The forecast points to a high-scoring outing, with the model projecting an average of 3.2 goals and the most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% chance, while the match result favoured by the model is an away win. 1. FC Köln’s home form shows 1.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded against similar opposition, whereas 1899 Hoffenheim’s away numbers are 1.92 scored and 1.33 conceded. The home side has struggled recently, dropping points in its last five matches and losing 1-5 to Bayern München, while Hoffenheim, after a 0-4 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach, has secured two wins in five. The probabilities for the outcomes are 35% home win, 26% draw, and 39% away win. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (98% with a 6% edge), Under 7.5 (96.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.3% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.8% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.3% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (91.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.7%), and Away under 3.5 goals (86.8%).
Results analysis
The upset came as 1. FC Köln edged 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite for an away win, which had a 39% probability. The prediction was wrong. Köln’s recent win extended a mixed run, while Hoffenheim had just suffered two straight defeats. The model’s selections largely held: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit with a 98.2% chance, Under 7.5 hit at 96.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 91.8%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 89.7%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 86.8%. Only Home under 2.5 2H goals missed, despite a 95.0% probability. The final score matched the most likely 1-1, 1-2 or 2-1 outcomes, with 3-2 proving the decisive result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
1. FC Köln win✓ Hit
35.3%
Avg Implied 32.0% · @ 2.95
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Superbet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.66
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Betano
3.75
1899 Hoffenheim win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.25
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.28
SBO
2.28
Dafabet
2.27
Superbet
2.27
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1. FC Köln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.87
1.62
1.81
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
2.44
1.00
2.20
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.62
1.91
1.64
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1899 Hoffenheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.40
2.20
0.93
1.60
1.87
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.33
2.00
0.67
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (24)
2.08
1.17
2.25
1.00
1.92
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.4%
@ 1.15+2.0%
Under 1.5
16.6%
@ 5.05-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.20
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.53-0.3%
Under 2.5
38.9%
@ 2.44+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.54
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
Betfair
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.8%
@ 2.34-1.9%
Under 3.5
61.2%
@ 1.61+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
@ 1.46+0.1%
No
36.0%
@ 2.58-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
No
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 6.97+5.2%
1-2
8.6%@ 8.44+3.2%
2-1
8.1%@ 9.90+3.6%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.28+2.2%
0-1
5.8%@ 10.48+1.5%
0-2
5.6%@ 12.80+2.1%
1-0
5.5%@ 12.46+1.8%
0-0
5.3%@ 15.03+2.3%
1. FC Köln goals ↓
1899 Hoffenheim goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.8%
5.6%
3.0%
1.2%
1
5.5%
12%
8.6%
4.6%
1.9%
2
5.0%
8.1%
6.6%
3.6%
1.4%
3
2.6%
4.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Köln goals (down), columns = 1899 Hoffenheim goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
1. FC Köln is 0.85 points worse than 1899 Hoffenheim in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
1. FC Köln is 0.47 goals worse than 1899 Hoffenheim in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
1. FC Köln is 0.32 goals worse than 1899 Hoffenheim in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
1. FC Köln is 8.1 percentage points worse than 1899 Hoffenheim in terms of average possession (47% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Köln
For 5.3 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 8.7 · Total 17.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1899 Hoffenheim
For 6.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 8.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Köln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.8
10.6
4.2
4.1
4.3
20.4
20.9
20.0
vs Stronger (10)
11.4
10.6
12.2
3.1
3.0
3.2
16.9
17.8
16.0
vs Similar (34)
9.7
9.2
10.2
4.9
4.9
4.8
20.5
20.6
20.4
vs Weaker (6)
10.8
11.7
10.0
2.2
1.3
3.0
25.8
27.3
24.3
% over line
50%
40%
60%
58%
56%
60%
42%
52%
32%
% under line
50%
60%
40%
42%
44%
40%
58%
48%
68%
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1899 Hoffenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.3
3.8
3.6
4.0
22.7
22.3
23.1
vs Stronger (12)
8.3
7.8
8.8
3.9
3.7
4.2
22.0
22.5
21.5
vs Similar (37)
10.8
11.0
10.7
3.8
3.6
4.1
22.7
22.3
23.1
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
1.0
-
1.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
66%
58%
73%
58%
54%
62%
62%
58%
65%
% under line
34%
42%
27%
42%
46%
38%
38%
42%
35%
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
FC Augsburg
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.4
SV Elversberg
24.1
Hamburger SV
23.8
FC Schalke 04
23.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
21.9
FC Augsburg
21.8
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.5
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.7%
@ 1.64-0.9%
Under 9.5
44.3%
@ 2.14+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.11
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.90+16.7%
Under 3.5
34.2%
@ 1.83-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
42.1%
@ 1.94-6.1%
Under 21.5
57.9%
@ 1.80+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.72
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
1. FC Köln or Draw✓ Hit
58.1%
Avg Implied 57.8% · @ 1.63
Edge
+0.3%
35%
26%
39%
covers 1. FC Köln + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1. FC Köln or 1899 Hoffenheim✓ Hit
76.8%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
+2.6%
35%
26%
39%
covers 1. FC Köln + 1899 Hoffenheim
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Draw or 1899 Hoffenheim✗ Miss
65.1%
Avg Implied 68.0% · @ 1.39
Edge
-2.9%
35%
26%
39%
covers Draw + 1899 Hoffenheim
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.8%
@ 1.22+6.6%
Under
17.2%
@ 3.91-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.22
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.90
1xBet
3.90
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.6%
@ 2.13+8.7%
Under
47.4%
@ 1.67-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
25.9%
@ 4.66+5.9%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.17-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
BetVictor
4.75
888Sport
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1. FC Köln over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 11.07+1.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.04-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.6%
@ 1.15+5.0%
Under
14.4%
@ 4.78-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Superbet
4.75
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.7%
@ 1.81+6.0%
Under
42.3%
@ 1.93-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Betfair
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.6%
@ 3.56+4.4%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.26-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
888Sport
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 7.91+1.4%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.05-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to 1. FC Köln, so a minus line means 1. FC Köln give that many goals of a start and 1899 Hoffenheim receive them. At -1, 1. FC Köln must win by two or more to land; a one-goal 1. FC Köln win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (1. FC Köln)Actual: 1899 Hoffenheim
1. FC Köln -2
7.7%
@ 12.70+0.5%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 8.22-0.5%
1899 Hoffenheim +2
81.7%
@ 1.11-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
11.00
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (1. FC Köln)Actual: Draw
1. FC Köln -1
18.3%
@ 5.72+2.5%
Draw -1
16.6%
@ 4.84-2.1%
1899 Hoffenheim +1
65.1%
@ 1.38-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Handicap +1 (1. FC Köln)Actual: 1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln +1
58.1%
@ 1.64+3.1%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 4.15-3.4%
1899 Hoffenheim -1
23.5%
@ 3.91+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.86
Unibet
3.85
Handicap +2 (1. FC Köln)Actual: 1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln +2
76.5%
@ 1.21+1.6%
Draw +2
12.8%
@ 6.36-1.5%
1899 Hoffenheim -2
10.7%
@ 8.33-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Köln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.81
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.71
0.73
0.73
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1899 Hoffenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.73
1.40
0.33
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.33
0.33
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.54
1.42
0.33
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.9%
@ 1.26+1.7%
Under 0.5
24.1%
@ 3.63-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Under
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
William Hil
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.0%
@ 2.25-0.9%
Under 1.5
59.0%
@ 1.62+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
William Hil
2.30
Pinnacle
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Under
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 5.07-2.0%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.15+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
5.10
Under
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 1.93-0.4%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.80+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Under
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 5.67-1.9%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.10+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
5.90
Unibet
5.60
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 14.75-4.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.6%
@ 1.75-0.6%
Under
47.4%
@ 1.99+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.97
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 4.71-3.6%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.15+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 12.12-3.9%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Köln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.07
1.00
1.00
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.44
0.60
1.20
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.90
1.18
0.91
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1899 Hoffenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.62
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.7%
@ 1.15-1.0%
Under 0.5
19.3%
@ 5.16+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.4%
@ 1.74-1.5%
Under 1.5
47.6%
@ 2.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Under
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
Betano
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
25.9%
@ 3.32-2.4%
Under 2.5
74.1%
@ 1.31+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
888Sport
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.65+0.0%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.13-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.6%
@ 4.13+0.2%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.19-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.35
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
5.0%
@ 10.50-3.9%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.4%
@ 1.50-4.4%
Under
42.6%
@ 2.43+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
1xBet
2.48
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.37
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.5%
@ 3.40-3.8%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.27+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 8.53-4.7%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
86.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.4%
1.15
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
83.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.8%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.7%
1.39
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.36
-
+16.0%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
81.7%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.8%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.5%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.9%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.1%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
74.1%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-5.9%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.2%
1.23
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.17
-
-
-5.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Köln · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Said El Mala36%
Ragnar Ache23%
Jakub Kamiński19%
Luca Waldschmidt19%
Marius Bülter15%
Jan Uwe Thielmann11%
Eric Martel9%
Linton Maina8%
Alessio Castro-Montes7%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson6%
Florian Kainz6%
Tom Krauß0%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Kristoffer Lund0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eric Martel36%
Joel Schmied28%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson18%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey18%
Sebastian Sebulonsen15%
Tom Krauß15%
Jan Uwe Thielmann15%
Alessio Castro-Montes14%
Said El Mala14%
Jakub Kamiński11%
Ragnar Ache10%
Marius Bülter9%
Cenk Özkaçar7%
Denis Huseinbašić6%
Marvin Schwäbe6%
Florian Kainz6%
Kristoffer Lund6%
Linton Maina4%
Luca Waldschmidt4%
Dominique Heintz0%
Timo Hübers0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ragnar Ache16%
Luca Waldschmidt15%
Alessio Castro-Montes14%
Said El Mala11%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson9%
Marius Bülter9%
Jakub Kamiński8%
Tom Krauß7%
Rav van den Berg7%
Eric Martel6%
Florian Kainz6%
Kristoffer Lund6%
Jan Uwe Thielmann4%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Linton Maina0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ragnar Ache23%
Jakub Kamiński22%
Said El Mala19%
Marius Bülter12%
Youssoupha Niang10%
Linton Maina8%
Luca Waldschmidt8%
Jan Uwe Thielmann7%
Florian Kainz6%
Tom Krauß0%
Alessio Castro-Montes0%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Kristoffer Lund0%
Eric Martel0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
1899 Hoffenheim · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fisnik Asllani29%
Andrej Kramarić28%
Tim Lemperle26%
Grischa Prömel24%
Bazoumana Touré16%
Ozan Kabak15%
Max Moerstedt13%
Wouter Burger12%
Valentin Gendrey12%
Alexander Prass6%
Robin Hranáč3%
Albian Hajdari3%
Vladimír Coufal3%
Oliver Baumann0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Adam Hložek0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Albian Hajdari35%
Bernardo29%
Umut Tohumcu29%
Wouter Burger22%
Arthur Chaves20%
Robin Hranáč19%
Ozan Kabak19%
Grischa Prömel18%
Leon Avdullahu14%
Alexander Prass12%
Vladimír Coufal11%
Oliver Baumann11%
Max Moerstedt9%
Andrej Kramarić8%
Tim Lemperle6%
Bazoumana Touré6%
Ihlas Bebou6%
Fisnik Asllani6%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Adam Hložek0%
Valentin Gendrey0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bazoumana Touré25%
Fisnik Asllani23%
Andrej Kramarić22%
Vladimír Coufal20%
Wouter Burger19%
Valentin Gendrey12%
Tim Lemperle6%
Albian Hajdari6%
Muhammed Damar6%
Alexander Prass6%
Grischa Prömel6%
Leon Avdullahu3%
Oliver Baumann0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Ozan Kabak0%
Adam Hložek0%
Robin Hranáč0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Cole Campbell0%
Max Moerstedt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fisnik Asllani26%
Ozan Kabak15%
Andrej Kramarić14%
Grischa Prömel12%
Tim Lemperle10%
Wouter Burger9%
Bazoumana Touré9%
Alexander Prass6%
Max Moerstedt4%
Oliver Baumann0%
Vladimír Coufal0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Adam Hložek0%
Valentin Gendrey0%
Robin Hranáč0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1. FC Köln's squad is €175m less valuable than 1899 Hoffenheim's (€133m vs €309m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
1. FC Köln's attack is €39m less valuable than 1899 Hoffenheim's (€72m vs €111m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
1. FC Köln's midfield is €87m less valuable than 1899 Hoffenheim's (€19m vs €105m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
1. FC Köln's defence is €49m less valuable than 1899 Hoffenheim's (€43m vs €92m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart