This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
1.19
0.69
1.29
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.52
0.81
1.42
0.67
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
1.12
0.67
0.67
0.60
1.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.9%
0-0
7.7%
0-1 ✓
7.4%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
5.7%
1. FC Nürnberg goals ↓
FC St. Pauli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.4%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
1
7.9%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.5%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.0%
4.0%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Nürnberg goals (down), columns = FC St. Pauli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.85
1. FC Nürnberg
1.76
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld
1.41
VfL Bochum
1.41
Duisburg
1.41
Regensburg
1.41
Union Berlin
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.26
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.18
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.15
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.03
1. FC Nürnberg is 0.50 points better than FC St. Pauli in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Holstein Kiel
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.68
Union Berlin
1.59
Regensburg
1.56
Duisburg
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Bochum
1.09
FC St. Pauli
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue
1.03
SV Sandhausen
1.03
1. FC Nürnberg is 0.76 goals better than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SV Sandhausen
0.97
1. FC Nürnberg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
Ingolstadt
1.32
Union Berlin
1.35
Arminia Bielefeld
1.38
FC St. Pauli
1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.44
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
Regensburg
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.62
Duisburg
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.65
1. FC Nürnberg is 0.26 goals better than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg
For 5.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC St. Pauli
For 6.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Nürnberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
29.0
30.5
27.5
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.5
9.5
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
30.5
30.5
-
vs Weaker (17)
11.0
-
11.0
0.5
0.0
0.9
27.5
-
27.5
% over line
75%
50%
100%
4%
0%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
50%
0%
96%
100%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.0
12.5
0.2
0.3
0.2
23.8
24.5
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
11.8
11.0
12.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
23.8
24.5
23.0
vs Weaker (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
50%
100%
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
50%
0%
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC St. Pauli
11.8
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.6
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.4
1. FC Nürnberg
10.2
Erzgebirge Aue
10.2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.0
Regensburg
9.8
VfL Bochum
9.8
SV Darmstadt 98
9.7
SV Sandhausen
9.2
Arminia Bielefeld
9.0
1. FC Heidenheim
8.8
Union Berlin
8.8
Ingolstadt
8.8
Dynamo Dresden
8.4
Holstein Kiel
8.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
8.0
Duisburg
7.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
6.4
Erzgebirge Aue
5.8
Holstein Kiel
5.2
Regensburg
5.2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.0
Dynamo Dresden
4.8
Duisburg
4.4
SV Sandhausen
4.4
Ingolstadt
4.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.0
SV Darmstadt 98
3.9
Arminia Bielefeld
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
Union Berlin
3.8
1. FC Nürnberg
3.8
VfL Bochum
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
39.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
36.8
Eintracht Braunschweig
35.4
Union Berlin
33.0
Holstein Kiel
32.8
Erzgebirge Aue
32.8
Ingolstadt
32.8
Regensburg
31.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
30.2
Dynamo Dresden
29.8
SV Darmstadt 98
29.6
1. FC Heidenheim
29.2
1. FC Nürnberg
29.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
29.0
VfL Bochum
26.0
Duisburg
25.8
Arminia Bielefeld
25.4
FC St. Pauli
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.6%
Under 9.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.3%
Under 3.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
95.0%
Under 21.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Nürnberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.67
0.40
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.41
0.56
0.44
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (11)
0.36
0.45
0.60
0.40
0.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.47
0.31
0.44
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.43
0.33
0.50
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.62
0.33
0.33
0.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Nürnberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.87
1.07
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.65
1.00
0.78
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.91
0.80
1.20
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.38
1.08
0.17
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Nürnberg · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Ali Zoma50%
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Tim Janisch25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javier Fernandez50%
Rayan Ghrieb33%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Piet Scobel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Ole Becker67%
Fynn Otto33%
Julian Justvan25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Piet Scobel25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Mohamed Ali Zoma0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Javier Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Adam Markhiev0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
FC St. Pauli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
1FK (26)
€28m
SD9 (28)
€24m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
1. FC Nürnberg's squad is €6m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€40m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (10)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Nürnberg's attack is €5m more valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€14m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (6)
€26m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Nürnberg's midfield is €2m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€13m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
1. FC Nürnberg's defence is €9m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€12m vs €21m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Fortuna Düsseldorf
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Duisburg
Union Berlin
Ingolstadt
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Sandhausen
1. FC Heidenheim
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Erzgebirge Aue
Eintracht Braunschweig
1. FC Kaiserslautern