Zrinjski’s home form is the key driver behind the model’s 68 % win probability, a clear favourite over Siroki Brijeg who struggles on the road, conceding twice as many goals as they score against stronger opponents. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27 %. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Zrinjski, a 14.8 % chance. The model picks a home win as the most probable outcome. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 68 %, 22 % and 10 % respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.7 %), Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (97.7 %), Home +2 handicap (97.4 %), Under 5.5 (95.8 %), Home or Draw (90.0 %) and Home +1 handicap (90.0 %). Zrinjski averages 1.42 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home against weaker sides, while Siroki Brijeg averages 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded away against stronger opponents.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zrinjski win
68.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg win
9.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.87
1.73
0.67
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.79
0.71
1.85
0.62
1.73
0.82
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Siroki Brijeg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.40
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.60
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.30
1.22
0.78
1.00
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.1%
No
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.7%
1-0
14.1%
1-1
10.1%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.6%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
4.7%
Zrinjski goals ↓
Siroki Brijeg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
3.8%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
1
14%
10%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
9.0%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
9.6%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.7%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zrinjski goals (down), columns = Siroki Brijeg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Zrinjski is 0.72 points better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Zrinjski is 0.31 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Zrinjski is 0.64 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zrinjski or Draw
90.3%
Avg Implied -
68%
22%
10%
covers Zrinjski + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski or Siroki Brijeg
78.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
22%
10%
covers Zrinjski + Siroki Brijeg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Siroki Brijeg
31.6%
Avg Implied -
68%
22%
10%
covers Draw + Siroki Brijeg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zrinjski, so a minus line means Zrinjski give that many goals of a start and Siroki Brijeg receive them. At -1, Zrinjski must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zrinjski win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zrinjski)
Zrinjski -2
21.9%
Draw -2
21.5%
Siroki Brijeg +2
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zrinjski)
Zrinjski -1
43.4%
Draw -1
25.1%
Siroki Brijeg +1
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zrinjski)
Zrinjski +1
90.3%
Draw +1
7.2%
Siroki Brijeg -1
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zrinjski)
Zrinjski +2
97.5%
Draw +2
2.1%
Siroki Brijeg -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.29
0.85
0.23
0.91
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Siroki Brijeg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.56
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.4%
Under 0.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HT
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.92
0.42
1.00
0.38
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Siroki Brijeg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.10
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.22
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.5%
Under 0.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.5%
Under 1.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.1%
Under 2.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2H
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2H
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zrinjski · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Slobodan Jakovljević33%
Vitalie Damașcan25%
Karlo Abramović20%
Mario Ćuže17%
Leo Mikić12%
Duje Dujmović12%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neven Đurasek57%
Vitalie Damașcan50%
Karlo Abramović40%
Kerim Memija33%
Ilija Mašić25%
Duje Dujmović25%
Nemanja Bilbija20%
Marko Vranjković20%
Igor Savić14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Vranjković20%
Neven Đurasek14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Mario Ćuže33%
Petar Mamić14%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Leo Mikić0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Zrinjski's squad is €5m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€8m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Zrinjski's attack is €3m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zrinjski and Siroki Brijeg have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Zrinjski's defence is €2m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€3m vs €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →