Accrington face Grimsby with the model favouring an away win, a 44% chance, while a draw sits at 29% and a home win at 27%. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.8%. Accrington’s home form shows they average 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Grimsby, playing away, averages 1.31 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.6% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.9% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (95.8% with a 3% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.2% with a 4% edge). Accrington’s recent form shows a dip after two straight defeats, while Grimsby comes off a draw, adding intrigue to the encounter.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Grimsby, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. Accrington and Grimsby both entered the game on a draw, each having just finished a 2-2 tie in their previous fixture. The model had assigned a 44% probability to an away win, but the result was a draw. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.6% probability) hit, Under 6.5 (98.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%) hit, Under 5.5 (95.8%) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.9%) hit. All eight predictions were settled and all were correct.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Accrington win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.50
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Draw✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.50
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.74
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.54
Grimsby win✗ Miss
43.8%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 2.00
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
SBO
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Accrington
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.47
1.14
1.43
0.81
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
2.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.42
1.45
1.18
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
1.88
1.24
1.31
0.77
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.64
1.00
1.93
1.20
1.31
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
@ 1.27-0.9%
Under 1.5
27.5%
@ 3.49+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.6%
@ 1.89-4.2%
Under 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.87+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.89
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.2%
@ 3.22-4.7%
Under 3.5
75.8%
@ 1.31+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
@ 1.73-2.4%
No
48.8%
@ 2.00+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 6.28+6.8%
0-1
10.5%@ 7.07+4.2%
0-0
9.5%@ 9.93+5.0%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.85+3.3%
0-2
8.3%@ 9.15+3.5%
1-0
7.6%@ 9.77+3.0%
2-1
6.7%@ 11.08+2.8%
2-2 ✓
4.8%@ 13.07+1.4%
Accrington goals ↓
Grimsby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
10%
8.3%
4.0%
1.4%
1
7.6%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.5%
2
4.7%
6.7%
4.8%
2.3%
0.8%
3
1.7%
2.4%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Accrington goals (down), columns = Grimsby goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Accrington is 0.54 points worse than Grimsby in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Accrington is 0.58 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Accrington is 0.16 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Accrington is 7.3 percentage points worse than Grimsby in terms of average possession (48% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Accrington
For 3.8 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
For 6.1 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
9.9
4.0
3.0
5.0
21.9
21.5
22.2
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
10.3
11.5
4.5
2.2
6.8
22.6
24.0
21.5
vs Similar (42)
9.5
9.5
9.6
3.9
3.1
4.6
21.7
21.1
22.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
46%
56%
54%
32%
76%
49%
46%
52%
% under line
49%
54%
44%
46%
68%
24%
51%
54%
48%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.2
3.5
3.4
3.7
23.6
22.5
25.0
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
9.3
7.0
2.2
2.0
3.0
21.8
20.0
27.0
vs Similar (44)
10.6
10.9
10.4
3.8
3.8
3.7
23.8
22.8
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
58%
45%
52%
54%
50%
67%
58%
77%
% under line
48%
42%
55%
48%
46%
50%
33%
42%
23%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.7%
@ 1.74+3.4%
Under 9.5
43.3%
@ 1.98-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
67.4%
Under 21.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Accrington or Draw✓ Hit
56.2%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.76
Edge
+3.3%
27%
29%
44%
covers Accrington + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.80
SBO
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Accrington or Grimsby✗ Miss
71.0%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-2.6%
27%
29%
44%
covers Accrington + Grimsby
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Grimsby✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.7%
27%
29%
44%
covers Draw + Grimsby
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Accrington over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.8%
@ 1.41-0.3%
Under
34.2%
@ 2.74+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Accrington over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.1%
@ 2.98-2.1%
Under
70.9%
@ 1.35+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Accrington over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 7.70-2.7%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.60
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Accrington over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 18.25-2.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Grimsby over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.9%
@ 1.20-1.8%
Under
24.1%
@ 4.18+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.39
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Grimsby over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.7%
@ 2.00-4.8%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.74+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
BetVictor
1.75
Betano
1.75
Grimsby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 4.17-5.0%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.19+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.22
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Grimsby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.43-4.4%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.05+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.40
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Accrington, so a minus line means Accrington give that many goals of a start and Grimsby receive them. At -1, Accrington must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Accrington win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Accrington)Actual: Grimsby
Accrington -2
3.2%
@ 19.67-1.5%
Draw -2
7.7%
@ 10.67-1.0%
Grimsby +2
89.1%
@ 1.06+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.00
Away
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (Accrington)Actual: Grimsby
Accrington -1
10.9%
@ 7.65-0.8%
Draw -1
16.3%
@ 5.05-1.5%
Grimsby +1
72.8%
@ 1.27+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Handicap +1 (Accrington)Actual: Accrington
Accrington +1
56.2%
@ 1.76+5.6%
Draw +1
22.0%
@ 3.63-2.6%
Grimsby -1
21.8%
@ 3.59-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.55
Away
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Handicap +2 (Accrington)Actual: Accrington
Accrington +2
78.2%
@ 1.24+5.7%
Draw +2
13.5%
@ 5.57-2.6%
Grimsby -2
8.3%
@ 7.80-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Superbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Away
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.64
0.64
0.31
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.73
0.82
0.45
0.33
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.59
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.54
0.93
0.67
0.69
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.6%
@ 1.36+1.5%
Under 0.5
30.4%
@ 2.92-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.07
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.69+0.3%
Under 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.42-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Under
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.5%
@ 6.65-2.5%
Under 2.5
88.5%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.9%
@ 2.35+0.5%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.53-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.35
Unibet
2.32
1xBet
2.31
Under
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 8.18-1.6%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.80
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 30.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.6%
@ 1.85-0.4%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.85+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.86
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.7%
@ 5.25-3.9%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 14.00-3.3%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.69
0.64
0.73
0.47
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.65
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.46
1.00
0.53
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.23+1.6%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 3.80-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.78
Marathonbet
3.78
Bet365
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.2%
@ 2.09-2.2%
Under 1.5
57.8%
@ 1.67+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.9%
@ 4.52-2.6%
Under 2.5
82.1%
@ 1.17+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.8%
@ 1.99-0.9%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.74+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 5.99-1.0%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.09+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.85
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 17.83-2.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Grimsby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.0%
@ 1.60-3.1%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.21+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Grimsby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 3.87-4.3%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.22+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Grimsby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 9.83-4.4%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.1%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.1%
1.06
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.8%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.2%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
72.8%
1.27
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
72.8%
1.27
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.0%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-2.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
70.9%
1.35
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+2.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Accrington
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Woods50%
Stefan Mols33%
F. Rawson25%
D. Tutonda0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Anderson50%
J. Woods50%
Seamus Conneely33%
S. Whalley33%
Liam Coyle33%
Tom Moore33%
F. Rawson25%
Donald Love25%
D. Tutonda0%
C. Stockton0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Donald Love25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
J. Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Woods50%
Donald Love25%
Charlie Caton25%
Alex Henderson25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Grimsby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andy Cook50%
Cian Doyle33%
H. Rodgers25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Sweeney25%
H. Rodgers25%
C. McJannet25%
M. Kacurri25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Andy Cook0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Green50%
G. Turi50%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Andy Cook0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Cook50%
Iwan Morgan25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Cian Doyle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Accrington's squad is €1m less valuable than Grimsby's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Accrington and Grimsby have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Accrington and Grimsby have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Accrington's defence is €1m less valuable than Grimsby's (€1m vs €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Port Vale