Zhetysu and Ordabasy face off in the Kazakhstan Premier League on August 8. Ordabasy is coming off a win, but their recent form is mixed, with a last five results of WLWDW. In contrast, Zhetysu is coming off a draw, with a last five results of DLLLL. The model prefers an away win, with a probability of 37%, while the market is split, with 33% for Zhetysu and 30% for a draw. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most probable score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%. At home, Zhetysu has scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 1.86, while Ordabasy has scored 0.67 goals and conceded 0.67 when away to a stronger opponent. Ordabasy is the model's selection for the Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 78.4% and an edge of 8%. The home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 37%.
Results analysis
A tough day for the model's selections as several picks failed to materialize. The win by Ordabasy extends their run to three victories in their last five matches. The final score was 0-4 in favor of the away team, who recorded an away win. The model correctly picked the away team as its selection, with a pre-match probability of 37%. The model's selection was correct, as it accurately predicted the outcome.
The model's selection, the away win, was the only correct pick among the suggested selections. The model's selection of under 3.5 total goals was the model's selection, but it missed, with a probability of 78.4%. The model's selection of under 3.5 total goals was the model's selection, but it missed, with a probability of 78.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zhetysu win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied 16.7% · @ 5.43
Edge
+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.92
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.80
Dafabet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.74
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.96
Bet365
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Ordabasy win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.53
Edge
-22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Unibet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.47
0.77
1.31
0.88
1.59
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.38
2.25
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.07
0.57
1.00
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordabasy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.13
1.75
0.94
1.43
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.75
1.31
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.93
1.33
0.83
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.26-2.7%
Under 1.5
30.1%
@ 3.35+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Under
Unibet
3.60
1xBet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
888Sport
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.4%
@ 1.87-7.4%
Under 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.85+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Under
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.91
SBO
1.89
1xBet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.86
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.6%
@ 3.12-7.9%
Under 3.5
78.4%
@ 1.31+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
888Sport
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Superbet
3.05
Under
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.6%
@ 1.92+1.4%
No
50.4%
@ 1.78-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
2.01
Superbet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
No
Unibet
1.87
888Sport
1.80
Betfair
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 6.41+7.9%
0-0
10.6%@ 9.09+6.0%
0-1
10.2%@ 5.61+2.7%
1-0
9.3%@ 11.78+5.7%
1-2
8.1%@ 7.17+2.2%
2-1
7.5%@ 14.80+4.6%
0-2
7.1%@ 6.24+0.4%
2-0
6.1%@ 25.67+4.4%
Zhetysu goals ↓
Ordabasy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.1%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.3%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.1%
7.5%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.3%
2.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhetysu goals (down), columns = Ordabasy goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Zhetysu is 2.30 points worse than Ordabasy in terms of average points per game (0.20 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Zhetysu is 2.07 goals worse than Ordabasy in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Zhetysu is 2.13 goals worse than Ordabasy in terms of goals conceded per game (2.80 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zhetysu
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ordabasy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhetysu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordabasy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
29.2
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.77
0.38
0.54
0.12
0.94
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.14
0.50
0.83
0.00
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.47
0.29
0.29
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordabasy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.75
0.62
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.81
0.80
0.90
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.17
0.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.38
0.77
0.76
0.65
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.83
0.38
0.88
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.60
0.29
0.71
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordabasy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.00
0.31
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
1.20
0.10
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.4%
1.31
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+7.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Zhetysu's squad is €7m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€3m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Zhetysu's attack is €2m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhetysu's midfield is €2m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€0m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Zhetysu's defence is €3m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€2m vs €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)