Aarhus faces FC Midtjylland with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, and the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, a 12.9% chance. Home form shows Aarhus scoring 0.67 and conceding 0.33 against stronger opposition, while Midtjylland, playing away against weaker teams, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 29% home win, 27% draw, and 44% away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9%), and Under 5.5 (93.5% with a 5% edge). Aarhus is coming off a draw against Odense, while Midtjylland are on a two-game winning run after a 1-0 win over Randers FC.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, as FC Midtjylland secured a 0-2 away win, extending their unbeaten run to five matches. The pre-match favourite was the away side, given a 43% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the predicted result, with the favoured outcome landing. Every suggested pick also hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Under 6.5 at 97.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7% and Under 5.5 at 93.9%. The model’s selections were all accurate, confirming its strong predictive performance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aarhus win✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.16
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.60
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.75
Dafabet
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.65
FC Midtjylland win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied 44.4% · @ 2.11
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.13
SBO
2.11
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aarhus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.30
1.93
1.14
1.31
1.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.43
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.82
1.23
2.40
1.20
1.33
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.97
1.50
1.36
1.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.15
0.92
1.00
1.29
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
1.00
2.00
1.43
1.90
0.70
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
@ 1.18-1.9%
Under 1.5
22.7%
@ 4.52+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.78
Unibet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.61-6.2%
Under 2.5
48.0%
@ 2.25+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.30
SBO
2.29
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
@ 2.54-7.3%
Under 3.5
70.2%
@ 1.50+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.57
BetVictor
2.55
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
@ 1.52-4.6%
No
43.5%
@ 2.38+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.51
No
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.73+6.4%
1-2
9.1%@ 8.12+3.6%
0-1
8.6%@ 9.38+3.8%
0-0
7.5%@ 13.17+4.1%
0-2 ✓
7.5%@ 11.16+3.4%
2-1
7.3%@ 10.26+2.9%
1-0
6.6%@ 11.66+2.7%
2-2
5.6%@ 10.86+1.4%
Aarhus goals ↓
FC Midtjylland goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
8.6%
7.5%
3.8%
1.5%
1
6.6%
13%
9.1%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.7%
7.3%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
3
1.9%
3.0%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus goals (down), columns = FC Midtjylland goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
FC Midtjylland
2.33
Viborg
2.17
FC Nordsjaelland
2.17
Brondby
2.17
Randers FC
1.17
AC Horsens
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Odense
0.83
Lyngby
0.50
Aarhus
0.50
Sonderjyske
0.17
Aarhus is 1.83 points worse than FC Midtjylland in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
Brondby
1.83
Viborg
1.67
FC Midtjylland
1.67
FC Nordsjaelland
1.50
AC Horsens
1.33
Lyngby
1.17
Aarhus
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Sonderjyske
0.83
Randers FC
0.83
Odense
0.83
Aarhus is 0.50 goals worse than FC Midtjylland in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Viborg
0.67
FC Nordsjaelland
0.67
FC Midtjylland
0.83
Odense
1.17
Brondby
1.17
Randers FC
1.33
FC Copenhagen
1.33
Silkeborg
1.50
AC Horsens
1.67
Lyngby
1.83
Aarhus
1.83
Sonderjyske
2.17
Aarhus is 1.00 goals worse than FC Midtjylland in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
59%
Aarhus
58%
FC Midtjylland
55%
Brondby
55%
FC Copenhagen
52%
Lyngby
52%
Odense
51%
Silkeborg
47%
Viborg
47%
Randers FC
43%
AC Horsens
43%
Sonderjyske
39%
Aarhus is 2.7 percentage points better than FC Midtjylland in terms of average possession (58% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aarhus
For 5.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 13.8 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Midtjylland
For 6.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 15.5 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aarhus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.4
3.4
3.5
3.2
24.5
23.8
25.2
vs Stronger (10)
10.6
9.8
11.5
3.5
3.0
4.0
25.0
24.5
25.5
vs Similar (38)
9.5
9.9
9.2
3.4
3.7
3.1
24.1
23.6
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
-
6.0
2.5
-
2.5
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
45%
43%
48%
46%
54%
38%
70%
67%
74%
% under line
55%
57%
52%
54%
46%
62%
30%
33%
26%
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
9.8
11.2
3.8
4.0
3.7
28.5
31.4
25.8
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
8.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (24)
10.3
9.0
11.8
3.8
4.5
3.2
29.5
32.4
26.3
vs Weaker (25)
10.8
10.9
10.8
3.8
3.5
4.1
27.6
30.8
25.5
% over line
60%
45%
73%
60%
58%
62%
86%
100%
73%
% under line
40%
55%
27%
40%
42%
38%
14%
0%
27%
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Odense
11.0
AC Horsens
10.6
FC Midtjylland
10.3
Sonderjyske
10.2
Lyngby
10.1
Randers FC
9.9
Viborg
9.8
FC Copenhagen
9.8
Aarhus
9.6
Silkeborg
9.6
Brondby
9.6
FC Nordsjaelland
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Brondby
4.6
FC Midtjylland
4.3
Lyngby
3.9
Aarhus
3.9
AC Horsens
3.8
FC Copenhagen
3.8
Sonderjyske
3.7
Viborg
3.7
FC Nordsjaelland
3.7
Randers FC
3.4
Odense
3.3
Silkeborg
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Midtjylland
27.8
Viborg
24.9
Brondby
24.5
Lyngby
24.1
Aarhus
23.9
FC Copenhagen
23.7
Randers FC
22.1
Odense
21.8
Sonderjyske
21.8
FC Nordsjaelland
21.5
AC Horsens
19.9
Silkeborg
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.5%
@ 1.60+4.5%
Under 9.5
37.5%
@ 2.21-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Unibet
1.66
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.11
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.3%
@ 1.57-3.6%
Under 3.5
44.7%
@ 2.25+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.6%
Under 21.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aarhus or Draw✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.70
Edge
+1.5%
29%
28%
43%
covers Aarhus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.73
SBO
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Aarhus or FC Midtjylland✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.1%
29%
28%
43%
covers Aarhus + FC Midtjylland
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Draw or FC Midtjylland✓ Hit
70.9%
Avg Implied 70.4% · @ 1.33
Edge
+0.5%
29%
28%
43%
covers Draw + FC Midtjylland
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aarhus over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.5%
@ 1.27-2.5%
Under
29.5%
@ 3.45+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.65
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Aarhus over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.5%
@ 2.37-4.9%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.54+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Under
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Aarhus over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 5.38-4.7%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.12+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Aarhus over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 11.92-4.4%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.4%
@ 1.16-1.9%
Under
21.6%
@ 4.71+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.4%
@ 1.84-5.2%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.89+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 3.67-5.3%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.25+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
FC Midtjylland over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 8.16-4.4%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aarhus, so a minus line means Aarhus give that many goals of a start and FC Midtjylland receive them. At -1, Aarhus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aarhus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aarhus)Actual: FC Midtjylland
Aarhus -2
4.1%
@ 12.98-2.8%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 8.12-2.6%
FC Midtjylland +2
87.4%
@ 1.09+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Aarhus)Actual: FC Midtjylland
Aarhus -1
12.6%
@ 6.39-1.4%
Draw -1
16.5%
@ 4.91-1.8%
FC Midtjylland +1
70.9%
@ 1.33+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Handicap +1 (Aarhus)Actual: FC Midtjylland
Aarhus +1
56.7%
@ 1.70+4.1%
Draw +1
21.0%
@ 3.87-2.1%
FC Midtjylland -1
22.3%
@ 3.66-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.75
Away
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.58
Handicap +2 (Aarhus)Actual: Draw
Aarhus +2
77.7%
@ 1.22+4.1%
Draw +2
13.4%
@ 6.03-1.5%
FC Midtjylland -2
8.9%
@ 7.83-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aarhus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.64
0.43
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.25
0.25
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.29
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.23
0.43
0.14
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.41
1.00
0.43
0.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
73% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.8%
@ 1.28-0.7%
Under 0.5
28.2%
@ 3.39+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.37-2.0%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.54+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.45
SBO
2.44
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
Superbet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 5.35-3.5%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.12+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Unibet
5.40
1xBet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.8%
@ 2.06+2.7%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.70-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Aarhus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 6.35-2.5%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.85
Unibet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Aarhus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 18.67-3.1%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 1.77-4.0%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.97+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 4.72-8.0%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.15+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.7%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aarhus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
1.29
0.71
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.73
1.60
0.70
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
0.79
1.07
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.69
0.57
1.14
1.17
0.17
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.59
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.16-0.3%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 4.63+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Under
Unibet
4.80
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.5%
@ 1.82-3.7%
Under 1.5
52.5%
@ 1.91+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.2%
@ 3.55-7.1%
Under 2.5
80.8%
@ 1.26+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.0%
@ 1.74+2.8%
Under
44.0%
@ 1.98-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Aarhus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.2%
@ 4.59+0.0%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.16-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Aarhus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 12.25-3.3%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.8%
@ 1.52-9.4%
Under
48.2%
@ 2.39+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Superbet
2.32
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 3.45-9.3%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.26+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 8.85-6.6%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.04+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.15
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.4%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.6%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.4%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.7%
1.22
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.3%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
1.22
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.21
-
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.0%
1.34
Unibet
1.40
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.5%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
1.28
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.9%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.9%
1.33
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.5%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.2%
1.50
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
+7.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aarhus
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristian Arnstad38%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson33%
Frederik Tingager25%
J. Bogere22%
J. Jønsson20%
J. Serra14%
R. Carstensen12%
Tobias Bech11%
Frederik Emmery11%
S. Jørgensen0%
Mikael Anderson0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
M. Knudsen0%
Gift Links0%
M. Solbakken0%
C. Rösler0%
Eric Kahl0%
J. Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Christian Storch0%
Mouhammade Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Knudsen33%
Christian Storch33%
Mouhammade Camara29%
C. Rösler25%
Stefen Tchamche25%
Eric Kahl22%
Frederik Emmery22%
Gift Links20%
Mikael Anderson14%
J. Andersen14%
R. Carstensen12%
Kristian Arnstad12%
J. Bogere11%
Frederik Tingager0%
S. Jørgensen0%
Tobias Bech0%
J. Serra0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
J. Jønsson0%
M. Solbakken0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
S. Jørgensen33%
M. Solbakken33%
M. Knudsen22%
Kristian Arnstad12%
Tobias Bech11%
Eric Kahl11%
Frederik Emmery11%
Frederik Tingager0%
R. Carstensen0%
J. Serra0%
Mikael Anderson0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
Gift Links0%
J. Jønsson0%
C. Rösler0%
J. Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Christian Storch0%
J. Bogere0%
Mouhammade Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Jørgensen33%
J. Bogere33%
Frederik Emmery22%
J. Serra14%
Tobias Bech11%
Frederik Tingager0%
R. Carstensen0%
Mikael Anderson0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
M. Knudsen0%
Gift Links0%
J. Jønsson0%
M. Solbakken0%
Kristian Arnstad0%
C. Rösler0%
Eric Kahl0%
J. Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Christian Storch0%
Mouhammade Camara0%
FC Midtjylland
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Stanley Iheanacho44%
Franculino Djú38%
Valdemar Byskov25%
Sofus Johannesen25%
Julius Emefile25%
Gue-sung Cho22%
Darío Osorio22%
Friday Etim22%
M. Jensen17%
Mads Bech Sørensen11%
Denil Castillo10%
R. Kristensen0%
Philip Billing0%
M. Erlić0%
E. Ólafsson0%
Adam Gabriel0%
Pedro Bravo0%
K. Wätjen0%
Beni Junior0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Jensen33%
R. Kristensen30%
Sofus Johannesen25%
Darío Osorio22%
Philip Billing20%
Adam Gabriel17%
K. Wätjen17%
M. Erlić14%
Franculino Djú12%
Mads Bech Sørensen11%
Friday Etim11%
Denil Castillo10%
Gue-sung Cho0%
E. Ólafsson0%
Pedro Bravo0%
Valdemar Byskov0%
Beni Junior0%
Stanley Iheanacho0%
Julius Emefile0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darío Osorio33%
Franculino Djú25%
Valdemar Byskov25%
Friday Etim22%
Philip Billing20%
Beni Junior17%
Sofus Johannesen12%
R. Kristensen10%
Denil Castillo10%
Mads Bech Sørensen0%
M. Erlić0%
Gue-sung Cho0%
M. Jensen0%
E. Ólafsson0%
Adam Gabriel0%
Pedro Bravo0%
K. Wätjen0%
Stanley Iheanacho0%
Julius Emefile0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stanley Iheanacho33%
Valdemar Byskov25%
Darío Osorio22%
K. Wätjen17%
Mads Bech Sørensen11%
Friday Etim11%
R. Kristensen0%
Philip Billing0%
M. Erlić0%
Gue-sung Cho0%
M. Jensen0%
E. Ólafsson0%
Adam Gabriel0%
Pedro Bravo0%
Denil Castillo0%
Franculino Djú0%
Beni Junior0%
Sofus Johannesen0%
Julius Emefile0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
SON (26)
€13m
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
Aarhus's squad is €72m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€36m vs €108m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
AH (9)
€4m
SON (6)
€3m
LYN (5)
€3m
Aarhus's attack is €33m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€14m vs €47m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
SON (7)
€3m
RF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
AH (6)
€2m
Aarhus's midfield is €10m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€14m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
SON (13)
€6m
RF (10)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
Aarhus's defence is €29m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€8m vs €37m).
Denmark: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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FC Copenhagen
Viborg
FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby
AC Horsens
Randers FC
Odense
Silkeborg
Lyngby
Sonderjyske