The model’s most pronounced edge lies in the “Away under 2.5 HT goals” pick, where a 97.1% chance is 3% above the market. Heidenheim’s recent five-match run, still bruised by a 1-4 loss to Hertha BSC, shows a strong home scoring average of 4.0 goals per game against weaker opposition, while conceding 3.0. Dynamo Dresden, playing away against stronger opponents, averages only 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded. The Pythia forecast favours a home win with a 55% probability, a draw at 23%, and an away win also at 23%. The expected total goals is 3.4, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1% probability. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals95.6%, Under 7.594.2%, Away under 3.5 goals93.3%, Home over 0.5 goals92.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals92.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals91.9%, and Home +2 handicap90.8%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, with no other figures repeated.
Results analysis
The model’s forecast proved spot on, with 1. FC Heidenheim securing a 5-3 victory over Dynamo Dresden, the result matching the predicted home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 54% probability and was correct. The team’s recent form, a win in their last match, helped extend their positive run. The model’s selections largely delivered: Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.9%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.4%) hit, Under 7.5 (94.2%) missed, Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%) hit, Home over 0.5 goals (92.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.6%) missed, Home +2 handicap (90.8%) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (88.3%) hit. The match confirmed the model’s overall accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim win✓ Hit
53.6%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.35
Edge
+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.42
Superbet
2.40
Dafabet
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.66
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
Pinnacle
3.89
1xBet
3.76
Marathonbet
3.76
Unibet
3.70
Dynamo Dresden win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.70
Edge
-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.85
Dafabet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.27
1.60
2.27
1.20
2.27
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
3.00
1.40
2.80
1.25
3.25
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.90
1.44
1.89
1.18
1.91
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
3.00
4.00
3.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.50
1.87
1.13
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.62
1.46
2.00
1.00
1.23
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
@ 1.15+4.9%
Under 1.5
13.4%
@ 5.11-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Under
Pinnacle
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.6%
@ 1.51+4.7%
Under 2.5
33.4%
@ 2.45-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.42
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.8%
@ 2.29+3.7%
Under 3.5
55.2%
@ 1.60-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.43
Superbet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
@ 1.44+1.4%
No
34.4%
@ 2.59-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
No
BetVictor
2.70
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 7.09+3.6%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.77+4.3%
2-0
7.1%@ 13.50+3.7%
3-1
6.6%@ 14.94+3.6%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.06+1.9%
1-2
6.1%@ 9.53+1.4%
1-0
5.9%@ 11.29+1.9%
3-0
4.9%@ 23.70+3.0%
1. FC Heidenheim goals ↓
Dynamo Dresden goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
1
5.9%
10.0%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.1%
9.5%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.9%
6.6%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.6%
3.4%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Heidenheim goals (down), columns = Dynamo Dresden goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.14
Hannover 96
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Energie Cottbus
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.07
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.44 points better than Dynamo Dresden in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.18
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.67
FC St. Pauli
1.62
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Energie Cottbus
1.12
VfL Osnabrück
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.09 goals better than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
VfL Wolfsburg
0.93
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.26
Hannover 96
1.29
Hertha BSC
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Energie Cottbus
1.82
VfL Osnabrück
1.87
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.35 goals better than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim
For 4.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.8 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dynamo Dresden
For 5.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Heidenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.8
9.4
3.5
3.0
4.0
20.8
20.6
21.0
vs Stronger (17)
8.7
6.9
10.3
3.6
3.1
4.1
19.3
18.9
19.7
vs Similar (32)
9.3
9.8
8.9
3.5
2.9
4.0
21.8
22.0
21.7
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
12.0
12.0
-
% over line
40%
32%
48%
52%
36%
68%
44%
44%
44%
% under line
60%
68%
52%
48%
64%
32%
56%
56%
56%
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
9.6
11.9
4.0
4.5
3.5
23.2
24.2
22.2
vs Stronger (8)
11.1
8.7
12.6
4.0
6.0
2.8
22.4
24.7
21.0
vs Similar (42)
10.6
9.7
11.7
4.0
4.3
3.7
23.4
24.2
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
54%
67%
60%
77%
42%
58%
73%
42%
% under line
40%
46%
33%
40%
23%
58%
42%
27%
58%
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Energie Cottbus
12.5
VfL Wolfsburg
11.5
VfL Osnabrück
10.9
Dynamo Dresden
10.7
VfL Bochum
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
1. FC Nürnberg
9.7
FC St. Pauli
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
VfL Bochum
4.9
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.8
Karlsruher SC
4.7
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.1
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.7
FC St. Pauli
3.7
Energie Cottbus
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Holstein Kiel
26.4
Hannover 96
26.3
Energie Cottbus
26.0
Arminia Bielefeld
25.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.5
VfL Osnabrück
25.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.4
Hertha BSC
24.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.1
SV Darmstadt 98
23.8
1. FC Magdeburg
23.7
Karlsruher SC
23.3
Dynamo Dresden
23.2
VfL Bochum
23.0
1. FC Heidenheim
20.8
VfL Wolfsburg
20.7
FC St. Pauli
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.7%
@ 1.66+2.9%
Under 9.5
41.3%
@ 2.10-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.2%
Under 3.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.2%
Under 21.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
1. FC Heidenheim or Draw✓ Hit
79.7%
Avg Implied 65.2% · @ 1.43
Edge
+14.5%
54%
23%
23%
covers 1. FC Heidenheim + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
1xBet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
1. FC Heidenheim or Dynamo Dresden✓ Hit
80.8%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.25
Edge
+6.3%
54%
23%
23%
covers 1. FC Heidenheim + Dynamo Dresden
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Draw or Dynamo Dresden✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.55
Edge
-20.8%
54%
23%
23%
covers Draw + Dynamo Dresden
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.6%
@ 1.16+12.9%
Under
7.4%
@ 4.59-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.04
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
73.4%
@ 1.86+23.3%
Under
26.6%
@ 1.86-23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
48.3%
@ 3.69+23.1%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.24-23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.82
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
26.5%
@ 8.15+15.1%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.05-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.30
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.8%
@ 1.20+0.7%
Under
22.2%
@ 4.07-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.51
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 2.03-1.6%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.73+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.3%
@ 4.21-2.8%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.19+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.37
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Dynamo Dresden over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 9.59-3.1%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.40
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to 1. FC Heidenheim, so a minus line means 1. FC Heidenheim give that many goals of a start and Dynamo Dresden receive them. At -1, 1. FC Heidenheim must win by two or more to land; a one-goal 1. FC Heidenheim win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (1. FC Heidenheim)Actual: Draw
1. FC Heidenheim -2
23.4%
@ 8.58+12.9%
Draw -2
17.5%
@ 6.46+3.6%
Dynamo Dresden +2
59.1%
@ 1.18-16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Away
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (1. FC Heidenheim)Actual: 1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim -1
40.9%
@ 4.13+19.3%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 4.24-1.4%
Dynamo Dresden +1
39.5%
@ 1.55-17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.54
Handicap +1 (1. FC Heidenheim)Actual: 1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim +1
79.7%
@ 1.43+17.2%
Draw +1
11.1%
@ 4.55-8.5%
Dynamo Dresden -1
9.2%
@ 5.03-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Superbet
4.85
Handicap +2 (1. FC Heidenheim)Actual: 1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim +2
90.8%
@ 1.13+10.8%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 7.67-5.9%
Dynamo Dresden -2
3.3%
@ 11.05-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.13
0.73
1.07
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.44
0.60
1.20
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.95
0.56
0.89
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.07
0.40
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.58
1.08
0.38
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.25+3.9%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 3.59-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 2.20-4.2%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.62+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
William Hil
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.3%
@ 4.86+1.2%
Under 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.15-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Unibet
4.90
Betfair
4.80
Under
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.1%
@ 1.77-5.4%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.96+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 4.75-5.6%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.15+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 12.50-3.0%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.2%
@ 1.87-3.4%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.84+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 5.35+1.7%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.12-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
1xBet
5.30
Betano
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 15.08-2.2%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.13
0.87
1.20
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.56
0.80
1.60
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.95
0.89
1.00
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.80
0.73
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.88
0.92
0.62
0.46
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.3%
@ 1.15+3.0%
Under 0.5
15.7%
@ 5.00-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.12
Under
Superbet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Betano
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.4%
@ 1.74+5.7%
Under 1.5
40.6%
@ 2.02-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.8%
@ 3.20-2.2%
Under 2.5
73.2%
@ 1.31+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
William Hil
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.0%
@ 1.53-2.6%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.35+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Under
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.1%
@ 3.54+1.9%
Under
71.9%
@ 1.25-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
7.4%
@ 9.10-2.8%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.63-0.6%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.16+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
1.97
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.6%
@ 3.87-7.3%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.21+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 9.50+1.8%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.04-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-1.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
92.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
90.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
87.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-5.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
86.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Unibet
1.15
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.3%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.12
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.8%
1.25
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.7%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
79.7%
1.43
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
1xBet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.7%
1.43
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+17.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
79.7%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.1%
1.25
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
76.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-10.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
73.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-15.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.9%
1.25
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
-1.9%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
1.38
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+4.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Heidenheim
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jan Schöppner75%
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Oualid Mhamdi25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Luca Kerber0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oualid Mhamdi50%
Luca Kerber33%
Patrick Mainka25%
Mathias Honsak25%
Jan Schöppner25%
Mikkel Kaufmann0%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Marcel Costly0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Marvin Pieringer0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Jonas Föhrenbach33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Luca Kerber33%
Paul Hennrich33%
Mathias Honsak25%
Marcel Costly25%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikkel Kaufmann67%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Luca Kerber0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Dynamo Dresden
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Sterner67%
Vincent Vermeij33%
Robert Wagner33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Ben Bobzien0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Keller100%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Vincent Vermeij0%
Nils Fröling0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jonas Sterner33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jakob Lemmer33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€154m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
HB (24)
€25m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
EC (26)
€11m
VO (25)
€10m
1. FC Heidenheim's squad is €14m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€33m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (10)
€56m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
HB (8)
€8m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
EC (10)
€4m
SGF (6)
€4m
1. FC Heidenheim's attack is €8m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€15m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (8)
€32m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
VO (7)
€3m
EC (4)
€2m
1. FC Heidenheim's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€7m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (15)
€66m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
HB (10)
€13m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
EC (12)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
1. FC Heidenheim's defence is €3m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€12m vs €8m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Karlsruher SC
Eintracht Braunschweig
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
VfL Osnabrück
FC St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98