The contest between AD Ceuta FC and Albacete sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win. The probability split is 30 % for a home victory, 30 % for a draw and 40 % for Albacete to lift the trophy. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly active game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3 % chance. AD Ceuta’s home form shows an even balance of 1.5 goals scored and conceded against teams of similar strength, while Albacete’s away numbers are 0.92 scored and 0.75 conceded, also against comparable opposition. The model’s suggested picks include a 91.6 % chance that the match will see over 2.5 cards, a 91.0 % probability of over 19.5 fouls, an 82.0 % chance of over 21.5 fouls, an 80.7 % likelihood of over 3.5 cards, a 78.0 % edge for under 3.5, and a 70.3 % chance of over 1.5. Both sides have recently struggled, with AD Ceuta dropping two straight games and Albacete losing three in a row, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Albacete, fell short as AD Ceuta FC secured a 1-0 home win, extending their recent run of two straight defeats into a victory. The model had picked an away win with a 40 % probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards (91.6 %) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (91.0 %) hit, Over 21.5 fouls (82.0 %) hit, Over 3.5 cards (80.7 %) missed, Under 3.5 (78.0 %) hit, and Over 1.5 (70.3 %) missed. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.3 %, but the match settled on 1-0, with a 30 % chance of a home win, 30 % draw, and 40 % away win according to the model.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AD Ceuta FC win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.29
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.20
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Albacete win✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.88
Edge
+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AD Ceuta FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.67
1.40
1.40
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.34
1.72
1.50
1.50
1.20
1.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.20
1.59
1.59
1.15
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
2.20
1.40
1.75
1.75
4.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.16
1.54
1.54
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
@ 1.77-9.5%
Under 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.95+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
10.4%
1-0 ✓
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.5%
AD Ceuta FC goals ↓
Albacete goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
7.7%
3.3%
1.1%
1
8.7%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.5%
7.1%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.0%
2.6%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AD Ceuta FC goals (down), columns = Albacete goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Racing Santander
1.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.83
Malaga
1.76
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Granada CF
1.14
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Mirandes
0.95
Huesca
0.90
Cultural Leonesa
0.88
Zaragoza
0.86
AD Ceuta FC is 0.05 points better than Albacete in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing Santander
2.14
Almeria
1.87
Malaga
1.72
Castellón
1.66
Deportivo La Coruna
1.55
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Real Sociedad II
1.24
Eibar
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Mirandes
1.12
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Huesca
0.98
Cadiz
0.98
Cultural Leonesa
0.93
Zaragoza
0.83
AD Ceuta FC is 0.12 goals worse than Albacete in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.05
Malaga
1.17
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
Sporting Gijon
1.29
FC Andorra
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Valladolid
1.36
Zaragoza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Racing Santander
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Huesca
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.62
Mirandes
1.64
AD Ceuta FC is 0.19 goals worse than Albacete in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Racing Santander
52%
Almeria
52%
Malaga
52%
Leganes
51%
Deportivo La Coruna
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Cultural Leonesa
50%
Eibar
49%
Zaragoza
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Huesca
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Mirandes
43%
Albacete
42%
AD Ceuta FC is 8.4 percentage points better than Albacete in terms of average possession (51% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AD Ceuta FC
For 2.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 15.7 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Albacete
For 4.9 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AD Ceuta FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (45)
8.9
9.2
8.6
4.9
5.2
4.6
27.6
28.9
26.4
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
10.0
6.0
2.7
3.0
2.0
28.0
30.0
26.0
vs Similar (42)
8.9
9.1
8.8
5.0
5.4
4.7
27.6
28.8
26.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
50%
33%
78%
81%
75%
93%
95%
90%
% under line
59%
50%
67%
22%
19%
25%
7%
5%
10%
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.6
11.4
4.5
3.9
5.2
21.6
20.4
22.9
vs Stronger (8)
13.2
12.0
15.3
4.5
3.2
6.7
21.5
23.2
18.7
vs Similar (41)
10.4
10.1
10.8
4.5
4.0
5.0
21.5
19.4
23.6
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
65%
62%
68%
72%
62%
83%
49%
38%
61%
% under line
35%
38%
32%
28%
38%
17%
51%
62%
39%
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
11.0
Cordoba
10.9
Racing Santander
10.5
Zaragoza
10.1
Castellón
9.9
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Huesca
9.7
Almeria
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Granada CF
9.3
Eibar
9.3
FC Andorra
9.3
Mirandes
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.2
Malaga
9.2
Valladolid
9.0
Real Sociedad II
9.0
Cultural Leonesa
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.9
Burgos
8.6
Las Palmas
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.5
Zaragoza
6.2
Castellón
6.1
Real Sociedad II
6.0
Burgos
5.9
Cordoba
5.8
Mirandes
5.6
Granada CF
5.6
Almeria
5.5
Malaga
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Cultural Leonesa
5.4
Eibar
5.3
AD Ceuta FC
5.3
Sporting Gijon
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Huesca
5.1
Leganes
5.1
Cadiz
5.0
Las Palmas
4.7
Albacete
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.5
Valladolid
28.4
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
Mirandes
27.6
Granada CF
27.4
FC Andorra
27.4
Castellón
27.2
Las Palmas
27.2
Racing Santander
27.1
Zaragoza
27.1
Burgos
26.8
Almeria
26.7
Leganes
26.2
Cultural Leonesa
26.0
Eibar
25.9
Cadiz
25.7
Malaga
25.2
Huesca
25.0
Deportivo La Coruna
23.7
Sporting Gijon
22.4
Albacete
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.6%
Under 9.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.7%
Under 3.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.0%
Under 21.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AD Ceuta FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.83
0.79
0.71
0.73
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.76
0.59
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.48
0.85
0.62
0.25
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albacete over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albacete over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albacete over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AD Ceuta FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.90
0.71
0.79
0.47
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.82
1.00
0.77
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.00
1.25
1.25
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.68
0.69
0.92
0.67
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albacete over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albacete over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albacete over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RS (37)
€82m
ALM (35)
€69m
DLC (33)
€58m
LP (36)
€53m
MAL (32)
€35m
VAL (35)
€35m
SG (29)
€33m
GC (31)
€31m
FA (30)
€26m
CAS (40)
€24m
MIR (32)
€23m
BUR (33)
€21m
CAD (32)
€21m
LEG (28)
€20m
COR (29)
€18m
ZAR (36)
€18m
CL (33)
€17m
EIB (31)
€16m
HUE (33)
€16m
ALB (28)
€15m
ACF (30)
€14m
AD Ceuta FC and Albacete have a similar squad value (both €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DLC (10)
€43m
RS (14)
€42m
ALM (13)
€37m
MAL (11)
€24m
VAL (15)
€20m
SG (12)
€20m
LP (17)
€19m
CAS (20)
€16m
GC (12)
€15m
FA (13)
€12m
LEG (12)
€10m
CAD (14)
€10m
MIR (13)
€9m
ACF (15)
€9m
BUR (11)
€8m
HUE (12)
€8m
CL (12)
€8m
EIB (12)
€7m
ZAR (13)
€6m
COR (9)
€6m
ALB (7)
€4m
AD Ceuta FC's attack is €5m more valuable than Albacete's (€9m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALM (6)
€22m
RS (6)
€17m
LP (3)
€9m
ZAR (8)
€7m
MIR (6)
€7m
BUR (9)
€7m
VAL (6)
€6m
GC (7)
€6m
ALB (9)
€5m
COR (6)
€5m
MAL (8)
€4m
DLC (6)
€4m
SG (5)
€4m
CAD (6)
€4m
FA (5)
€4m
HUE (8)
€4m
LEG (4)
€4m
EIB (6)
€3m
ACF (5)
€2m
CAS (4)
€2m
CL (6)
€2m
AD Ceuta FC's midfield is €3m less valuable than Albacete's (€2m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (16)
€25m
RS (17)
€24m
DLC (17)
€11m
GC (12)
€11m
SG (12)
€10m
FA (12)
€10m
ALM (16)
€9m
VAL (14)
€9m
CL (15)
€7m
MIR (13)
€7m
MAL (13)
€7m
BUR (13)
€7m
COR (14)
€7m
CAD (12)
€6m
CAS (16)
€6m
LEG (12)
€6m
EIB (13)
€6m
ALB (12)
€6m
HUE (13)
€5m
ZAR (15)
€4m
ACF (10)
€3m
AD Ceuta FC's defence is €2m less valuable than Albacete's (€3m vs €6m).
Spain: Segunda División 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Burgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
FC Andorra
Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
Leganes
Valladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
Zaragoza