This opponent (Brondby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brondby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.03
2.14
1.07
1.94
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.12
1.86
1.29
1.56
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.43
0.93
2.43
0.86
2.43
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
10.6%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
4.9%
Aarhus goals ↓
Brondby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
11%
9.2%
4.8%
1.9%
1
6.6%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.0%
6.2%
4.8%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.1%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus goals (down), columns = Brondby goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Midtjylland
1.97
Brondby
1.94
FC Copenhagen
1.88
FC Nordsjaelland
1.81
Aarhus
1.38
Viborg
1.25
Randers FC
1.24
Silkeborg
1.12
Lyngby
1.12
Vejle
1.12
Odense
1.00
Hvidovre
0.62
Aarhus is 0.56 points worse than Brondby in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Copenhagen
2.00
FC Midtjylland
1.94
FC Nordsjaelland
1.88
Brondby
1.88
Aarhus
1.31
Randers FC
1.27
Silkeborg
1.22
Lyngby
1.22
Viborg
1.19
Odense
1.16
Vejle
1.00
Hvidovre
0.84
Aarhus is 0.56 goals worse than Brondby in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Nordsjaelland
1.06
Brondby
1.09
Vejle
1.12
FC Copenhagen
1.18
FC Midtjylland
1.34
Aarhus
1.44
Viborg
1.50
Odense
1.50
Randers FC
1.55
Silkeborg
1.56
Lyngby
1.66
Hvidovre
1.91
Aarhus is 0.34 goals worse than Brondby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
57%
Brondby
55%
FC Copenhagen
54%
Silkeborg
53%
Hvidovre
51%
Viborg
50%
Odense
49%
Randers FC
49%
Aarhus
49%
FC Midtjylland
47%
Lyngby
47%
Vejle
40%
Aarhus is 5.8 percentage points worse than Brondby in terms of average possession (49% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aarhus
For 4.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brondby
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aarhus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.6
7.9
4.6
4.8
4.4
23.5
23.8
23.3
vs Stronger (12)
9.0
10.0
7.8
5.1
5.0
5.2
22.5
22.7
22.2
vs Similar (32)
8.5
9.0
8.1
4.4
4.7
4.2
23.1
23.2
23.0
vs Weaker (6)
9.5
11.7
7.3
4.5
4.7
4.3
27.8
28.7
27.0
% over line
35%
46%
24%
70%
72%
68%
61%
62%
60%
% under line
65%
54%
76%
30%
28%
32%
39%
38%
40%
This opponent (Brondby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brondby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
4.0
3.9
4.2
20.8
19.3
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
9.1
9.9
8.4
4.6
5.1
4.1
22.3
21.2
23.2
vs Weaker (24)
11.0
10.5
11.6
3.5
2.8
4.3
19.2
17.5
21.3
% over line
52%
52%
52%
52%
44%
60%
44%
32%
56%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
48%
56%
40%
56%
68%
44%
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lyngby
10.9
FC Copenhagen
10.7
Odense
10.7
Randers FC
10.4
Hvidovre
10.2
Vejle
10.2
Brondby
10.0
FC Nordsjaelland
9.9
Viborg
9.4
Silkeborg
9.3
Aarhus
8.8
FC Midtjylland
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Midtjylland
4.7
Aarhus
4.6
Vejle
4.4
FC Nordsjaelland
4.2
Brondby
4.2
Odense
4.1
Lyngby
4.1
FC Copenhagen
4.1
Viborg
4.0
Randers FC
3.6
Silkeborg
3.4
Hvidovre
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vejle
24.3
Lyngby
23.6
Aarhus
23.5
Randers FC
23.2
Hvidovre
23.0
FC Midtjylland
22.0
Viborg
21.8
FC Nordsjaelland
21.3
Odense
21.0
Brondby
20.8
FC Copenhagen
20.2
Silkeborg
17.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.0%
Under 9.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.9%
Under 3.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.8%
Under 21.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aarhus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.67
0.44
0.67
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Brondby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brondby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.17
1.07
0.14
1.06
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.19
0.86
0.29
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.14
1.29
0.00
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
83% (+60pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brondby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brondby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brondby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aarhus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.56
1.00
0.89
0.67
0.22
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Brondby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brondby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.87
1.07
0.93
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.79
1.14
0.86
1.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brondby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brondby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brondby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aarhus
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrick Mortensen33%
Tobias Anker23%
Tobias Bech19%
Magnus Knudsen11%
Janni Serra11%
Nicolai Poulsen8%
Frederik Tingager6%
Mikkel Duelund6%
Mads Emil Madsen5%
Felix Beijmo4%
Mikael Anderson3%
Eric Kahl3%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Bailey Peacock-Farrell0%
Mats Knoester0%
Gift Links0%
Michael Akoto0%
Peter Bjur0%
Thomas Kristensen0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Julius Beck0%
Jacob Andersen0%
Mathias Sauer0%
Tobias Bach0%
Adam Daghim0%
Luka Callø0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Kristensen43%
Nicolai Poulsen38%
Frederik Brandhof26%
Jacob Andersen26%
Eric Kahl23%
Felix Beijmo22%
Magnus Knudsen22%
Mikael Anderson16%
Mads Emil Madsen14%
Mats Knoester14%
Julius Beck14%
Tobias Bech13%
Gift Links11%
Tobias Mølgaard11%
Bailey Peacock-Farrell10%
Michael Akoto8%
Jesper Hansen7%
Mikkel Duelund6%
Patrick Mortensen3%
Frederik Tingager0%
Janni Serra0%
Peter Bjur0%
Tobias Anker0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Mathias Sauer0%
Tobias Bach0%
Adam Daghim0%
Luka Callø0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gift Links18%
Felix Beijmo15%
Patrick Mortensen12%
Frederik Brandhof11%
Mikael Anderson10%
Michael Akoto8%
Tobias Bech6%
Eric Kahl6%
Janni Serra5%
Jacob Andersen5%
Magnus Knudsen4%
Mikkel Duelund0%
Frederik Tingager0%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Nicolai Poulsen0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Mads Emil Madsen0%
Bailey Peacock-Farrell0%
Mats Knoester0%
Peter Bjur0%
Tobias Anker0%
Thomas Kristensen0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Julius Beck0%
Mathias Sauer0%
Tobias Bach0%
Adam Daghim0%
Luka Callø0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikael Anderson19%
Patrick Mortensen18%
Tobias Bech16%
Mikkel Duelund11%
Felix Beijmo7%
Mads Emil Madsen5%
Nicolai Poulsen4%
Frederik Tingager3%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Bailey Peacock-Farrell0%
Janni Serra0%
Mats Knoester0%
Magnus Knudsen0%
Gift Links0%
Michael Akoto0%
Peter Bjur0%
Eric Kahl0%
Tobias Anker0%
Thomas Kristensen0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Julius Beck0%
Jacob Andersen0%
Mathias Sauer0%
Tobias Bach0%
Adam Daghim0%
Luka Callø0%
Brondby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nicolai Vallys42%
Mathias Kvistgaarden33%
Ohi Omoijuanfo32%
Yuito Suzuki23%
Sean Klaiber13%
Daniel Wass10%
Håkon Evjen9%
Jordi Vanlerberghe8%
Marko Divković7%
Sebastian Søraas Sebulonsen7%
Filip Bundgaard7%
Josip Radošević6%
Frederik Alves Ibsen6%
Rasmus Lauritsen5%
Mathias Greve4%
Jacob Rasmussen3%
Patrick Pentz0%
Kevin Mensah0%
Thomas Mikkelsen0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Blás Riveros0%
Henrik Heggheim0%
Yousef Salech0%
Noah Nartey0%
Oscar Schwartau0%
Clement Bischoff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Frederik Alves Ibsen38%
Yousef Salech33%
Jordi Vanlerberghe25%
Clement Bischoff25%
Henrik Heggheim23%
Daniel Wass23%
Blás Riveros20%
Jacob Rasmussen17%
Mathias Kvistgaarden17%
Rasmus Lauritsen16%
Ohi Omoijuanfo13%
Mathias Greve12%
Kevin Tshiembe12%
Josip Radošević10%
Nicolai Vallys10%
Patrick Pentz7%
Marko Divković7%
Oscar Schwartau7%
Sean Klaiber4%
Yuito Suzuki4%
Kevin Mensah0%
Thomas Mikkelsen0%
Håkon Evjen0%
Sebastian Søraas Sebulonsen0%
Filip Bundgaard0%
Noah Nartey0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yuito Suzuki23%
Blás Riveros20%
Daniel Wass19%
Nicolai Vallys19%
Håkon Evjen18%
Marko Divković18%
Mathias Kvistgaarden17%
Filip Bundgaard13%
Noah Nartey11%
Mathias Greve8%
Jacob Rasmussen7%
Kevin Tshiembe6%
Kevin Mensah6%
Sean Klaiber4%
Josip Radošević3%
Ohi Omoijuanfo3%
Patrick Pentz0%
Jordi Vanlerberghe0%
Frederik Alves Ibsen0%
Thomas Mikkelsen0%
Rasmus Lauritsen0%
Sebastian Søraas Sebulonsen0%
Henrik Heggheim0%
Yousef Salech0%
Oscar Schwartau0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Kvistgaarden17%
Yuito Suzuki15%
Ohi Omoijuanfo13%
Nicolai Vallys10%
Filip Bundgaard7%
Daniel Wass6%
Frederik Alves Ibsen6%
Marko Divković4%
Jacob Rasmussen3%
Patrick Pentz0%
Jordi Vanlerberghe0%
Mathias Greve0%
Josip Radošević0%
Kevin Mensah0%
Thomas Mikkelsen0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Sean Klaiber0%
Håkon Evjen0%
Rasmus Lauritsen0%
Blás Riveros0%
Sebastian Søraas Sebulonsen0%
Henrik Heggheim0%
Yousef Salech0%
Noah Nartey0%
Oscar Schwartau0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
LYN (22)
€13m
VEJ (22)
€9m
HVI (21)
€5m
Aarhus's squad is €12m less valuable than Brondby's (€36m vs €48m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
VEJ (7)
€3m
LYN (5)
€3m
HVI (6)
€2m
Aarhus and Brondby have a similar attack value (both €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
RF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
Aarhus's midfield is €3m more valuable than Brondby's (€14m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
RF (10)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
VEJ (9)
€4m
HVI (9)
€2m
Aarhus's defence is €14m less valuable than Brondby's (€8m vs €22m).
Denmark: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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FC Midtjylland
FC Copenhagen
FC Nordsjaelland
Randers FC
Viborg
Vejle
Silkeborg
Lyngby
Odense
Hvidovre