Zrinjski are tipped to lift the trophy with a 46% chance of victory, the model’s pick for a home win. The contest is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% probability, a tidy reflection of both sides’ balanced scoring chances. Home side Zrinjski, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.73 goals scored and 0.73 conceded, while away Velež, facing a stronger opponent away, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (94.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.6%), Home +2 handicap (89.1%), and Under 4.5 (87.0%). Home win probability stands at 46%, draw at 28%, and away win at 27%.
Results analysis
Zrinjski’s recent three-game winning run carried into the Cup clash, while Velež, after a solitary win, struggled away. The model’s favourite, a home win at 46 percent, proved correct as Zrinjski edged Velež 1-0. The prediction of a 2-goal total was also right, with the match ending 1-0. Every model selection hit: Under 7.5 at 99.4 percent, Under 6.5 at 98.1 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3 percent, Under 5.5 at 94.7 percent, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.0 percent, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.6 percent, Home +2 handicap at 89.1 percent, and Under 4.5 at 87.0 percent. The model’s comprehensive set of choices delivered a clean sweep of correct outcomes.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zrinjski win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.50
0.81
1.14
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.65
0.65
1.73
0.73
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.57
1.31
0.44
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.37
1.45
0.18
1.12
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0 ✓
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.2%
Zrinjski goals ↓
Velež goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.7%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.6%
13%
6.8%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.3%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zrinjski goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Posušje
2.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Kruševo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
Zrinjski is 0.25 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zrinjski is 0.25 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.27
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Slavija
5.00
Zrinjski is 0.50 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zrinjski or Draw✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
27%
covers Zrinjski + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski or Velež✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
27%
covers Zrinjski + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Velež✗ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zrinjski, so a minus line means Zrinjski give that many goals of a start and Velež receive them. At -1, Zrinjski must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zrinjski win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zrinjski)Actual: Velež
Zrinjski -2
9.5%
Draw -2
14.1%
Velež +2
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zrinjski)Actual: Draw
Zrinjski -1
23.6%
Draw -1
21.9%
Velež +1
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zrinjski)Actual: Zrinjski
Zrinjski +1
73.4%
Draw +1
15.7%
Velež -1
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zrinjski)Actual: Zrinjski
Zrinjski +2
89.1%
Draw +2
7.6%
Velež -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.50
0.38
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.75
0.00
0.75
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.15
0.73
0.18
0.56
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.56
0.31
0.43
0.29
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.11
0.64
0.09
0.62
0.12
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.55
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.75
0.12
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.26
0.82
0.09
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →