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Zurrieq vs Gudja United Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Zurrieq
Zurrieq
Vs
51%
20%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gudja United
Gudja United
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Zurrieq’s recent win over Mgarr United fuels confidence, while Gudja United’s two-game winning streak suggests they will not be easily subdued. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 4.4 goals and a 28% chance of six or more. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 7.2% probability. Home advantage is clear: Zurrieq’s home form is strong, and Gudja United’s away form against stronger opponents shows 1.79 goals scored and 1.36 conceded on average. The favoured result is a home win, with a 51% probability, a draw at 20%, and an away win at 29%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 94%, Under 7.5 at 92%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 87.2%, Away over 0.5 goals at 85.3%, Home +2 handicap at 84.7%, Under 6.5 at 84.2%, and Over 2.5 at 81.7%. Each selection carries its own probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a lively contest.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zurrieq win
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gudja United win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZurrieqZurrieq

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L13L30W12L20W33D21W03L42WH·MGA01/02A·SIR07/02A·PIE14/02A·GUD21/02A·VIT28/02A·MTA07/03H·ZEB15/03H·MAR01/04A·SAN12/04H·MGA18/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.771.642.141.751.44
vs Stronger (25)1.601.761.581.921.621.62
vs Similar (3)2.672.672.003.504.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L00D03L12L33D30W12L20W32WA·PIE31/01H·SWI08/02H·MGA14/02H·ZUR21/02A·SAN28/02A·MAR08/03H·MTA15/03H·ZEB04/04A·MGA12/04A·VIT18/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.271.001.191.791.36
vs Stronger (27)1.411.261.001.151.791.36
vs Similar (3)1.001.331.001.33--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%2%04%112%217%319%417%528%6+
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
94.0%
Under 1.5
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
81.7%
Under 2.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
64.4%
Under 3.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
78.9%
No
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.9%
1-1
6.4%
3-1
6.0%
3-2
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
4.4%
2-0
3.8%
Zurrieq goals ↓
Gudja United goals →
01234
01.8%1.7%2.2%1.4%0.7%
12.4%6.4%5.6%3.5%1.7%
23.8%7.2%6.9%4.4%2.1%
33.1%6.0%5.8%3.7%1.8%
42.0%3.8%3.6%2.3%1.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zurrieq goals (down), columns = Gudja United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Zurrieq is 0.23 points worse than Gudja United in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.45).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Zurrieq is 0.32 goals better than Gudja United in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.32).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Zurrieq is 0.59 goals worse than Gudja United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zurrieq or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
20%
29%
covers Zurrieq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq or Gudja United
79.9%
Avg Implied -
51%
20%
29%
covers Zurrieq + Gudja United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gudja United
49.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
20%
29%
covers Draw + Gudja United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 3.5
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5
Over
85.3%
Under
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5
Over
57.1%
Under
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 3.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Zurrieq, so a minus line means Zurrieq give that many goals of a start and Gudja United receive them. At -1, Zurrieq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zurrieq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zurrieq)
Zurrieq -2
17.3%
Draw -2
14.8%
Gudja United +2
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zurrieq)
Zurrieq -1
32.2%
Draw -1
18.4%
Gudja United +1
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zurrieq)
Zurrieq +1
70.7%
Draw +1
14.0%
Gudja United -1
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zurrieq)
Zurrieq +2
84.7%
Draw +2
8.7%
Gudja United -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZurrieqZurrieq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L03L10W12L10W12L11D02L11DH·MGA01/02A·SIR07/02A·PIE14/02A·GUD21/02A·VIT28/02A·MTA07/03H·ZEB15/03H·MAR01/04A·SAN12/04H·MGA18/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.000.361.000.751.00
vs Stronger (25)0.521.040.330.830.691.23
vs Similar (3)1.001.330.502.002.000.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.00--0.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L00D01L10W22D20W11D10W20WA·PIE31/01H·SWI08/02H·MGA14/02H·ZUR21/02A·SAN28/02A·MAR08/03H·MTA15/03H·ZEB04/04A·MGA12/04A·VIT18/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.310.690.930.64
vs Stronger (27)0.630.670.310.690.930.64
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.330.67--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZurrieqZurrieq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D10W20W00D10W21W10W01L31WH·MGA01/02A·SIR07/02A·PIE14/02A·GUD21/02A·VIT28/02A·MTA07/03H·ZEB15/03H·MAR01/04A·SAN12/04H·MGA18/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.771.291.141.000.44
vs Stronger (25)1.080.721.251.080.920.38
vs Similar (3)1.671.331.501.502.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D02L02L11D10W01L10W12LA·PIE31/01H·SWI08/02H·MGA14/02H·ZUR21/02A·SAN28/02A·MAR08/03H·MTA15/03H·ZEB04/04A·MGA12/04A·VIT18/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.600.690.500.860.71
vs Stronger (27)0.780.590.690.460.860.71
vs Similar (3)0.670.670.670.67--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.594.0%-------
Under 7.592.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals91.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals87.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals85.3%-------
Home +2 handicap84.7%-------
Under 6.584.2%-------
Over 2.581.7%-------
Home or Away79.9%-------
BTTS Yes78.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals75.8%-------
Under 5.571.7%-------
Home over 1.5 goals71.3%-------
Home or Draw70.7%-------
Home +1 handicap70.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
Zurrieq and Gudja United have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Zurrieq and Gudja United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Zurrieq and Gudja United have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
ZUR wins
0
Draws
1
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zurrieq vs Gudja United · H/A from ZUR
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/26AGudja United Vs ZUR0-3
13/12/25AGudja United Vs ZUR1-0
19/10/24AGudja United Vs ZUR1-3

ZurrieqZurrieq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HZUR Vs Mgarr United4-2
12/04/26ASanta Lucía Vs ZUR3-0
01/04/26HZUR Vs Marsa2-1
15/03/26HZUR Vs Zebbug Rangers3-3
07/03/26AMtarfa Vs ZUR0-2
28/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs ZUR2-1
21/02/26AGudja United Vs ZUR0-3
14/02/26APietà Hotspurs Vs ZUR3-1
07/02/26ASirens Vs ZUR1-0
01/02/26HZUR Vs Mgarr United1-1

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs GU2-3
12/04/26AMgarr United Vs GU0-2
04/04/26HGU Vs Zebbug Rangers1-2
15/03/26HGU Vs Mtarfa3-0
08/03/26AMarsa Vs GU3-3
28/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs GU2-1
21/02/26HGU Vs Zurrieq0-3
14/02/26HGU Vs Mgarr United0-0
08/02/26HGU Vs Swieqi United0-2
31/01/26APietà Hotspurs Vs GU1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zurrieq
Zurrieq
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.32
HomeDDDWW1.04
AwayLWLWL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%25%50%
AVG goals3.143.253.04
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.521.381.65
Conceded1.621.881.38
BTTS58%71%46%
Clean Sheet24%17%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Gudja United
Gudja United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.18
HomeLDLWL1.04
AwayDLDWW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%28%32%
AVG goals2.862.882.84
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.261.201.32
Conceded1.601.681.52
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AttardAttard00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
2SirensSirens00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
3Mgarr UnitedMgarr United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
5ZurrieqZurrieq00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
7St. AndrewsSt. Andrews00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MelitaMelita00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
12Fgura UnitedFgura United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
13Gudja UnitedGudja United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
15Victoria HotspursVictoria Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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