AEK Athens FC are tipped to lift the trophy, with the model favouring a home win at 50%. The expected goal tally sits at 2.6, pointing to a modestly open encounter. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% chance. AEK’s home form shows they average 2.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded against weaker opposition, while Aris, playing away against stronger teams, manage just 0.5 goals and concede 1.25. The probabilities for the match outcome are 50% for a home win, 27% for a draw and 23% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.0%), Home +2 handicap (91.5%) and Under 4.5 (87.8%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, reflecting the high confidence in a low-scoring, home-side advantage.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, with AEK Athens FC securing a 1-0 home win over Aris Thessalonikis. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 50% probability and the result matched the forecast. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the home side’s victory. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.5%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.3%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%) hit, Under 5.5 (95.1%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (92.2%) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (92.0%) hit, Home +2 handicap (91.5%) hit, and Under 4.5 (87.8%) hit. AEK’s unbeaten run in their last five matches and Aris’s five-game winning streak set the stage for a tight contest that ended in a narrow home triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Athens FC win✓ Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.90
2.33
0.60
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.22
1.80
0.60
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
2.19
0.76
2.60
0.60
1.82
0.91
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.62
1.15
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.60
1.50
1.83
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.14
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.69
2.00
0.33
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0 ✓
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.0%
AEK Athens FC goals ↓
Aris Thessalonikis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.3%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.5%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.0%
5.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Athens FC goals (down), columns = Aris Thessalonikis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aris Avato
2.33
Nea Ionia
2.33
Asteras Tripolis
2.29
Apollon Krya Vrysi
2.25
PAOK
2.25
Ethnikos Piraeus
2.25
Makedonikos Neapolis
2.00
Kifisia
2.00
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.00
Volos NFC
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Anagennisi Artas
2.00
OFI
2.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
2.00
Iraklis 1908
2.00
PAS Giannina
2.00
Panserraikos
2.00
Panargiakos
2.00
Panachaiki FC
1.86
Panathinaikos
1.75
AEK Athens FC
1.67
Zakynthos
1.67
Diagoras
1.67
Mandraikos
1.50
Evosmou
1.50
Nea Artaki
1.50
Kalamata
1.50
Ilioupoli
1.50
Erani Filiatra
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Atromitos Palamas
1.50
Thyella Kamari
1.50
Trikala
1.50
Aigeas Plomariou
1.50
Panthrakikos
1.50
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
1.50
Panionios
1.43
Egaleo
1.40
Aris Thessalonikis
1.33
Larisa
1.33
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Korinthos
1.00
Atromitos
1.00
Kallithea
0.67
Afantou
0.50
Kissamikos
0.00
Diagoras Ikaria
0.00
Panlakonikos
0.00
Ermis Amyntaio
0.00
Levadiakos
0.00
Agios Nikolaos
0.00
Apollon Paralimniou
0.00
Olympiakos Volos
0.00
Kydonias
0.00
Panetolikos
0.00
Orestis Orestiadas
0.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
0.00
Pallixouriakos
0.00
Apollo Efpaliou
0.00
Ermionida
0.00
Doxa Volakas
0.00
Kilkisiakos
0.00
Episkopi
0.00
PAO Vardas
0.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
0.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
0.00
Eordaikos
0.00
Sartis
0.00
Smolikas Falanis
0.00
Lamia
0.00
Astir Stavros
0.00
Akadimia Platamona
0.00
Naousa
0.00
Byron Kavala
0.00
Ermis Kanaliou
0.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
0.00
Lefkimmi
0.00
Thyella Katsikas
0.00
Thyella Patras
0.00
AEK Athens FC is 0.33 points better than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PAS Giannina
6.00
Panthrakikos
4.50
Kifisia
3.40
Iraklis 1908
3.00
PAOK
2.75
Apollon Krya Vrysi
2.50
Nea Artaki
2.50
Zakynthos
2.17
Panlakonikos
2.00
Evosmou
2.00
Doxa Volakas
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Anagennisi Artas
2.00
Erani Filiatra
2.00
Ethnikos Piraeus
2.00
Atromitos Palamas
2.00
Aigeas Plomariou
2.00
Panargiakos
2.00
Asteras Tripolis
1.86
OFI
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.71
Volos NFC
1.67
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.67
Ilioupoli
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Trikala
1.50
Panachaiki FC
1.43
Atromitos
1.33
Panionios
1.29
Panathinaikos
1.25
Egaleo
1.20
Kissamikos
1.00
Levadiakos
1.00
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Agios Nikolaos
1.00
Mandraikos
1.00
Apollon Paralimniou
1.00
Olympiakos Volos
1.00
Panetolikos
1.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
1.00
Eordaikos
1.00
Larisa
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
Akadimia Platamona
1.00
Aris Avato
1.00
Thyella Patras
1.00
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
1.00
AEK Athens FC
0.83
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
Diagoras
0.67
Nea Ionia
0.67
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.50
Kalamata
0.50
Afantou
0.50
Thyella Kamari
0.50
Kallithea
0.33
Diagoras Ikaria
0.00
Ermis Amyntaio
0.00
Kydonias
0.00
Korinthos
0.00
Orestis Orestiadas
0.00
Pallixouriakos
0.00
Apollo Efpaliou
0.00
Ermionida
0.00
Kilkisiakos
0.00
Episkopi
0.00
PAO Vardas
0.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
0.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
0.00
Sartis
0.00
Smolikas Falanis
0.00
Lamia
0.00
Astir Stavros
0.00
Naousa
0.00
Byron Kavala
0.00
Ermis Kanaliou
0.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
0.00
Lefkimmi
0.00
Thyella Katsikas
0.00
AEK Athens FC is 0.17 goals better than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.00
Korinthos
0.00
Diagoras
0.00
Nea Ionia
0.00
Anagennisi Artas
0.33
Larisa
0.33
Aris Avato
0.33
Kifisia
0.40
Kalamata
0.50
Ilioupoli
0.50
PAOK
0.50
Iraklis 1908
0.50
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
0.50
Asteras Tripolis
0.57
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.57
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
PAS Giannina
0.67
Kallithea
0.67
Panionios
0.86
OFI
0.88
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Mandraikos
1.00
Volos NFC
1.00
Orestis Orestiadas
1.00
Kilkisiakos
1.00
Episkopi
1.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.00
Panathinaikos
1.00
Ethnikos Piraeus
1.00
Afantou
1.00
Thyella Kamari
1.00
Smolikas Falanis
1.00
Lamia
1.00
Astir Stavros
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
Byron Kavala
1.00
Aigeas Plomariou
1.00
Panthrakikos
1.00
Panachaiki FC
1.29
AEK Athens FC
1.33
Kavala
1.33
Zakynthos
1.33
Apollon Krya Vrysi
1.50
Evosmou
1.50
Nea Artaki
1.50
Erani Filiatra
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Atromitos Palamas
1.50
Atromitos
1.67
Panargiakos
1.67
Levadiakos
2.00
Panetolikos
2.00
Trikala
2.00
Naousa
2.00
Thyella Patras
2.00
Egaleo
2.60
Kissamikos
3.00
Agios Nikolaos
3.00
Pallixouriakos
3.00
Apollo Efpaliou
3.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
3.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
3.00
Eordaikos
3.00
Akadimia Platamona
3.00
Ermis Kanaliou
3.00
Lefkimmi
3.00
Thyella Katsikas
3.00
Panlakonikos
4.00
Apollon Paralimniou
4.00
Olympiakos Volos
4.00
Kydonias
4.00
Doxa Volakas
4.00
Ermis Amyntaio
5.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
5.00
PAO Vardas
5.00
Ermionida
7.00
Sartis
9.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
11.00
Diagoras Ikaria
14.00
AEK Athens FC is 0.67 goals worse than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Athens FC
For 7.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 12.4 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris Thessalonikis
For 5.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 16.1 · Total 29.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.3
10.4
5.0
4.7
5.4
27.7
27.3
28.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
7.0
-
7.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (15)
9.6
8.9
10.7
6.1
6.3
5.7
28.1
28.2
27.8
vs Weaker (34)
10.8
11.2
10.3
4.5
3.8
5.2
27.7
26.8
28.6
% over line
51%
50%
52%
66%
58%
75%
91%
92%
90%
% under line
49%
50%
48%
34%
42%
25%
9%
8%
10%
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.2
8.0
5.6
5.4
5.9
30.5
29.6
31.4
vs Stronger (14)
8.3
7.9
8.7
5.2
5.9
4.6
27.9
30.6
25.3
vs Similar (11)
9.5
9.8
9.3
5.6
5.0
6.0
31.1
32.0
30.5
vs Weaker (25)
8.4
9.8
6.9
5.9
5.2
6.6
31.8
28.3
35.5
% over line
41%
50%
32%
82%
79%
85%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
59%
50%
68%
18%
21%
15%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Panionios
10.4
Kifisia
10.2
AEK Athens FC
10.2
PAS Giannina
9.6
Lamia
9.2
Panathinaikos
9.1
Kallithea
9.0
Volos NFC
8.9
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
Larisa
8.8
PAOK
8.7
Aris Thessalonikis
8.6
Levadiakos
8.5
Panetolikos
8.4
Asteras Tripolis
8.4
Ionikos
8.3
Atromitos
8.2
OFI
8.1
Panserraikos
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Panserraikos
6.9
Kifisia
6.7
Atromitos
6.3
Volos NFC
6.2
Larisa
6.1
Kallithea
5.9
OFI
5.9
Panionios
5.8
Aris Thessalonikis
5.8
AEK Athens FC
5.7
Levadiakos
5.7
Panathinaikos
5.7
Asteras Tripolis
5.4
Lamia
5.3
PAOK
5.3
PAS Giannina
5.1
Panetolikos
5.1
Ionikos
5.1
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Larisa
36.2
Volos NFC
33.2
Levadiakos
33.1
Ionikos
32.9
Panserraikos
31.4
Aris Thessalonikis
30.5
OFI
30.3
Panionios
30.3
Kifisia
30.3
Kallithea
30.1
Atromitos
30.1
Lamia
29.7
PAS Giannina
29.4
Panathinaikos
29.0
Panetolikos
29.0
Asteras Tripolis
28.0
AEK Athens FC
27.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
PAOK
24.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.5%
Under 3.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.3%
Under 21.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AEK Athens FC or Draw✓ Hit
77.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers AEK Athens FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers AEK Athens FC + Aris Thessalonikis
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aris Thessalonikis✗ Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Aris Thessalonikis
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AEK Athens FC, so a minus line means AEK Athens FC give that many goals of a start and Aris Thessalonikis receive them. At -1, AEK Athens FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AEK Athens FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.54
0.31
0.35
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.70
0.67
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.38
0.23
0.50
0.00
0.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.78
0.80
0.40
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.43
1.10
0.30
1.18
0.55
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
1.08
0.85
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.90
0.83
1.17
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.46
1.50
0.33
1.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEK Athens FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Martial33%
Steven Zuber33%
Levi García33%
Frantzdy Pierrot22%
Harold Moukoudi20%
Gerasimos Mitoglou20%
Erik Lamela17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Niclas Eliasson15%
Mijat Gaćinović11%
Aboubakary Koita9%
Petros Mantalos8%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Paolo Fernandes5%
Jens Jønsson5%
Robert Ljubičić5%
Orbelín Pineda3%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Domagoj Vida0%
Alexander Callens0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Damian Szymański0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Lazaros Rota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Erik Lamela39%
Petros Mantalos33%
Moses Odubajo33%
Jens Jønsson32%
Harold Moukoudi30%
Mijat Gaćinović26%
Lazaros Rota25%
Stavros Pilios24%
Aboubakary Koita22%
Damian Szymański20%
Orbelín Pineda17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Frantzdy Pierrot15%
Levi García13%
Gerasimos Mitoglou13%
Roberto Pereyra12%
Alberto Brignoli11%
Paolo Fernandes11%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Anthony Martial6%
Niclas Eliasson5%
Thomas Strakosha5%
Robert Ljubičić5%
Domagoj Vida4%
Alexander Callens0%
Steven Zuber0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aboubakary Koita17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Robert Ljubičić14%
Levi García13%
Erik Lamela13%
Petros Mantalos12%
Lazaros Rota12%
Damian Szymański12%
Domagoj Vida8%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Orbelín Pineda7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Anthony Martial6%
Paolo Fernandes5%
Niclas Eliasson5%
Mijat Gaćinović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Alexander Callens0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Steven Zuber0%
Frantzdy Pierrot0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Jens Jønsson0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Levi García27%
Frantzdy Pierrot19%
Erik Lamela17%
Aboubakary Koita17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Sotiris Tsiloulis17%
Anthony Martial11%
Paolo Fernandes11%
Niclas Eliasson10%
Robert Ljubičić9%
Domagoj Vida8%
Moses Odubajo7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Harold Moukoudi5%
Petros Mantalos4%
Roberto Pereyra4%
Mijat Gaćinović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Alexander Callens0%
Ehsan Hajsafi0%
Steven Zuber0%
Damian Szymański0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Orbelín Pineda0%
Jens Jønsson0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
Aris Thessalonikis
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loren Morón47%
Manu García22%
Dario Špikić17%
Dudu14%
Monchu10%
Álvaro Zamora10%
Hamza Mendyl8%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Kike Saverio8%
Jakub Brabec7%
Hugo Mallo5%
José Cifuentes3%
Robin Quaison0%
Fabiano0%
Martín Montoya0%
Vladimír Darida0%
Juankar0%
Rubén Pardo0%
Pione Sisto0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Julián Cuesta0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Fran Vélez0%
Giannis Fetfatzidis0%
Jean Jules Mvondo0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Clayton Diandy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Vélez33%
Martín Montoya32%
Monchu30%
Martin Frýdek27%
Hamza Mendyl25%
Hugo Mallo25%
Jean Jules Mvondo25%
Jakub Brabec24%
Álvaro Zamora20%
Fabiano17%
Vladimír Darida17%
Loren Morón17%
Dario Špikić17%
Manu García17%
Dudu14%
José Cifuentes14%
Lindsay Rose12%
Juankar11%
Rubén Pardo11%
Pione Sisto10%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Kike Saverio8%
Giannis Fetfatzidis5%
Clayton Diandy5%
Julián Cuesta3%
Robin Quaison0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Monchu27%
Hamza Mendyl17%
Martín Montoya14%
Kike Saverio12%
José Cifuentes10%
Pione Sisto10%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Manu García6%
Giannis Fetfatzidis5%
Clayton Diandy5%
Hugo Mallo5%
Loren Morón3%
Jakub Brabec0%
Robin Quaison0%
Fabiano0%
Dario Špikić0%
Vladimír Darida0%
Juankar0%
Rubén Pardo0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Julián Cuesta0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Fran Vélez0%
Jean Jules Mvondo0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Dudu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loren Morón40%
Manu García11%
Monchu10%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Dario Špikić8%
Vladimír Darida7%
Clayton Diandy5%
Kike Saverio4%
José Cifuentes3%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Jakub Brabec0%
Robin Quaison0%
Fabiano0%
Martín Montoya0%
Juankar0%
Rubén Pardo0%
Hugo Mallo0%
Pione Sisto0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Julián Cuesta0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Fran Vélez0%
Giannis Fetfatzidis0%
Jean Jules Mvondo0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Dudu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
KAL (28)
€11m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
ILI (31)
€4m
PG (36)
€4m
KAV (28)
€3m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
PAN (32)
€2m
AEK Athens FC's squad is €44m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€85m vs €41m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
EGA (19)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
I1 (6)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
KAV (12)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
PAN (12)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
AEK Athens FC's attack is €22m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€44m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
KAL (6)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
PG (7)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
PAN (7)
€0m
KAV (4)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
AEK Athens FC's midfield is €8m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€16m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
KAV (12)
€1m
MN (15)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
PAN (13)
€1m
AEK Athens FC's defence is €14m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€26m vs €12m).
Greece: Super League 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
PAOK
Levadiakos
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
Atromitos
Panserraikos
Volos NFC
OFI
Kallithea
Lamia