Zimbru II are clear favourites, with the model assigning a 73% chance of a home win, 16% for a draw and 11% for a Spartanii Selemet victory. The 73% edge stems from Zimbru’s strong home form, scoring an average of two goals and conceding less than a goal against similar opposition, while Spartanii have struggled away, netting only 0.86 goals and conceding 2.86. The expected total of 3.9 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Zimbru, with an 8.6% probability. The model also projects a 6+ goal total with a 20% chance, reflecting the offensive imbalance.
The suggested picks mirror this narrative. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Home +2 handicap at 96.0%, Under 7.5 at 95.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 94.2%, Over 1.5 at 90.9%, Away under 2.5 goals at 90.4%, Under 6.5 at 89.7% and Home or Draw at 89.1%. These picks underline the expectation that Zimbru will dominate the match, with Spartanii unlikely to score many goals. The recent form notes - four straight defeats for Zimbru and three for Spartanii - add context to the predicted outcome, reinforcing the model’s confidence in a Zimbru victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru II win
73.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet win
10.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.85
1.81
1.86
1.36
1.85
2.31
vs Stronger (11)
2.36
1.45
2.40
1.60
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.38
2.00
0.80
2.00
2.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
19% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.80
1.29
2.64
0.94
2.94
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
3.64
1.17
4.17
0.88
3.25
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.08
1.40
1.00
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.1%
Under 2.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
2-0
8.0%
3-0
7.6%
1-1
6.7%
4-1
5.8%
4-0
5.4%
1-0
5.0%
Zimbru II goals ↓
Spartanii Selemet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
1.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
1
5.0%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
2
8.0%
8.6%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
7.6%
8.2%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
4
5.4%
5.8%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru II goals (down), columns = Spartanii Selemet goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Zimbru II is 0.31 points worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Zimbru II is 0.67 goals worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 2.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Zimbru II is 0.22 goals worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zimbru II or Draw
89.1%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers Zimbru II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II or Spartanii Selemet
84.2%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers Zimbru II + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
26.8%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers Draw + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5
Over
94.2%
Under
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 3.5
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zimbru II, so a minus line means Zimbru II give that many goals of a start and Spartanii Selemet receive them. At -1, Zimbru II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zimbru II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II -2
33.8%
Draw -2
20.1%
Spartanii Selemet +2
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II -1
53.8%
Draw -1
19.4%
Spartanii Selemet +1
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II +1
89.1%
Draw +1
7.0%
Spartanii Selemet -1
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II +2
96.0%
Draw +2
2.9%
Spartanii Selemet -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.89
0.79
0.57
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.40
0.20
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.40
0.64
1.43
0.25
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
2.07
0.67
2.67
0.12
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.83
0.60
0.40
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.93
1.07
0.79
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.82
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.75
1.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
26% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.40
0.64
1.21
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.57
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.25
0.80
0.60
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (12)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
Zimbru II's squad is €1m less valuable than Spartanii Selemet's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Zimbru II and Spartanii Selemet have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Zimbru II and Spartanii Selemet have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
Zimbru II and Spartanii Selemet have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →