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Zrinjski vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 26/05/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 3-0
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Vs
51%
31%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Zrinjski a 51% win probability against Velež in the Bosnia: Premijer Liga on 2026-05-26, with 31% for the draw and 18% for Velež. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (17.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (86%).

Results analysis

Zrinjski finished 3-0 against Velež (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 51% home win, 31% draw and 18% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (86%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zrinjski win✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W12L30W11D12L20W10W00D22DH·RUD22/03A·VEL03/04A·FK 11/04A·SLO18/04H·BOR22/04A·SIR26/04H·ZEL01/05A·RAD09/05H·POS16/05A·RUD22/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.071.070.791.191.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.501.800.751.000.332.33
vs Weaker (20)1.450.701.200.701.700.70
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L00D22D30W00D10W11D42W23LA·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO11/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04H·RAD01/05A·POS09/05H·RUD16/05H·FK 21/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.801.120.620.931.00
vs Stronger (10)0.601.400.601.400.601.40
vs Similar (10)0.900.401.200.200.600.60
vs Weaker (10)1.600.601.500.331.751.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%025%128%218%39%43%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.4%
Under 1.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.1%
Under 2.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.5%
Under 3.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.2%
No
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.2%
0-0
15.3%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
11.9%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
3-0 ✓
5.2%
1-2
4.0%
Zrinjski goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
015%8.1%3.1%0.7%0.1%
117%13%4.0%0.9%0.1%
212%7.8%2.6%0.6%0.1%
35.2%3.4%1.1%0.2%0.0%
41.7%1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zrinjski goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Zrinjski is 0.56 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Zrinjski is 0.33 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Zrinjski is 0.28 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W12L10W00D01L20W00D00D22DH·RUD22/03A·VEL03/04A·FK 11/04A·SLO18/04H·BOR22/04A·SIR26/04H·ZEL01/05A·RAD09/05H·POS16/05A·RUD22/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.360.430.440.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.100.800.000.750.170.83
vs Weaker (20)0.550.350.500.300.600.40
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D12L20W00D10W01L32W10WA·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO11/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04H·RAD01/05A·POS09/05H·RUD16/05H·FK 21/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.430.500.380.360.50
vs Stronger (10)0.200.700.200.600.200.80
vs Similar (10)0.400.300.600.200.200.40
vs Weaker (10)0.700.300.670.330.750.25
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.586.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (56)
€11m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (25)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
BBL (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (23)
€5m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
ZS (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Zrinjski vs Velež · H/A from ZRI
DateH/AGameScore
03/04/26AVelež Vs ZRI0-1
07/12/25HZRI Vs Velež1-1
27/09/25AVelež Vs ZRI1-3
03/05/25AVelež Vs ZRI0-1
01/03/25HZRI Vs Velež1-0
28/09/24AVelež Vs ZRI0-1
13/04/24HZRI Vs Velež1-0
13/11/23AVelež Vs ZRI3-0

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/26ARudar Prijedor Vs ZRI2-2
16/05/26HZRI Vs Posušje0-0
09/05/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs ZRI0-1
01/05/26HZRI Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-0
26/04/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs ZRI2-1
22/04/26HZRI Vs Borac Banja Luka1-1
18/04/26ASloga Doboj Vs ZRI0-3
11/04/26AFK Sarajevo Vs ZRI2-1
03/04/26AVelež Vs ZRI0-1
22/03/26HZRI Vs Rudar Prijedor1-0

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo2-3
16/05/26HVEL Vs Rudar Prijedor4-2
09/05/26APosušje Vs VEL1-1
01/05/26HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina1-0
25/04/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-0
21/04/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg3-0
18/04/26ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL2-2
11/04/26HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj0-0
03/04/26HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
22/03/26AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL1-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.70
HomeWWDWD1.84
AwayLWLWD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%48%48%
AVG goals2.202.082.32
Over 1.5 %70%76%64%
Over 2.5 %38%32%44%
Over 3.5 %14%8%20%
Scored1.221.361.08
Conceded0.980.721.24
BTTS40%48%32%
Clean Sheet38%40%36%
Corners8.507.409.60
Cards4.424.334.50
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWL1.38
HomeDWWWL1.64
AwayWLDDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.162.082.24
Over 1.5 %54%44%64%
Over 2.5 %38%36%40%
Over 3.5 %22%28%16%
Scored1.141.241.04
Conceded1.020.841.20
BTTS42%32%52%
Clean Sheet32%52%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
5152.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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