Zrinjski’s recent four-game winning streak, highlighted by a 1-0 victory over FK Sarajevo, fuels the model’s confidence that a home win is the most likely outcome. The prediction engine rates a 68% chance of Zrinjski triumphing, with a 22% draw probability and only a 10% chance for Radnik Bijeljina to win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly high scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 14.6% probability. Zrinjski’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and concede just 0.62 against weaker opposition, while Radnik Bijeljina, playing away against stronger opponents, averages only 0.78 goals scored and concedes 2.44. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with 74.8% and Over 1.5 with 73.1%. Edge percentages are not provided for these picks. The match is set to finish with a 68% home win, 22% draw, and 10% away win.
Results analysis
Zrinjski’s 4-game winning streak continued as they edged Radnik Bijeljina 2-1, confirming the model’s pick of a home win at 68%. The predicted 2-goal total also materialised, with the Under 3.5 selection hitting at 74.8% and the Over 1.5 choice also successful at 73.1%. The model’s favourite was correct, and the final score matched the most likely 2-0 outcome, though the actual 2-1 result still fell within the high-probability 2-goal range. Radnik’s away form, marked by a draw after a 2-2 finish, proved insufficient against Zrinjski’s strong home performance, cementing the model’s accurate forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zrinjski win✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.93
1.64
0.71
1.25
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.45
2.00
0.80
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.76
0.53
1.50
0.62
2.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
1.29
0.71
0.75
1.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
1.93
0.83
1.17
0.78
2.44
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.86
1.62
0.38
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.3%
No
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.6%
1-0
14.2%
1-1
10.3%
3-0
9.3%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
0-0
8.8%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
4.5%
Zrinjski goals ↓
Radnik Bijeljina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
3.9%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
1
14%
10%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
9.0%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
9.3%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.5%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zrinjski goals (down), columns = Radnik Bijeljina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Zrinjski is 1.00 points better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Zrinjski is 0.58 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Zrinjski is 0.56 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.64
0.50
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.18
0.62
0.25
0.67
0.11
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.57
0.36
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.43
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.00
0.21
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.82
1.20
0.00
0.33
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.35
0.88
0.38
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.71
0.36
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.93
0.17
0.67
0.44
1.11
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.43
1.12
0.12
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zrinjski
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Slobodan Jakovljević33%
Vitalie Damașcan25%
Karlo Abramović20%
Mario Ćuže17%
Leo Mikić12%
Duje Dujmović12%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neven Đurasek57%
Vitalie Damașcan50%
Karlo Abramović40%
Kerim Memija33%
Ilija Mašić25%
Duje Dujmović25%
Nemanja Bilbija20%
Marko Vranjković20%
Igor Savić14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Vranjković20%
Neven Đurasek14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Mario Ćuže33%
Petar Mamić14%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Leo Mikić0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Zrinjski's squad is €4m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€8m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Zrinjski's attack is €2m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zrinjski's midfield is €1m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Zrinjski's defence is €1m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€3m vs €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Banja Luka
FK Sarajevo
Velež
Siroki Brijeg
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Posušje
Sloga Doboj
Rudar Prijedor