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Zrinjski vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 12/10/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Vs
63%
26%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zrinjski win✓ Hit
63.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L41W10W10W01L40W10W30W10WA·SLO25/08A·BOR31/08H·FK 04/09A·SLO07/09A·POS11/09A·SLO14/09H·IGM18/09H·SLO30/09H·SIR05/10A·ZEL08/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.420.582.200.600.560.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.880.621.500.250.251.00
vs Weaker (11)1.820.552.670.830.800.20
Clean sheet %53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D00D03L40W00D11D11D11D10WA·LEO12/08H·IGM17/08A·SIR27/08A·SLO30/08H·TUZ05/09A·BOR10/09A·SLO14/09H·FK 19/09H·POS30/09A·IGM07/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.861.670.830.380.88
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (11)1.000.911.800.800.331.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %29% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.0%
Under 1.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.2%
Under 2.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
35.9%
No
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
17.0%
2-0
14.9%
0-0
11.9%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
8.4%
3-0
8.2%
0-1
5.1%
3-1
4.6%
Zrinjski goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
012%5.1%1.7%0.3%0.0%
117%11%2.9%0.5%0.1%
215%8.4%2.4%0.4%0.1%
38.2%4.6%1.3%0.2%0.0%
43.4%1.9%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zrinjski goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.36
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.61
FK Sarajevo
1.58
Siroki Brijeg
1.45
Velež
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Tuzla City
1.12
Igman Konjic
1.12
Posušje
1.12
Leotar
1.03
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Zrinjski is 1.00 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.00
FK Sarajevo
1.52
Tuzla City
1.30
Igman Konjic
1.27
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.27
Sloga Doboj
1.21
Velež
1.21
Borac Banja Luka
1.18
Siroki Brijeg
1.15
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Leotar
0.88
Posušje
0.85
Zrinjski is 0.79 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zrinjski
0.64
Borac Banja Luka
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Siroki Brijeg
1.09
Velež
1.12
Sloboda Tuzla
1.24
FK Sarajevo
1.39
Tuzla City
1.39
Posušje
1.39
Leotar
1.39
Igman Konjic
1.45
Sloga Doboj
1.67
Zrinjski is 0.48 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (0.64 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L31W00D10W01L10W10W10W10WA·SLO25/08A·BOR31/08H·FK 04/09A·SLO07/09A·POS11/09A·SLO14/09H·IGM18/09H·SLO30/09H·SIR05/10A·ZEL08/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.790.261.100.200.440.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.500.380.750.250.250.50
vs Weaker (11)1.000.181.330.170.600.20
Clean sheet %74% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L11D00D01L10W00D00D00D11D00DA·LEO12/08H·IGM17/08A·SIR27/08A·SLO30/08H·TUZ05/09A·BOR10/09A·SLO14/09H·FK 19/09H·POS30/09A·IGM07/10
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.290.500.670.500.000.50
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.360.640.800.600.000.67
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W10W00D00D30W00D20W00DA·SLO25/08A·BOR31/08H·FK 04/09A·SLO07/09A·POS11/09A·SLO14/09H·IGM18/09H·SLO30/09H·SIR05/10A·ZEL08/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.321.100.400.110.22
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.380.250.750.000.000.50
vs Weaker (11)0.820.361.330.670.200.00
Clean sheet %79% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D02L30W00D11D11D00D10WA·LEO12/08H·IGM17/08A·SIR27/08A·SLO30/08H·TUZ05/09A·BOR10/09A·SLO14/09H·FK 19/09H·POS30/09A·IGM07/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.361.000.330.380.38
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.640.271.000.200.330.33
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %71% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards87.3%--------
Under 3.581.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners78.3%--------
Over 3.5 cards73.2%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

Zrinjski · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Slobodan Jakovljević33%
Vitalie Damașcan25%
Karlo Abramović20%
Mario Ćuže17%
Leo Mikić12%
Duje Dujmović12%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neven Đurasek57%
Vitalie Damașcan50%
Karlo Abramović40%
Kerim Memija33%
Ilija Mašić25%
Duje Dujmović25%
Nemanja Bilbija20%
Marko Vranjković20%
Igor Savić14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Vranjković20%
Neven Đurasek14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Mario Ćuže33%
Petar Mamić14%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Leo Mikić0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Zrinjski's squad is €5m more valuable than Velež's (€8m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Zrinjski's attack is €2m more valuable than Velež's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zrinjski's midfield is €1m more valuable than Velež's (€2m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Zrinjski's defence is €1m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ZRI wins
0
Draws
0
VEL wins

Head-to-head

Zrinjski vs Velež · H/A from ZRI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/22AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs ZRI0-1
05/10/22HZRI Vs Siroki Brijeg3-0
30/09/22HZRI Vs Sloboda Tuzla1-0
18/09/22HZRI Vs Igman Konjic4-0
14/09/22ASloga Doboj Vs ZRI1-0
11/09/22APosušje Vs ZRI0-1
07/09/22ASloboda Tuzla Vs ZRI0-1
04/09/22HZRI Vs FK Sarajevo4-1
31/08/22ABorac Banja Luka Vs ZRI1-0
25/08/22ASlovan Bratislava Vs ZRI1-0

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/22AIgman Konjic Vs VEL0-1
30/09/22HVEL Vs Posušje1-1
19/09/22HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo1-1
14/09/22ASloboda Tuzla Vs VEL1-1
10/09/22ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL0-0
05/09/22HVEL Vs Tuzla City4-0
30/08/22ASloga Doboj Vs VEL3-0
27/08/22ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-0
17/08/22HVEL Vs Igman Konjic1-1
12/08/22ALeotar Vs VEL1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW2.00
HomeWWWWW2.50
AwayLWWLW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %63%80%44%
AVG goals2.002.801.11
Over 1.5 %37%60%11%
Over 2.5 %32%60%0%
Over 3.5 %21%40%0%
Scored1.422.200.56
Conceded0.580.600.56
BTTS26%40%11%
Clean Sheet53%60%44%
Corners7.607.338.00
Cards7.807.678.00
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDW1.14
HomeWDWDD1.50
AwayDLDDW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%33%12%
AVG goals1.792.501.25
Over 1.5 %57%83%38%
Over 2.5 %21%33%12%
Over 3.5 %14%33%0%
Scored0.931.670.38
Conceded0.860.830.88
BTTS43%67%25%
Clean Sheet29%17%38%
Corners9.00-9.00
Cards7.00-7.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3378
76%
2.4
6621+45
2.6
70%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.00.6
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3358
55%
1.8
3932+7
2.2
58%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.21.0
-
3Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3353
45%
1.6
4235+7
2.3
67%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.1
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3352
45%
1.6
5046+4
2.9
70%
48%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.4
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3348
39%
1.5
3836+2
2.2
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.21.1
-
6VeležVelež3345
33%
1.4
4037+3
2.3
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.1
-
7Tuzla CityTuzla City3337
30%
1.1
4346-3
2.7
64%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
8Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3337
27%
1.1
4248-6
2.7
70%
48%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3337
30%
1.1
4055-15
2.9
76%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.7
-
10PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
2846-18
2.2
67%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
11LeotarLeotar3334
27%
1.0
2946-17
2.3
64%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3332
21%
1.0
3241-9
2.2
61%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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