The contest between Accrington and Crawley Town is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds close enough to keep both sides in the mix. Accrington’s home form shows they average 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition, while Crawley Town’s away record is 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.9% probability. The model picks a home victory, with probabilities of 40% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 31% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.5% edge 3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% edge 5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5% edge 3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9% edge 3%), Under 5.5 (95.5% edge 3%), and Home under 3.5 goals (94.9% edge 4%). Both teams have shown recent struggles, with Accrington coming off two straight defeats and Crawley Town a recent loss, adding to the uncertainty.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Accrington win
40.1%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 2.00
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.06
Dafabet
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.48
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
10Bet
3.55
Crawley Town win
31.0%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.59
Dafabet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.52
1xBet
3.52
Bet365
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Accrington
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.20
1.47
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
2.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.15
1.42
1.50
1.25
0.86
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.23
0.71
1.29
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
1.30
0.71
1.29
0.69
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
@ 1.22-2.3%
Under 1.5
25.9%
@ 3.92+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.11
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.74-6.2%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 2.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.9%
@ 2.81-7.1%
Under 3.5
74.1%
@ 1.38+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
@ 1.63-3.4%
No
46.5%
@ 2.14+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Unibet
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
No
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.16
Betfair
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 6.47+6.9%
1-0
9.3%@ 7.81+3.6%
0-0
8.8%@ 10.91+4.8%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.94+3.1%
0-1
7.8%@ 10.69+3.6%
1-2
7.5%@ 10.91+3.4%
2-0
7.3%@ 9.74+2.7%
0-2
5.4%@ 17.38+2.8%
Accrington goals ↓
Crawley Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.8%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.3%
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.7%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.4%
4.0%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Accrington goals (down), columns = Crawley Town goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Accrington is 0.28 points better than Crawley Town in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Accrington is 0.07 goals better than Crawley Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Accrington is 0.22 goals better than Crawley Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Accrington is 8.6 percentage points worse than Crawley Town in terms of average possession (48% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Accrington
For 3.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crawley Town
For 3.2 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
9.9
4.0
3.0
5.0
21.6
20.9
22.2
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
10.3
11.5
4.5
2.2
6.8
22.6
24.0
21.5
vs Similar (42)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.9
3.1
4.6
21.4
20.5
22.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
50%
56%
54%
32%
76%
47%
42%
52%
% under line
47%
50%
44%
46%
68%
24%
53%
58%
48%
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
12.0
11.7
4.4
4.3
4.5
24.9
25.3
24.6
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
5.0
-
5.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (47)
12.0
12.0
11.9
4.3
4.3
4.2
25.0
25.3
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
-
8.5
7.5
-
7.5
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
73%
75%
72%
62%
62%
62%
73%
83%
64%
% under line
27%
25%
28%
38%
38%
38%
27%
17%
36%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.5%
@ 1.53-0.8%
Under 9.5
40.5%
@ 2.32+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.56
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
Under
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.34
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.24
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.0%
Under 3.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.7%
Under 21.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Accrington or Draw
69.0%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.28
Edge
-3.8%
40%
29%
31%
covers Accrington + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Accrington or Crawley Town
71.1%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.25
Edge
-3.1%
40%
29%
31%
covers Accrington + Crawley Town
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw or Crawley Town
59.9%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.75
Edge
+6.9%
40%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Crawley Town
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Accrington over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
@ 1.18-4.0%
Under
25.0%
@ 4.43+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.75
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.35
Accrington over/under 1.5
Over
40.3%
@ 1.89-8.8%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.82+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.95
Unibet
1.94
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Accrington over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
@ 3.80-8.1%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.22+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.95
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.77
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Accrington over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
@ 8.77-5.5%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.05+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Crawley Town over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
@ 1.34+0.7%
Under
30.4%
@ 2.98-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.13
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Crawley Town over/under 1.5
Over
33.5%
@ 2.72-0.7%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.41+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Crawley Town over/under 2.5
Over
11.9%
@ 6.76-1.8%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.08+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.95
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Crawley Town over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
@ 15.88-2.7%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Accrington, so a minus line means Accrington give that many goals of a start and Crawley Town receive them. At -1, Accrington must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Accrington win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Accrington)
Accrington -2
7.2%
@ 7.66-4.5%
Draw -2
12.2%
@ 5.58-3.8%
Crawley Town +2
80.6%
@ 1.24+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Marathonbet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Accrington)
Accrington -1
19.4%
@ 3.56-5.8%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.76-3.1%
Crawley Town +1
59.9%
@ 1.75+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.55
Away
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Handicap +1 (Accrington)
Accrington +1
69.0%
@ 1.28-1.0%
Draw +1
17.6%
@ 5.08-0.0%
Crawley Town -1
13.4%
@ 7.29+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Handicap +2 (Accrington)
Accrington +2
86.6%
@ 1.07+0.2%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 10.50+0.2%
Crawley Town -2
4.3%
@ 19.50-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.73
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.77
0.83
0.58
0.36
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.50
0.14
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.15
0.56
0.14
0.50
0.15
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.33-0.6%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 3.07+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.9%
@ 2.55-4.5%
Under 1.5
68.1%
@ 1.46+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
Under
William Hil
1.50
BetVictor
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 6.30-4.4%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.09+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.95
Under
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.1%
@ 1.79-4.7%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.92+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.79
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Accrington over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
@ 5.06-5.4%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.14+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Accrington over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
@ 12.88-4.9%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.0%
@ 2.25-1.1%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.57+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.5%
@ 7.92-3.2%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.05+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 12.50-6.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.65
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.57
0.79
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.74
0.57
0.79
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.19-1.7%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 4.25+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.6%
@ 1.94-7.3%
Under 1.5
59.4%
@ 1.78+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.0%
@ 3.92-6.6%
Under 2.5
83.0%
@ 1.21+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.2%
@ 1.55-4.5%
Under
44.8%
@ 2.30+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Under
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.11
Accrington over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.7%
@ 3.55-7.4%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.25+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Accrington over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
@ 9.00-5.2%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.6%
@ 1.85-3.5%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.86+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.2%
@ 5.35-4.1%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.12+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.60
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 12.88-5.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
Under 5.5
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+4.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+5.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+3.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+1.8%
Under 4.5
88.1%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+5.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.14
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+5.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+4.1%
Home +2 handicap
86.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+0.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+8.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+6.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.25
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-
+7.4%
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+8.3%
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-1.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.0%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
-4.0%
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.1%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+7.1%
Over 1.5
74.1%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-2.3%
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
1.30
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
-
+0.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-3.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Accrington
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Woods50%
Stefan Mols33%
F. Rawson25%
D. Tutonda0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Anderson50%
J. Woods50%
Seamus Conneely33%
S. Whalley33%
Liam Coyle33%
Tom Moore33%
F. Rawson25%
Donald Love25%
D. Tutonda0%
C. Stockton0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Donald Love25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
J. Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Woods50%
Donald Love25%
Charlie Caton25%
Alex Henderson25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Crawley Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Orsi25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
Gianmarco Di Biase25%
L. Watson20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jude Arthurs60%
L. Watson40%
Klaudio Krasniqi40%
Charlie Barker40%
J. Russell40%
Priestley Farquharson25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Osman Kamara0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
L. Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Watson20%
Jude Arthurs20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Accrington and Crawley Town have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Accrington and Crawley Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Accrington and Crawley Town have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Accrington and Crawley Town have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Port Vale