Zimbru II’s recent slump of four straight defeats fuels a narrative that the home side must rebound against Vulturii Cutezători, who have just beaten them 5-1. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.7 goals and a most likely total of three goals at a 21% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.1% chance. Home win is the favoured result at 40%, draw 23%, and away win 36%. Zimbru II averages two goals scored and 0.8 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Vulturii Cutezători average 1.75 scored and 2.5 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.3%), Under 6.5 (91.4%), Over 1.5 (89.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (83.8%), and Under 5.5 (82.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru II win
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.85
1.81
1.86
1.36
1.85
2.31
vs Stronger (11)
2.36
1.45
2.40
1.60
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.38
2.00
0.80
2.00
2.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
19% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vulturii Cutezători
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.59
2.52
1.64
2.14
1.54
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
3.00
1.29
2.71
1.14
3.29
vs Similar (11)
1.91
1.91
2.00
1.57
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
4% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.6%
Under 1.5
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.2%
Under 2.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.5%
Under 3.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.4%
No
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.1%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
7.3%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
4.6%
1-3
4.6%
2-3
4.4%
Zimbru II goals ↓
Vulturii Cutezători goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
3.5%
3.9%
2.4%
1.1%
1
3.7%
9.1%
7.6%
4.6%
2.1%
2
4.4%
8.0%
7.3%
4.4%
2.0%
3
2.8%
5.1%
4.6%
2.8%
1.3%
4
1.3%
2.4%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru II goals (down), columns = Vulturii Cutezători goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Zimbru II is 0.14 points better than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.49).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Zimbru II is 0.08 goals worse than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Zimbru II is 0.19 goals better than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zimbru II or Draw
63.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
23%
36%
covers Zimbru II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II or Vulturii Cutezători
76.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
23%
36%
covers Zimbru II + Vulturii Cutezători
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vulturii Cutezători
59.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
23%
36%
covers Draw + Vulturii Cutezători
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5
Over
85.4%
Under
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 3.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 3.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zimbru II, so a minus line means Zimbru II give that many goals of a start and Vulturii Cutezători receive them. At -1, Zimbru II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zimbru II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II -2
10.2%
Draw -2
12.3%
Vulturii Cutezători +2
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II -1
22.5%
Draw -1
18.0%
Vulturii Cutezători +1
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II +1
63.5%
Draw +1
17.0%
Vulturii Cutezători -1
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zimbru II)
Zimbru II +2
80.5%
Draw +2
11.1%
Vulturii Cutezători -2
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.89
0.79
0.57
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.40
0.20
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vulturii Cutezători
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.04
0.85
1.00
0.82
1.09
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.93
1.07
0.79
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.82
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.75
1.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
26% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vulturii Cutezători
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.08
0.85
0.92
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti