%
Under
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 3.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zhetysu, so a minus line means Zhetysu give that many goals of a start and Kaspiy receive them. At -1, Zhetysu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zhetysu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu -2
5.3%
Draw -2
9.1%
Kaspiy +2
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu -1
14.3%
Draw -1
16.0%
Kaspiy +1
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu +1
55.2%
Draw +1
20.0%
Kaspiy -1
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zhetysu)
Zhetysu +2
75.1%
Draw +2
13.8%
Kaspiy -2
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.38
0.62
0.12
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.15
0.43
0.86
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.19
0.62
0.33
0.33
0.10
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.50
1.31
0.38
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.38
1.00
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.81
0.33
0.83
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.77
1.33
0.73
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.85
1.23
0.77
1.77
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Zhetysu and Kaspiy have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Zhetysu and Kaspiy have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhetysu's midfield is €1m less valuable than Kaspiy's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Zhetysu and Kaspiy have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)