The contest between Zimbru II and Iskra is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are evenly split, with a 36% chance of a Zimbru II victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 36% chance of an Iskra win. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.5% probability. Zimbru II, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Iskra, away from home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.27 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. The model’s selections lean heavily toward low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Under 4.5 (86.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.7%), and Home under 2.5 goals (84.5%). All figures are presented as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru II win
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra win
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.85
1.81
1.86
1.36
1.85
2.31
vs Stronger (11)
2.36
1.45
2.40
1.60
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.38
2.00
0.80
2.00
2.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
19% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.07
1.47
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.70
2.10
2.22
2.00
1.27
2.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
8.0%
1-0
7.9%
0-1
7.8%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
6.1%
Zimbru II goals ↓
Iskra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.8%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.9%
13%
8.2%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.3%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru II goals (down), columns = Iskra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Zimbru II is 0.16 points worse than Iskra in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Zimbru II is 0.07 goals worse than Iskra in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Zimbru II is 0.34 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zimbru II or Draw
64.3%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
36%
covers Zimbru II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II or Iskra
71.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
36%
covers Zimbru II + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iskra
64.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
36%
covers Draw + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zimbru II, so a minus line means Zimbru II give that many goals of a start and Iskra receive them. At -1, Zimbru II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zimbru II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II -2
6.1%
Draw -2
10.9%
Iskra +2
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II -1
16.9%
Draw -1
19.1%
Iskra +1
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II +1
64.3%
Draw +1
19.0%
Iskra -1
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II +2
83.3%
Draw +2
10.7%
Iskra -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.89
0.79
0.57
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.40
0.20
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
1.10
1.11
1.22
0.82
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.93
1.07
0.79
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.82
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.75
1.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
26% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.07
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
1.00
1.11
0.78
0.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti