Zimbru II’s recent form, after four straight defeats, suggests a cautious start, yet their home attack averages 2.5 goals per game against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.5. Iskra, on a three-game winning streak, averages 1.71 goals scored and 2.0 conceded away, but faces a weaker side. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3, giving a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8% probability. Home win is the favoured result, with a 39% chance, draw 25%, and away win 37%. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 85.7% probability. This high-scoring outlook aligns with the teams’ offensive output, making a 1-1 result the most likely outcome while the overall match leans toward a home victory.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Zimbru II secured a 5-1 home win, extending their win to break a four-game losing streak. The pre-match favourite was Home win, given a 39% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals at 85.7%, hit, as the match produced five goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 with 10.8% probability, but the actual 5-1 result far exceeded the expected total of 3.4 goals. Zimbru II’s strong home form and Iskra’s away struggles were reflected in the final outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru II win✓ Hit
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.79
1.71
1.67
1.33
1.88
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
2.40
1.40
2.50
1.50
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (3)
2.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
2.33
1.00
1.33
1.00
3.33
Clean sheet %
14% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.73
1.67
1.27
1.93
2.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.31
1.67
0.67
2.43
2.14
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
2.08
1.67
2.17
1.71
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.1%
1-0
5.0%
0-1
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
Zimbru II goals ↓
Iskra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.8%
4.8%
2.6%
1.1%
1
5.0%
11%
8.1%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.4%
6.9%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.9%
4.8%
3.9%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.2%
2.0%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru II goals (down), columns = Iskra goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Sireți
2.33
Floreşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
Sheriff II
0.95
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Olimp Comrat
0.68
Zimbru II is 0.16 points worse than Iskra in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sireți
3.47
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Univer Comrat
2.00
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Olimp Comrat
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Sheriff II
1.05
Zimbru II is 0.07 goals worse than Iskra in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Sireți
1.33
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
Sheriff II
1.68
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Olimp Comrat
2.82
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Zimbru II is 0.34 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.64
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.17
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.53
0.40
0.50
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
1.17
1.20
1.00
1.14
1.29
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.07
0.67
0.83
0.75
1.25
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
14% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.73
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
0.88
1.20
0.40
1.43
1.57
vs Weaker (12)
0.42
1.00
0.20
1.40
0.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FCM Ungheni
FC Stăuceni
Univer Comrat
Sireți
Floreşti
Sheriff II
Oguzsport
Făleşti
Victoria Bardar
Olimp Comrat