A high-scoring encounter is projected as both sides have similar offensive output, with ADO Den Haag averaging 1.88 goals at home and conceding 2.0, while Heerenveen scores 1.67 and concedes 1.67 on the road. The model favours a home win, with a 38% chance, a draw 25%, and an away win 37%. The expected total is 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.3% probability. The match is likely to see a 1-1 outcome, a tidy draw that balances the teams’ equal scoring and conceding figures. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Under 6.5 (93.3%), Under 5.5 cards (89.5%), Away +2 handicap (87.2%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.0%), Under 5.5 (85.4%), and Away under 3.5 goals (85.0%). Both sides entered the fixture after a draw, with ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen each finishing 2-2 in their last matches.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ADO Den Haag win
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen win
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
ADO Den Haag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.33
2.21
1.29
1.75
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.62
1.88
2.00
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (12)
2.83
0.83
2.67
0.33
3.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.63
1.69
1.15
1.59
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.25
0.67
1.33
1.40
2.80
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.43
1.89
1.11
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (ADO Den Haag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
5.3%
1-0
5.1%
0-0
4.9%
ADO Den Haag goals ↓
Heerenveen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.4%
5.3%
3.0%
1.2%
1
5.1%
11%
8.5%
4.7%
2.0%
2
4.9%
8.1%
6.8%
3.7%
1.6%
3
2.6%
4.3%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ADO Den Haag goals (down), columns = Heerenveen goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
ADO Den Haag is 0.34 points worse than Heerenveen in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
ADO Den Haag is 0.39 goals worse than Heerenveen in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
ADO Den Haag is 0.40 goals worse than Heerenveen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.01 vs 1.61).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ADO Den Haag or Draw
50.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers ADO Den Haag + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag or Heerenveen
76.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers ADO Den Haag + Heerenveen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Heerenveen
73.1%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers Draw + Heerenveen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ADO Den Haag over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag over/under 1.5
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5
Over
87.2%
Under
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 3.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ADO Den Haag, so a minus line means ADO Den Haag give that many goals of a start and Heerenveen receive them. At -1, ADO Den Haag must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ADO Den Haag win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag -2
4.6%
Draw -2
8.0%
Heerenveen +2
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag -1
12.6%
Draw -1
14.3%
Heerenveen +1
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag +1
50.0%
Draw +1
20.2%
Heerenveen -1
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ADO Den Haag)
ADO Den Haag +2
70.2%
Draw +2
15.3%
Heerenveen -2
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ADO Den Haag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.71
0.93
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.94
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.17
0.67
0.17
1.33
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.69
0.62
0.53
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.38
0.33
1.33
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.52
0.78
0.44
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (ADO Den Haag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ADO Den Haag over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ADO Den Haag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.50
0.36
0.94
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
1.12
0.50
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.67
2.00
0.17
1.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.00
0.54
1.06
1.18
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.00
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.90
1.11
0.67
1.17
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (ADO Den Haag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ADO Den Haag over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ADO Den Haag over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ADO Den Haag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nigel Thomas33%
Sekou Sylla25%
Evan Rottier25%
Yannick Eduardo25%
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Juho Kilo0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Pascal Mulder0%
Matteo Waem0%
Milan Hokke0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Finn de Bruin0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juho Kilo50%
Evan Rottier50%
Pascal Mulder25%
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Sekou Sylla0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Matteo Waem0%
Milan Hokke0%
Yannick Eduardo0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Finn de Bruin0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nigel Thomas33%
Finn de Bruin33%
Evan Rottier25%
Milan Hokke25%
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Sekou Sylla0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Juho Kilo0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Pascal Mulder0%
Matteo Waem0%
Yannick Eduardo0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jan Žambůrek0%
Daryl van Mieghem0%
Sekou Sylla0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Kilian Nikièma0%
Juho Kilo0%
Jalen Hawkins0%
Pascal Mulder0%
Matteo Waem0%
Evan Rottier0%
Milan Hokke0%
Yannick Eduardo0%
Jesse Bal0%
Othniël Raterink0%
Finn de Bruin0%
Illaijh de Ruijter0%
Heerenveen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
ADO Den Haag's squad is €37m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€13m vs €50m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
ADO Den Haag's attack is €17m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€7m vs €24m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
ADO Den Haag's midfield is €5m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€1m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
ADO Den Haag's defence is €16m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€5m vs €20m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →