PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Zlin and Hradec Králové is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 40%. Home victory sits at 34% and a draw at 26%, leaving no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Zlin, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.88 conceded, while Hradec Králové, on the road, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against comparable teams. Recent form shows both sides coming off defeats, with Zlin’s last match a 2-3 loss and Hradec Králové a 0-2 defeat.
The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 87.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.2%, and Over 3.5 cards at 70.1%. All figures are expressed as percentages and each pick is listed with its probability.
The pre-match favourite, Hradec Králové, failed to deliver as the model had predicted an away win with a 40% probability. Instead, Zlín shocked the table with a 4-0 home victory, extending their recent slump of four losses. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s other selections all came through: Over 1.5 goals hit, as did Over 2.5 cards, Over 3.5 cards, Over 19.5 fouls, and Over 21.5 fouls, each with probabilities of 82.1%, 85.5%, 70.1%, 87.7%, and 76.9% respectively. The only miss was Under 11.5 corners, which fell short of the 73.2% expectation. The final score of 4-0 confirmed the home side’s dominance.
Zlin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 0.71 | 1.82 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.83 | 2.58 | 0.80 | 2.20 | 0.86 | 2.86 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.44 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.88 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Hradec Králové| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.00 | 1.48 | 1.22 | 1.44 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 3.00 | 0.67 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Hradec Králové goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 12% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
ZlinHradec KrálovéZlin| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 24.5 | 24.6 | 24.4 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 9.9 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 22.7 | 25.3 | 20.1 |
| vs Similar (31) | 8.8 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 25.4 | 24.1 | 26.3 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 47% | 45% | 48% | 50% | 57% | 44% | 68% | 72% | 65% |
| % under line | 53% | 55% | 52% | 50% | 43% | 56% | 32% | 28% | 35% |
Hradec Králové| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 26.8 | 26.3 | 27.2 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 25.9 | 25.2 | 26.4 |
| vs Similar (37) | 9.4 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 26.8 | 26.1 | 27.5 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 12.7 | 11.5 | 15.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 28.7 | 30.5 | 25.0 |
| % over line | 50% | 43% | 57% | 68% | 72% | 64% | 73% | 68% | 78% |
| % under line | 50% | 57% | 43% | 32% | 28% | 36% | 27% | 32% | 22% |
Zlin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.20 | 0.29 | 0.86 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Hradec Králové| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.70 | 1.07 | 0.64 | 0.31 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.52 | 0.76 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Zlin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.38 | 0.47 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 1.58 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.75 | 1.62 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Hradec Králové| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.86 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.48 | 0.71 | 0.22 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 70.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/03/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/09/22 | A | 0-0 |
Zlin| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/23 | A | 5-3 | |
| 26/11/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/11/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/11/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/10/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/10/23 | H | 5-9 | |
| 07/10/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 30/09/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/09/23 | A | 5-1 | |
| 17/09/23 | H | 1-7 |
Hradec Králové| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/12/23 | H | 2-3 | |
| 25/11/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/11/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/11/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/10/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/10/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 08/10/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 01/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 24/09/23 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Sparta Praha | 35 | 87 | 77% | 2.5 | 82 | 30 | +52 | 3.2 | 86% | 63% | 40% | 10.9 | 59% | 4.6 | 53% | 22.1 | 56% | 92 | 43 | 27 | 22 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 2 |  Slavia Praha | 35 | 85 | 74% | 2.4 | 76 | 24 | +52 | 2.9 | 80% | 60% | 31% | 10.2 | 54% | 4.9 | 63% | 24.7 | 71% | 123 | 27 | 35 | 61 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 61% |
| 3 |  Plzen | 35 | 70 | 60% | 2.0 | 76 | 40 | +36 | 3.3 | 86% | 63% | 37% | 10.5 | 57% | 4.6 | 69% | 24.9 | 80% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 4 |  Mlada Boleslav | 36 | 50 | 39% | 1.4 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 3.2 | 78% | 64% | 42% | 11.5 | 67% | 4.1 | 47% | 23.2 | 50% | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 5 |  Baník Ostrava | 35 | 49 | 40% | 1.4 | 56 | 48 | +8 | 3.0 | 74% | 51% | 40% | 11.6 | 65% | 4.9 | 71% | 22.0 | 56% | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 55% |
| 6 | Hradec Králové | 35 | 49 | 37% | 1.4 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.4 | 71% | 40% | 29% | 10.2 | 59% | 5.1 | 72% | 23.8 | 56% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 7 |  Slovácko | 35 | 44 | 34% | 1.3 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 2.9 | 74% | 46% | 37% | 9.9 | 48% | 4.6 | 61% | 23.1 | 59% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 8 |  Teplice | 34 | 42 | 32% | 1.2 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 2.3 | 68% | 41% | 18% | 9.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 65% | 26.6 | 79% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 9 |  FK Jablonec | 35 | 41 | 26% | 1.2 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 9.6 | 53% | 5.9 | 91% | 29.6 | 88% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 10 |  Slovan Liberec | 32 | 40 | 31% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.0 | 81% | 50% | 34% | 9.9 | 63% | 5.2 | 83% | 25.1 | 77% | 27 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 11 |  Pardubice | 35 | 40 | 31% | 1.1 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 2.5 | 69% | 40% | 14% | 10.9 | 62% | 4.8 | 78% | 25.2 | 82% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 12 |  Bohemians 1905 | 35 | 39 | 26% | 1.1 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 2.3 | 71% | 43% | 20% | 9.7 | 66% | 4.9 | 68% | 24.4 | 77% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 13 |  Karviná | 37 | 38 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 2.8 | 68% | 57% | 38% | 9.8 | 56% | 4.6 | 68% | 25.3 | 75% | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 45% |
| 14 |  Sigma Olomouc | 32 | 37 | 31% | 1.2 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 2.9 | 91% | 59% | 38% | 10.9 | 65% | 4.7 | 67% | 23.3 | 65% | 30 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 15 |  České Budějovice | 37 | 33 | 22% | 0.9 | 44 | 72 | -28 | 3.1 | 81% | 65% | 38% | 11.4 | 76% | 4.3 | 63% | 25.1 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 49% |
| 16 | Zlin | 35 | 27 | 14% | 0.8 | 40 | 69 | -29 | 3.1 | 74% | 49% | 31% | 9.5 | 53% | 4.2 | 64% | 24.7 | 67% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 17 |  Táborsko | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 18 |  Vyškov | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 47% |