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Zrinjski vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 13/04/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Vs
58%
27%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zrinjski win✓ Hit
58.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W11D20W00D50W11D01L20W21W40WA·SIR10/12H·AST14/12H·FK 18/12A·ZEL17/02H·IGM25/02A·SLO02/03H·BOR10/03H·ZEL16/03A·BOR30/03H·ZVI08/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.972.200.801.271.13
vs Stronger (4)1.251.502.502.000.001.00
vs Similar (8)0.751.001.001.000.501.00
vs Weaker (18)2.280.832.670.441.891.22
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W11D00D00D01L11D20W10W11DH·FK 01/12A·ZEL08/12H·IGM17/12A·SLO16/02H·BOR24/02A·POS03/03H·TUZ11/03H·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.031.880.941.071.14
vs Stronger (9)1.111.331.671.000.002.00
vs Similar (17)1.531.121.881.121.221.11
vs Weaker (4)2.250.002.500.002.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.3%
No
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
14.4%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
12.3%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
6.9%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.0%
Zrinjski goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
011%5.7%2.5%0.6%0.1%
114%12%4.0%1.0%0.2%
213%9.1%3.3%0.8%0.1%
36.9%5.0%1.8%0.4%0.1%
42.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zrinjski goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
Zrinjski is 0.52 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (2.30 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Zrinjski is 0.79 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (2.30 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
Zrinjski is 0.03 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D20W00D40W00D01L00D10W30WA·SIR10/12H·AST14/12H·FK 18/12A·ZEL17/02H·IGM25/02A·SLO02/03H·BOR10/03H·ZEL16/03A·BOR30/03H·ZVI08/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.431.270.530.600.33
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.001.500.000.00
vs Similar (8)0.620.501.000.500.250.50
vs Weaker (18)1.280.331.670.330.890.33
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D00D01L11D20W00D01LH·FK 01/12A·ZEL08/12H·IGM17/12A·SLO16/02H·BOR24/02A·POS03/03H·TUZ11/03H·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.880.500.290.71
vs Stronger (9)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.650.711.000.620.330.78
vs Weaker (4)1.000.001.500.000.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D00D10W11D00D20W11D10WA·SIR10/12H·AST14/12H·FK 18/12A·ZEL17/02H·IGM25/02A·SLO02/03H·BOR10/03H·ZEL16/03A·BOR30/03H·ZVI08/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.530.930.270.670.80
vs Stronger (4)1.250.752.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (8)0.120.500.000.500.250.50
vs Weaker (18)1.000.501.000.111.000.89
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W10W00D00D00D00D00D10W10WH·FK 01/12A·ZEL08/12H·IGM17/12A·SLO16/02H·BOR24/02A·POS03/03H·TUZ11/03H·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.431.000.440.790.43
vs Stronger (9)0.780.671.170.500.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.880.410.880.500.890.33
vs Weaker (4)1.250.001.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.9%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Zrinjski
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zvonimir Kožulj25%
Aldin Hrvanović17%
Nemanja Bilbija12%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Josip Ćorluka12%
Matija Malekinušić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Filip Bradarić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zvonimir Kožulj50%
Dario Čanađija43%
Nemanja Bilbija38%
Aldin Hrvanović33%
Slobodan Jakovljević29%
Filip Bradarić25%
Matija Malekinušić25%
Kerim Memija14%
Mario Ćuže12%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tomislav Kiš25%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Josip Ćorluka12%
Matija Malekinušić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Filip Bradarić0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Kerim Memija0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Zvonimir Kožulj0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Aldin Hrvanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dario Čanađija14%
Mario Ćuže12%
Filip Bradarić0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Kerim Memija0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Zvonimir Kožulj0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Matija Malekinušić0%
Aldin Hrvanović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Zrinjski's squad is €5m more valuable than Velež's (€8m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Zrinjski's attack is €2m more valuable than Velež's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zrinjski's midfield is €1m more valuable than Velež's (€2m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Zrinjski's defence is €1m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
4
ZRI wins
0
Draws
1
VEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zrinjski vs Velež · H/A from ZRI
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/23AVelež Vs ZRI3-0
18/10/23HZRI Vs Velež3-0
23/04/23AVelež Vs ZRI0-1
08/03/23AVelež Vs ZRI1-3
12/10/22HZRI Vs Velež1-0

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/24HZRI Vs Zvijezda 094-0
30/03/24ABorac Banja Luka Vs ZRI1-2
16/03/24HZRI Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-0
10/03/24HZRI Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
02/03/24ASloga Doboj Vs ZRI1-1
25/02/24HZRI Vs Igman Konjic5-0
17/02/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs ZRI0-0
18/12/23HZRI Vs FK Sarajevo2-0
14/12/23HZRI Vs Aston Villa1-1
10/12/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs ZRI0-2

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/24HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka1-1
29/03/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
17/03/24HVEL Vs Igman Konjic2-0
11/03/24HVEL Vs Tuzla City1-1
03/03/24APosušje Vs VEL1-0
24/02/24HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka0-0
16/02/24ASloga Doboj Vs VEL0-0
17/12/23HVEL Vs Igman Konjic1-1
08/12/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
01/12/23HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.82
HomeWWLWW2.15
AwayLWDDW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%69%42%
AVG goals2.983.502.42
Over 1.5 %78%88%67%
Over 2.5 %56%65%46%
Over 3.5 %32%42%21%
Scored1.902.421.33
Conceded1.081.081.08
BTTS50%62%38%
Clean Sheet30%27%33%
Corners9.578.1411.00
Cards4.504.714.29
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.56
HomeDDDWD1.78
AwayDWDLW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%35%
AVG goals2.302.631.91
Over 1.5 %60%67%52%
Over 2.5 %30%33%26%
Over 3.5 %20%26%13%
Scored1.321.630.96
Conceded0.981.000.96
BTTS40%48%30%
Clean Sheet44%48%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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