ADO Den Haag enter the match after a 2-2 draw with Feyenoord, a result that leaves the team still searching for a clear rhythm. Fortuna Sittard, fresh from a 3-2 victory over Groningen, look to translate that momentum into a win. The model sees a home win as the most likely outcome, assigning 44% to ADO, 24% to a draw and 32% to Fortuna. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively contest, with the most probable scoreline 1-1 at 10.4%. ADO averages 1.88 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Fortuna averages 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded away. The model’s selections emphasize low-scoring halves: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8% with an 8% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1% with a 12% edge, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.1% with a 15% edge, and Home under 3.5 goals at 93.1% with an 8% edge. Other picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals, Home under 2.5 2H goals, Under 7.5, Away under 2.5 HT goals, Under 6.5, Away under 2.5 2H goals, and Under 7.5, each with their respective probabilities and edges.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ADO Den Haag win
44.9%
Avg Implied 45.4% · @ 2.06
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.86
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.99
Pinnacle
3.96
10Bet
3.95
Dafabet
3.95
Fortuna Sittard win
31.1%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.09
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.12
10Bet
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ADO Den Haag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.33
2.21
1.29
1.75
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.62
1.88
2.00
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (12)
2.83
0.83
2.67
0.33
3.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.93
1.67
1.93
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
2.58
1.33
2.33
1.33
2.83
vs Similar (18)
1.67
1.50
1.89
1.67
1.44
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (ADO Den Haag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.9%
@ 1.11+3.0%
Under 1.5
13.1%
@ 5.81-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Under
Pinnacle
6.11
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.2%
@ 1.42+1.2%
Under 2.5
32.8%
@ 2.75-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.81
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.5%
@ 2.07-0.1%
Under 3.5
54.5%
@ 1.74+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.12
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Both teams to score
Yes
68.2%
@ 1.39+1.3%
No
31.8%
@ 2.79-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
No
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.81
William Hil
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 7.82+4.4%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.55+3.5%
1-2
7.3%@ 10.51+2.9%
2-2
6.9%@ 10.06+2.4%
2-0
5.7%@ 13.07+2.2%
3-1
5.6%@ 12.87+2.0%
1-0
5.0%@ 12.00+1.2%
3-2
4.4%@ 15.34+1.4%
ADO Den Haag goals ↓
Fortuna Sittard goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.0%
3.8%
2.0%
0.8%
1
5.0%
10%
7.3%
3.8%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.8%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.6%
5.6%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ADO Den Haag goals (down), columns = Fortuna Sittard goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
ADO Den Haag is 0.07 points worse than Fortuna Sittard in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
ADO Den Haag is 0.19 goals worse than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
ADO Den Haag is 0.16 goals worse than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals conceded per game (2.01 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ADO Den Haag
For 5.7 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 10.0 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Sittard
For 3.2 · Against 7.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ADO Den Haag
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.5
10.6
3.2
3.5
3.0
26.5
26.2
26.7
vs Stronger (2)
15.0
-
15.0
2.0
-
2.0
18.5
-
18.5
vs Similar (28)
9.4
9.9
8.9
3.7
3.7
3.7
26.2
25.9
26.4
vs Weaker (20)
11.8
11.4
12.1
2.7
3.1
2.4
27.7
26.6
28.6
% over line
60%
57%
63%
44%
52%
37%
84%
87%
81%
% under line
40%
43%
37%
56%
48%
63%
16%
13%
19%
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.5
3.3
3.5
3.1
23.4
24.2
22.5
vs Stronger (20)
11.1
12.0
10.2
3.2
4.1
2.3
22.3
23.9
20.7
vs Similar (30)
10.6
10.6
10.7
3.3
3.1
3.6
24.1
24.4
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
40%
38%
42%
66%
73%
58%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
60%
62%
58%
34%
27%
42%
This opponent (ADO Den Haag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.4%
@ 1.66+3.2%
Under 9.5
40.6%
@ 2.12-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.7%
@ 2.20+1.3%
Under 3.5
56.3%
@ 1.62-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.2%
Under 21.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ADO Den Haag or Draw
51.8%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.34
Edge
-18.0%
45%
24%
31%
covers ADO Den Haag + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
ADO Den Haag or Fortuna Sittard
76.7%
Avg Implied 76.3% · @ 1.23
Edge
+0.4%
45%
24%
31%
covers ADO Den Haag + Fortuna Sittard
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Draw or Fortuna Sittard
71.5%
Avg Implied 53.9% · @ 1.74
Edge
+17.6%
45%
24%
31%
covers Draw + Fortuna Sittard
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ADO Den Haag over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
@ 1.11-5.1%
Under
21.7%
@ 5.60+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
ADO Den Haag over/under 1.5
Over
45.2%
@ 1.64-11.6%
Under
54.8%
@ 2.16+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
ADO Den Haag over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
@ 2.98-11.3%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.35+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.18
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
Under
Betano
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
ADO Den Haag over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
@ 6.03-8.4%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.09+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
@ 1.21+10.0%
Under
13.3%
@ 3.97-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.35
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5
Over
59.9%
@ 2.05+14.2%
Under
40.1%
@ 1.72-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5
Over
32.8%
@ 4.30+11.2%
Under
67.2%
@ 1.19-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Fortuna Sittard over/under 3.5
Over
14.6%
@ 9.46+4.8%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.03-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ADO Den Haag, so a minus line means ADO Den Haag give that many goals of a start and Fortuna Sittard receive them. At -1, ADO Den Haag must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ADO Den Haag win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag -2
5.1%
@ 6.66-8.3%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 5.84-6.8%
Fortuna Sittard +2
86.4%
@ 1.26+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Handicap -1 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag -1
13.6%
@ 3.38-12.8%
Draw -1
14.9%
@ 4.10-6.9%
Fortuna Sittard +1
71.5%
@ 1.73+19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.95
Away
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Handicap +1 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag +1
51.8%
@ 1.34-15.3%
Draw +1
19.9%
@ 5.01+2.0%
Fortuna Sittard -1
28.3%
@ 5.98+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.40
Handicap +2 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag +2
71.7%
@ 1.10-11.0%
Draw +2
14.8%
@ 8.62+4.2%
Fortuna Sittard -2
13.6%
@ 13.38+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ADO Den Haag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.71
0.93
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.94
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.17
0.67
0.17
1.33
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.87
0.53
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.17
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.67
0.89
0.44
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (ADO Den Haag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.9%
@ 1.22-2.5%
Under 0.5
26.1%
@ 3.94+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.85
1xBet
3.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.05-10.6%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.71+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
SBO
2.11
Pinnacle
2.08
Unibet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 4.34-7.4%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.18+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.45
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.33
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ADO Den Haag over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.1%
@ 1.63-17.8%
Under
60.9%
@ 2.16+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.12
ADO Den Haag over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
@ 4.04-14.9%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.20+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
Betano
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
ADO Den Haag over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 9.25-8.7%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.04+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.7%
@ 1.88+4.2%
Under
46.3%
@ 1.84-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Unibet
1.82
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.3%
@ 5.41+2.2%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.11-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
@ 11.25-3.6%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ADO Den Haag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.50
0.36
0.94
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
1.12
0.50
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.67
2.00
0.17
1.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.80
1.40
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.42
0.50
1.67
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.83
1.00
1.22
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (ADO Den Haag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.2%
@ 1.11-0.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
@ 5.59+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.60
Unibet
5.60
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.4%
@ 1.62-5.1%
Under 1.5
47.6%
@ 2.19+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.3%
@ 2.91-8.6%
Under 2.5
76.7%
@ 1.36+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Unibet
2.90
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Under
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ADO Den Haag over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.9%
@ 1.42-18.8%
Under
53.1%
@ 2.71+18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Under
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.70
ADO Den Haag over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.5%
@ 2.96-19.7%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.34+19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.04
10Bet
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
ADO Den Haag over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 7.10-11.0%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.06+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.5%
@ 1.63+7.7%
Under
35.5%
@ 2.15-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.01
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.9%
@ 3.87+3.0%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.21-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.96
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.1%
@ 8.75-5.6%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.05+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+11.0%
Under 7.5
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Under 6.5
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
-
+1.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
+8.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.20
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+14.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.34
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
-
+19.7%
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+3.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+10.0%
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+15.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+7.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-4.8%
Under 5.5
85.1%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+0.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
-0.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
-2.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
80.1%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+11.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
78.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-5.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.7%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+0.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.36
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
+8.6%
Under 4.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-2.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.1%
1.21
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-
-3.0%
Home +2 handicap
71.7%
1.10
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
-11.0%
Under 4.5
71.7%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Unibet
1.28
-0.6%
Draw or Away
71.5%
1.74
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
+17.6%
Away +1 handicap
71.5%
1.73
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
+19.8%
Over 8.5 corners
71.3%
1.40
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
+4.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ADO Den Haag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nigel Thomas33%
Sekou Sylla25%
Evan Rottier25%
Yannick Eduardo25%
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Juho Kilo0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Pascal Mulder0%
Matteo Waem0%
Milan Hokke0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Finn de Bruin0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juho Kilo50%
Evan Rottier50%
Pascal Mulder25%
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Sekou Sylla0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Matteo Waem0%
Milan Hokke0%
Yannick Eduardo0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Finn de Bruin0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nigel Thomas33%
Finn de Bruin33%
Evan Rottier25%
Milan Hokke25%
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Sekou Sylla0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Juho Kilo0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Pascal Mulder0%
Matteo Waem0%
Yannick Eduardo0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Sekou Sylla0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Juho Kilo0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Pascal Mulder0%
Matteo Waem0%
Evan Rottier0%
Milan Hokke0%
Yannick Eduardo0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Finn de Bruin0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
Fortuna Sittard
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Édouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Édouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Édouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Édouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
ADO Den Haag's squad is €4m less valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€13m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
ADO Den Haag and Fortuna Sittard have a similar attack value (both €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
ADO Den Haag's midfield is €2m less valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
ADO Den Haag's defence is €2m less valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€5m vs €7m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
Utrecht
Cambuur