Accrington vs Crewe Result & Analysis

Accrington are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance to a home win, 23% for a draw and 15% for a Crewe victory. The team’s home form shows they average 1.71 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded against similar opposition, while Crewe, on the road, manage just 0.71 goals and allow two each game. This disparity explains the high home win probability and the model’s pick. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high scoring game, yet the most likely total is two, with a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0, carrying an 11.3% probability. Suggested selections include Under 5.5 cards at 90.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.2%, Under 4.5 cards at 79.9% (miss), Over 1.5 at 78.8% and Over 8.5 corners at 78.1% (miss). The recent form notes that Accrington are coming off a draw, while Crewe also finished a draw, but the venue advantage and defensive solidity keep Accrington ahead.

Accrington’s victory over Crewe was a 4-1 win, a result that comfortably surpassed the model’s predicted total of 2.9 goals. The pre-match favourite was Accrington, with a 62% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The match saw the model’s selections perform as follows: Under 5.5 cards hit at 90.6%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 80.2%, Under 4.5 cards missed at 79.9%, Over 1.5 hit at 78.8%, and Over 8.5 corners missed at 78.1%. Accrington, coming off a draw, extended their recent form, while Crewe, also after a draw, failed to secure a win.