In the upcoming match between Zrinjski and Posuše, defensive solidity is expected to play a key role. Zrinjski has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, with a strong recent form note of being unbeaten in their last 5. They have conceded just 0.75 goals on average at home against weaker opponents.
Posuše, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, conceding 2 goals on average against stronger opponents. Zrinjski's home win probability stands at 60%, while the draw probability is 27%, and the away win probability is 13%. The model's selection is the home win.
The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 17%.
Zrinjski's home scoring average is 1.25 goals, and their home conceding average is 0.75 goals. Posuše's away scoring average is 1 goal, and their away conceding average is 2 goals. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals has a probability of 82.8%. Other suggested picks include the home win (60%), the draw (27%), and the away win (13%).
Results analysis
The draw extends Zrinjski's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, having previously drawn 2-2 with Valur Reykjavik. However, it's the away team Posuše that has caused the upset, as the home side failed to secure a win despite being the pre-match favourite with a 60% probability. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit at 82.8%, with the final score being 0-0.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zrinjski win✗ Miss
59.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Posušje win✗ Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.40
0.73
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.29
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.52
0.62
1.64
0.64
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Posušje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.10
0.88
0.94
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.78
0.17
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.80
1.30
0.50
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.5%
Under 2.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.5%
No
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.0%
2-0
14.1%
0-0 ✓
12.7%
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.4%
3-0
7.3%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
4.4%
Zrinjski goals ↓
Posušje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
5.8%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
1
17%
12%
3.2%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
8.4%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
7.3%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
4
2.8%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zrinjski goals (down), columns = Posušje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Zrinjski is 1.03 points better than Posušje in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Zrinjski is 0.64 goals better than Posušje in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Zrinjski is 0.44 goals better than Posušje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.30
0.60
0.27
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.71
0.00
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
0.71
0.10
0.82
0.09
0.60
0.10
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Posušje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.31
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.78
0.00
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.30
0.70
0.20
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
0.81
0.52
0.82
0.55
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Posušje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.44
0.62
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.17
1.17
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.30
0.20
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Banja Luka
FK Sarajevo
Velež
Siroki Brijeg
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Radnik Bijeljina
Sloga Doboj
Rudar Prijedor