Zurrieq vs Mtarfa Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2022

Time: 18:30

Final 1-0

Zurrieq

36%

28%

36%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Mtarfa

Malta: Challenge League

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zurrieq win✓ Hit

36.0%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

28.3%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Mtarfa win✗ Miss

35.7%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zurrieq

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.7

Avg scored

1.8

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.83	1.83	1.00	2.33	2.67	1.33
vs Stronger (5)	1.40	2.00	1.00	2.33	2.00	1.50
vs Similar (1)	4.00	1.00	-	-	4.00	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	0% (-26pp vs league)

This opponent (Mtarfa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mtarfa

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	1.00	1.33	0.67	0.33	1.33
vs Stronger (3)	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50
vs Similar (3)	1.67	1.67	2.00	1.00	1.00	3.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	33% (+7pp vs league)

This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

76.3%

Under 1.5

23.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

50.6%

Under 2.5

49.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

28.5%

Under 3.5

71.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

56.0%

44.0%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

13.5%

2-1

8.3%

1-2

8.2%

0-0

8.0%

1-0 ✓

7.9%

0-1

7.8%

2-0

6.2%

0-2

6.1%

Zurrieq goals ↓

	Mtarfa goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	7.8%	6.1%	2.7%	0.9%
1	7.9%	13%	8.2%	3.7%	1.2%
2	6.2%	8.3%	5.6%	2.5%	0.8%
3	2.8%	3.7%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.9%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zurrieq goals (down), columns = Mtarfa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Sliema Wanderers

2.78

Naxxar Lions

2.22

Swieqi United

1.79

Zejtun Corinthians

1.74

Tarxien Rainbows

1.70

Fgura United

1.46

St. Andrews

1.43

Lija Athletic

1.39

Attard

1.32

Melita

1.26

Marsa

1.25

San Gwann

1.21

Zurrieq

1.19

Qrendi

1.11

Marsaskala

1.04

Mqabba

0.79

Vittoriosa Stars

0.79

Mtarfa

0.75

Zurrieq is 0.44 points better than Mtarfa in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Sliema Wanderers

2.44

Naxxar Lions

2.15

Tarxien Rainbows

2.04

Fgura United

2.04

Swieqi United

1.89

Zejtun Corinthians

1.89

Lija Athletic

1.82

Marsaskala

1.79

Melita

1.56

Marsa

1.43

Zurrieq

1.41

Attard

1.39

Qrendi

1.36

St. Andrews

1.32

San Gwann

1.18

Mqabba

1.04

Vittoriosa Stars

0.96

Mtarfa

0.75

Zurrieq is 0.66 goals better than Mtarfa in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 0.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Sliema Wanderers

0.52

Naxxar Lions

1.04

Tarxien Rainbows

1.19

Melita

1.33

Swieqi United

1.36

Fgura United

1.39

St. Andrews

1.43

Marsa

1.50

Mtarfa

1.61

San Gwann

1.61

Attard

1.61

Zejtun Corinthians

1.67

Qrendi

1.86

Lija Athletic

1.93

Mqabba

2.00

Marsaskala

2.04

Vittoriosa Stars

2.04

Zurrieq

2.22

Zurrieq is 0.62 goals worse than Mtarfa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.22 vs 1.61).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zurrieq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.2

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.25	1.00	1.50	1.00	1.00
vs Stronger (3)	1.00	1.33	1.00	1.50	1.00	1.00
vs Similar (1)	1.00	1.00	-	-	1.00	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	0% (-26pp vs league)

This opponent (Mtarfa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mtarfa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.6

Avg scored

0.2

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.20	0.40	0.33	0.33	0.00	0.50
vs Stronger (3)	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50
vs Similar (2)	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	-	-
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	60% (+34pp vs league)

This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Zurrieq over/under 0.5 HT

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Zurrieq over/under 1.5 HT

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Zurrieq over/under 2.5 HT

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mtarfa over/under 0.5 HT

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mtarfa over/under 1.5 HT

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mtarfa over/under 2.5 HT

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zurrieq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.00	0.00	1.50	2.00	0.50
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	1.33	0.00	1.50	1.00	1.00
vs Similar (1)	3.00	0.00	-	-	3.00	0.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	25% (-1pp vs league)

This opponent (Mtarfa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mtarfa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.8

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.60	0.20	1.00	0.33	0.00	0.00
vs Stronger (3)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
vs Similar (2)	1.50	0.50	1.50	0.50	-	-
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	80% (+54pp vs league)

This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Zurrieq over/under 0.5 2H

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Zurrieq over/under 1.5 2H

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Zurrieq over/under 2.5 2H

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mtarfa over/under 0.5 2H

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mtarfa over/under 1.5 2H

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mtarfa over/under 2.5 2H

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	76.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss
Under 3.5	71.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SW (25)

€7m

NL (16)

€1m

TR (8)

€1m

SU (2)

€0m

ZUR (1)

€0m

FU (1)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SW (11)

€3m

NL (4)

€0m

TR (2)

€0m

SU (2)

€0m

FU (1)

€0m

ZUR (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SW (4)

€2m

NL (5)

€0m

TR (2)

€0m

SU (0)

€0m

ZUR (0)

€0m

FU (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SW (10)

€2m

NL (7)

€1m

TR (4)

€0m

ZUR (1)

€0m

SU (0)

€0m

FU (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings

ZUR wins

Draws

MTA wins

Head-to-head

Zurrieq vs Mtarfa · H/A from ZUR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
No games.

Zurrieq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/10/22	H	ZUR Vs Attard	1-2
09/10/22	A	Fgura United Vs ZUR	1-4
10/09/22	A	Marsaskala Vs ZUR	1-2
06/09/22	H	ZUR Vs Tarxien Rainbows	1-1
02/09/22	H	ZUR Vs Naxxar Lions	1-4
28/08/22	A	Swieqi United Vs ZUR	2-2

Mtarfa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
15/10/22	A	Marsaskala Vs MTA	3-1
09/10/22	H	MTA Vs Tarxien Rainbows	2-1
10/09/22	H	MTA Vs Swieqi United	2-1
07/09/22	A	Lija Athletic Vs MTA	0-0
04/09/22	H	MTA Vs Melita	0-0
28/08/22	A	San Gwann Vs MTA	1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zurrieq

Malta: Challenge League

Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LDWWL	1.33
Home	LDL	0.33
Away	DWW	2.33

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	33%	0%	67%
AVG goals	3.67	3.33	4.00
Over 1.5 %	100%	100%	100%
Over 2.5 %	83%	67%	100%
Over 3.5 %	50%	33%	67%
Scored	1.83	1.00	2.67
Conceded	1.83	2.33	1.33
BTTS	100%	100%	100%
Clean Sheet	0%	0%	0%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Mtarfa

Malta: Challenge League

Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DDWWL	1.33
Home	DWW	2.33
Away	LDL	0.33

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	33%	67%	0%
AVG goals	1.83	2.00	1.67
Over 1.5 %	50%	67%	33%
Over 2.5 %	50%	67%	33%
Over 3.5 %	17%	0%	33%
Scored	0.83	1.33	0.33
Conceded	1.00	0.67	1.33
BTTS	50%	67%	33%
Clean Sheet	33%	33%	33%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Sliema Wanderers	27	75	89%	2.8	66	14	+52	3.0	78%	63%	37%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	7	3	2	2	2.4	0.5	-
2	Naxxar Lions	27	60	70%	2.2	58	28	+30	3.2	89%	67%	37%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	1	2.1	1.0	-
3	Swieqi United	28	50	50%	1.8	53	38	+15	3.2	93%	61%	36%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.9	1.4	-
4	Zejtun Corinthians	27	47	56%	1.7	51	45	+6	3.6	89%	81%	48%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.9	1.7	-
5	Tarxien Rainbows	27	46	48%	1.7	55	32	+23	3.2	85%	67%	41%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	2.0	1.2	-
6	Fgura United	28	41	39%	1.5	57	39	+18	3.4	86%	61%	46%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.4	-
7	St. Andrews	28	40	39%	1.4	37	40	-3	2.8	82%	46%	32%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.4	-
8	Lija Athletic	28	39	39%	1.4	51	54	-3	3.8	86%	68%	54%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.9	-
9	Attard	28	37	36%	1.3	39	45	-6	3.0	75%	61%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.6	-
10	Marsa	28	35	32%	1.2	40	42	-2	2.9	86%	61%	39%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.5	-
11	Melita	27	34	33%	1.3	42	36	+6	2.9	78%	56%	30%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	1.3	-
12	San Gwann	28	34	32%	1.2	33	45	-12	2.8	82%	50%	32%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.6	-
13	Zurrieq	27	32	37%	1.2	38	60	-22	3.6	85%	81%	48%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	2.2	-
14	Qrendi	28	31	29%	1.1	38	52	-14	3.2	75%	54%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.9	-
15	Marsaskala	28	29	25%	1.0	50	57	-7	3.8	96%	82%	61%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	2.0	-
16	Mqabba	28	22	21%	0.8	29	56	-27	3.0	71%	61%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	-
17	Vittoriosa Stars	28	22	21%	0.8	27	57	-30	3.0	79%	61%	36%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	-
18	Mtarfa	28	21	18%	0.8	21	45	-24	2.4	61%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.6	-

Malta: Challenge League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

← all matches

Zurrieq vs Mtarfa Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zurrieq

Mtarfa

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zurrieq

Mtarfa

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zurrieq

Mtarfa

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Zurrieq

Mtarfa

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature