This match between Zimbru II and Iskra is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Zimbru II coming off a defeat in their last outing. The home side has shown decent form at home, scoring an average of 2.33 goals and conceding 1.67, particularly against similar opponents. Meanwhile, Iskra has struggled away from home, scoring 1.7 goals and conceding 1.9, also against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 43% chance of Zimbru II emerging victorious, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of Iskra winning. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with 2 goals being the most likely total. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.7%. The model suggests taking Under 3.5 goals at 74.8% and Over 1.5 goals at 73.4%. Zimbru II has a 43% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 28% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The biggest upset of the day came as Iskra stunned Zimbru II with a 2-1 away win, extending their run of form. The win was a major surprise, given that Zimbru II were the pre-match favourite with a 43% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, Home win, was wrong, as Iskra pulled off the upset. The model's call on the final score was also off, with the most likely score being 1-1, but the actual result was 1-2. The model did correctly predict that the match would see Under 3.5 goals, with a 74.8% probability, and also correctly predicted that the match would see Over 1.5 goals, with a 73.4% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru II win✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra win✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.96
1.62
2.00
1.17
1.92
2.08
vs Stronger (10)
2.50
1.40
2.75
1.50
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (7)
2.14
0.86
2.00
0.80
2.50
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
2.71
1.00
1.33
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.70
1.53
1.53
1.40
1.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.21
2.16
1.33
2.11
1.10
2.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.0%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.4%
1-2 ✓
6.9%
2-2
5.0%
Zimbru II goals ↓
Iskra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
7.4%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.0%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru II goals (down), columns = Iskra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Zimbru II is 0.16 points worse than Iskra in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Zimbru II is 0.07 goals worse than Iskra in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Zimbru II is 0.34 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.75
0.92
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
0.60
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.14
0.40
0.20
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.57
1.00
0.67
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
54% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
1.16
0.89
1.22
0.70
1.10
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.88
1.08
0.67
0.92
1.08
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
0.80
1.25
0.75
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.71
1.60
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.14
1.14
0.00
0.67
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
29% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.73
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.42
1.00
0.44
0.89
0.40
1.10
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →