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Zhetysu vs Kyzyl-Zhar Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-2
Zhetysu
Zhetysu
Vs
34%
32%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kyzyl-Zhar
Kyzyl-Zhar
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Zhetysu a 34% win probability against Kyzyl-Zhar in the Kazakhstan: Premier League on 2026-07-25, with 32% for the draw and 33% for Kyzyl-Zhar. The model estimates around 2.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (83%).

Results analysis

Zhetysu finished 1-2 against Kyzyl-Zhar (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 32% draw and 33% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (83%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zhetysu win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar win✓ Hit
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZhetysuZhetysu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W03L10W21W00D23L11D05L12L01LH·ORD20/07A·YEL26/07H·TUR03/08A·OKZ09/08H·ATY17/08A·AKT24/08H·KAI16/09A·KAI05/10H·FK 19/10H·KYZ26/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.700.671.270.802.13
vs Stronger (18)0.782.111.001.670.562.56
vs Similar (12)0.671.080.170.671.171.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L11D11D02L31W01L01L10WH·ATY20/07A·KAI26/07H·FK 02/08A·ULY09/08H·ZHE16/08A·YEL23/08H·OKZ13/09A·AKT27/09H·KAI17/10A·ZHE26/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.231.471.330.931.13
vs Stronger (14)0.791.430.711.140.861.71
vs Similar (16)1.561.062.121.501.000.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.0%
Under 1.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.7%
Under 2.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.6%
Under 3.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.3%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
11.2%
2-1
7.3%
1-2 ✓
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.6%
Zhetysu goals ↓
Kyzyl-Zhar goals →
01234
013%11%6.6%2.3%0.6%
112%15%7.1%2.5%0.6%
26.9%7.3%3.8%1.3%0.3%
32.5%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.7%0.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhetysu goals (down), columns = Kyzyl-Zhar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Zhetysu is 0.12 points worse than Kyzyl-Zhar in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.04).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Zhetysu is 0.15 goals worse than Kyzyl-Zhar in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 0.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Irtysh
1.39
Kaspiy
1.41
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.46
Zhetysu
1.58
Ulytau
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Atyrau
1.73
Okzhetpes
1.73
Zhetysu is 0.35 goals worse than Kyzyl-Zhar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

ZhetysuZhetysu

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ZhetysuZhetysu

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (29)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FTK (21)
€11m
ORD (22)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (22)
€8m
FA (19)
€8m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
FTK (6)
€4m
KA (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FTK (5)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (10)
€4m
FA (10)
€4m
FTK (10)
€4m
KA (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Zhetysu vs Kyzyl-Zhar · H/A from ZHE
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25HZHE Vs Kyzyl-Zhar0-1
02/03/25AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ZHE1-1
03/08/24AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ZHE2-1
19/05/24HZHE Vs Kyzyl-Zhar0-0
05/08/23HZHE Vs Kyzyl-Zhar1-1
13/05/23AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ZHE1-0

ZhetysuZhetysu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25HZHE Vs Kyzyl-Zhar0-1
19/10/25HZHE Vs FK Tobol Kostanay1-2
05/10/25AKairat Almaty Vs ZHE5-0
16/09/25HZHE Vs Kaisar1-1
24/08/25AAktobe Vs ZHE3-2
17/08/25HZHE Vs Atyrau0-0
09/08/25AOkzhetpes Vs ZHE1-2
03/08/25HZHE Vs Turan Turkistan1-0
26/07/25AYelimay Semey Vs ZHE3-0
20/07/25HZHE Vs Ordabasy1-0

Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25AZhetysu Vs KYZ0-1
17/10/25HKYZ Vs Kairat Almaty0-1
27/09/25AAktobe Vs KYZ1-0
13/09/25HKYZ Vs Okzhetpes3-1
23/08/25AYelimay Semey Vs KYZ2-0
16/08/25HKYZ Vs Zhenys1-1
09/08/25AUlytau Vs KYZ1-1
02/08/25HKYZ Vs FK Tobol Kostanay0-2
26/07/25AKaisar Vs KYZ1-0
20/07/25HKYZ Vs Atyrau0-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Zhetysu
Zhetysu
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL0.94
HomeWDDLL1.08
AwayLLWLL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%24%16%
AVG goals2.241.962.52
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %48%40%56%
Over 3.5 %20%12%28%
Scored0.760.760.76
Conceded1.481.201.76
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Kyzyl-Zhar
Kyzyl-Zhar
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.12
HomeLLDWL1.24
AwayLDLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.242.362.12
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %36%32%40%
Over 3.5 %14%20%8%
Scored1.081.240.92
Conceded1.161.121.20
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy512
80%
2.4
134+9
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3342.60.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana410
75%
2.5
93+6
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
1242.20.8
-
3AktobeAktobe510
60%
2.0
108+2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5232.01.6
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty39
100%
3.0
83+5
3.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.71.0
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar48
50%
2.0
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
6OkzhetpesOkzhetpes46
50%
1.5
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay36
67%
2.0
32+1
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
4341.00.7
-
8KaspiyKaspiy56
20%
1.2
99+0
3.6
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey56
20%
1.2
77+0
2.8
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
10IrtyshIrtysh46
50%
1.5
68-2
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
11ZhenysZhenys34
33%
1.3
64+2
3.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
12KaisarKaisar32
0%
0.7
34-1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
13AtyrauAtyrau52
0%
0.4
38-5
2.2
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
14UlytauUlytau41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
15ZhetysuZhetysu41
0%
0.2
311-8
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
16Altay (Kazakhstan)Altay (Kazakhstan)51
0%
0.2
717-10
4.8
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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