Aberdeen vs Motherwell Result & Analysis

Aberdeen are the clear favourites, with a 48% chance of victory against Motherwell’s 26% win probability and a 26% draw probability. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, and the model’s most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, a 12.3% chance. Aberdeen, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, have been scoring 1.43 goals and conceding 1.29. Motherwell, on the road, average 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded versus similar teams. The model’s selections include an 84.4% chance that over 19.5 fouls will occur, an 83.1% probability of over 2.5 cards, a 79.9% likelihood of over 1.5 total goals, a 73.0% chance of over 8.5 corners, and a 72.0% probability of over 21.5 fouls. Aberdeen entered the game after a defeat to Rangers, while Motherwell came off a draw with a 3-3 result against St Mirren.

The 1-1 draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite was Aberdeen, whose 48% chance of victory was dismissed when the match finished level. The model’s prediction was wrong, and the final result was a stalemate. The game’s key moments were reflected in the model’s selections: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.0% and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.0%. Aberdeen’s recent form, after a loss to Rangers, and Motherwell’s draw against St Mirren, both hinted at a tight contest, which the scoreline confirmed.