AEK Athens FC are favoured to win the cup tie against PAOK, with the model picking a home victory. The odds favour a 45% chance for AEK, 26% for a draw and 28% for PAOK. The expected total of goals is three, but the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance. AEK, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average two goals scored and only 0.33 conceded, while PAOK, on the road, average 0.67 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 5.5 (92.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.1%), Home +2 handicap (87.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.1%) and Under 4.5 (82.3%). AEK have been unbeaten in their last five, while PAOK come off a win.
Results analysis
AEK Athens FC’s unbeaten run in their last five games carried over into the Cup clash, while PAOK entered on a win. The model’s favourite, a home win at 45 percent, proved correct as AEK edged PAOK 1-0. The predicted 2-goal total was missed, but the model’s heavy-weight selections all hit: Under 7.5 at 98.9 percent, Under 6.5 at 96.9 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.8 percent, Under 5.5 at 92.1 percent, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.1 percent, Home +2 handicap at 87.4 percent, Away under 2.5 goals at 86.1 percent, and Under 4.5 at 82.3 percent. The final score of 1-0 matched the model’s forecast and confirmed its overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Athens FC win✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PAOK win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.77
2.36
0.36
1.25
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
2.00
0.33
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.83
0.54
2.45
0.36
1.31
0.69
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.13
2.27
1.40
1.93
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.50
1.80
1.20
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (22)
2.36
1.00
2.50
1.50
2.25
0.58
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
7.6%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.6%
AEK Athens FC goals ↓
PAOK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.6%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.6%
12%
7.2%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.3%
9.3%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.0%
5.2%
3.3%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Athens FC goals (down), columns = PAOK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aris Avato
2.33
Nea Ionia
2.33
Asteras Tripolis
2.29
Apollon Krya Vrysi
2.25
PAOK
2.25
Ethnikos Piraeus
2.25
Makedonikos Neapolis
2.00
Kifisia
2.00
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.00
Volos NFC
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Anagennisi Artas
2.00
OFI
2.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
2.00
Iraklis 1908
2.00
PAS Giannina
2.00
Panserraikos
2.00
Panargiakos
2.00
Panachaiki FC
1.86
Panathinaikos
1.75
AEK Athens FC
1.67
Zakynthos
1.67
Diagoras
1.67
Mandraikos
1.50
Evosmou
1.50
Nea Artaki
1.50
Kalamata
1.50
Ilioupoli
1.50
Erani Filiatra
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Atromitos Palamas
1.50
Thyella Kamari
1.50
Trikala
1.50
Aigeas Plomariou
1.50
Panthrakikos
1.50
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
1.50
Panionios
1.43
Egaleo
1.40
Aris Thessalonikis
1.33
Larisa
1.33
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Korinthos
1.00
Atromitos
1.00
Kallithea
0.67
Afantou
0.50
Kissamikos
0.00
Diagoras Ikaria
0.00
Panlakonikos
0.00
Ermis Amyntaio
0.00
Levadiakos
0.00
Agios Nikolaos
0.00
Apollon Paralimniou
0.00
Olympiakos Volos
0.00
Kydonias
0.00
Panetolikos
0.00
Orestis Orestiadas
0.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
0.00
Pallixouriakos
0.00
Apollo Efpaliou
0.00
Ermionida
0.00
Doxa Volakas
0.00
Kilkisiakos
0.00
Episkopi
0.00
PAO Vardas
0.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
0.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
0.00
Eordaikos
0.00
Sartis
0.00
Smolikas Falanis
0.00
Lamia
0.00
Astir Stavros
0.00
Akadimia Platamona
0.00
Naousa
0.00
Byron Kavala
0.00
Ermis Kanaliou
0.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
0.00
Lefkimmi
0.00
Thyella Katsikas
0.00
Thyella Patras
0.00
AEK Athens FC is 0.58 points worse than PAOK in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PAS Giannina
6.00
Panthrakikos
4.50
Kifisia
3.40
Iraklis 1908
3.00
PAOK
2.75
Apollon Krya Vrysi
2.50
Nea Artaki
2.50
Zakynthos
2.17
Panlakonikos
2.00
Evosmou
2.00
Doxa Volakas
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Anagennisi Artas
2.00
Erani Filiatra
2.00
Ethnikos Piraeus
2.00
Atromitos Palamas
2.00
Aigeas Plomariou
2.00
Panargiakos
2.00
Asteras Tripolis
1.86
OFI
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.71
Volos NFC
1.67
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.67
Ilioupoli
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Trikala
1.50
Panachaiki FC
1.43
Atromitos
1.33
Panionios
1.29
Panathinaikos
1.25
Egaleo
1.20
Kissamikos
1.00
Levadiakos
1.00
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Agios Nikolaos
1.00
Mandraikos
1.00
Apollon Paralimniou
1.00
Olympiakos Volos
1.00
Panetolikos
1.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
1.00
Eordaikos
1.00
Larisa
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
Akadimia Platamona
1.00
Aris Avato
1.00
Thyella Patras
1.00
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
1.00
AEK Athens FC
0.83
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
Diagoras
0.67
Nea Ionia
0.67
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.50
Kalamata
0.50
Afantou
0.50
Thyella Kamari
0.50
Kallithea
0.33
Diagoras Ikaria
0.00
Ermis Amyntaio
0.00
Kydonias
0.00
Korinthos
0.00
Orestis Orestiadas
0.00
Pallixouriakos
0.00
Apollo Efpaliou
0.00
Ermionida
0.00
Kilkisiakos
0.00
Episkopi
0.00
PAO Vardas
0.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
0.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
0.00
Sartis
0.00
Smolikas Falanis
0.00
Lamia
0.00
Astir Stavros
0.00
Naousa
0.00
Byron Kavala
0.00
Ermis Kanaliou
0.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
0.00
Lefkimmi
0.00
Thyella Katsikas
0.00
AEK Athens FC is 1.92 goals worse than PAOK in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.00
Korinthos
0.00
Diagoras
0.00
Nea Ionia
0.00
Anagennisi Artas
0.33
Larisa
0.33
Aris Avato
0.33
Kifisia
0.40
Kalamata
0.50
Ilioupoli
0.50
PAOK
0.50
Iraklis 1908
0.50
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
0.50
Asteras Tripolis
0.57
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.57
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
PAS Giannina
0.67
Kallithea
0.67
Panionios
0.86
OFI
0.88
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Mandraikos
1.00
Volos NFC
1.00
Orestis Orestiadas
1.00
Kilkisiakos
1.00
Episkopi
1.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.00
Panathinaikos
1.00
Ethnikos Piraeus
1.00
Afantou
1.00
Thyella Kamari
1.00
Smolikas Falanis
1.00
Lamia
1.00
Astir Stavros
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
Byron Kavala
1.00
Aigeas Plomariou
1.00
Panthrakikos
1.00
Panachaiki FC
1.29
AEK Athens FC
1.33
Kavala
1.33
Zakynthos
1.33
Apollon Krya Vrysi
1.50
Evosmou
1.50
Nea Artaki
1.50
Erani Filiatra
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Atromitos Palamas
1.50
Atromitos
1.67
Panargiakos
1.67
Levadiakos
2.00
Panetolikos
2.00
Trikala
2.00
Naousa
2.00
Thyella Patras
2.00
Egaleo
2.60
Kissamikos
3.00
Agios Nikolaos
3.00
Pallixouriakos
3.00
Apollo Efpaliou
3.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
3.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
3.00
Eordaikos
3.00
Akadimia Platamona
3.00
Ermis Kanaliou
3.00
Lefkimmi
3.00
Thyella Katsikas
3.00
Panlakonikos
4.00
Apollon Paralimniou
4.00
Olympiakos Volos
4.00
Kydonias
4.00
Doxa Volakas
4.00
Ermis Amyntaio
5.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
5.00
PAO Vardas
5.00
Ermionida
7.00
Sartis
9.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
11.00
Diagoras Ikaria
14.00
AEK Athens FC is 0.83 goals worse than PAOK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Athens FC
For 6.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PAOK
For 5.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.7
10.6
4.9
4.5
5.3
28.0
27.7
28.4
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
7.0
-
7.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (12)
9.0
7.5
10.5
6.0
6.7
5.3
28.4
30.3
26.5
vs Weaker (37)
10.7
10.6
10.7
4.5
3.7
5.2
28.0
26.7
29.4
% over line
53%
48%
59%
66%
58%
73%
93%
90%
95%
% under line
47%
52%
41%
34%
42%
27%
7%
10%
5%
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.5
8.1
4.8
4.9
4.7
24.9
24.5
25.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
8.8
9.2
8.0
5.5
5.4
5.5
23.9
23.8
24.0
vs Weaker (30)
8.8
9.9
8.1
4.4
4.4
4.4
25.8
25.6
26.0
% over line
37%
43%
32%
66%
76%
56%
74%
62%
86%
% under line
63%
57%
68%
34%
24%
44%
26%
38%
14%
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Panionios
10.4
Kifisia
10.2
AEK Athens FC
10.1
PAS Giannina
9.6
Panathinaikos
9.4
Kallithea
9.4
Lamia
9.3
Asteras Tripolis
9.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
PAOK
8.8
Larisa
8.8
Volos NFC
8.7
Aris Thessalonikis
8.6
Levadiakos
8.4
OFI
8.4
Panetolikos
8.3
Ionikos
8.3
Panserraikos
8.1
Atromitos
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Panserraikos
7.0
Kifisia
6.7
Atromitos
6.4
Volos NFC
6.3
Levadiakos
6.2
Larisa
6.1
Kallithea
6.0
OFI
5.9
Panionios
5.8
Panathinaikos
5.8
Aris Thessalonikis
5.8
AEK Athens FC
5.7
Asteras Tripolis
5.5
Panetolikos
5.4
PAOK
5.4
Lamia
5.2
PAS Giannina
5.1
Ionikos
5.1
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Larisa
36.2
Volos NFC
33.7
Ionikos
32.9
Levadiakos
32.8
Panserraikos
31.6
Panionios
30.3
Kifisia
30.3
Atromitos
30.3
OFI
30.1
Aris Thessalonikis
30.0
Kallithea
29.7
Lamia
29.5
PAS Giannina
29.4
Panathinaikos
28.8
Panetolikos
28.6
AEK Athens FC
27.7
Asteras Tripolis
27.7
PAOK
25.2
Olympiakos Piraeus
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.0%
Under 9.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.8%
Under 21.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AEK Athens FC or Draw✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers AEK Athens FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC or PAOK✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers AEK Athens FC + PAOK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or PAOK✗ Miss
54.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers Draw + PAOK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AEK Athens FC, so a minus line means AEK Athens FC give that many goals of a start and PAOK receive them. At -1, AEK Athens FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AEK Athens FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AEK Athens FC)Actual: PAOK
AEK Athens FC -2
10.4%
Draw -2
14.1%
PAOK +2
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AEK Athens FC)Actual: Draw
AEK Athens FC -1
24.4%
Draw -1
20.9%
PAOK +1
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AEK Athens FC)Actual: AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC +1
71.6%
Draw +1
15.8%
PAOK -1
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AEK Athens FC)Actual: AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC +2
87.4%
Draw +2
8.3%
PAOK -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.50
0.14
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.29
1.55
0.09
0.46
0.46
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
1.00
0.53
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.27
1.30
0.40
0.75
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.86
0.21
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
2.33
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.25
0.91
0.27
0.85
0.23
Clean sheet %
80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.77
1.27
0.87
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.88
1.40
0.40
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.36
0.73
1.20
1.10
1.50
0.42
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEK Athens FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Martial33%
Steven Zuber33%
Levi García33%
Frantzdy Pierrot22%
Harold Moukoudi20%
Gerasimos Mitoglou20%
Erik Lamela17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Niclas Eliasson15%
Mijat Gaćinović11%
Aboubakary Koita9%
Petros Mantalos8%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Paolo Fernandes5%
Jens Jønsson5%
Robert Ljubičić5%
Orbelín Pineda3%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Domagoj Vida0%
Alexander Callens0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Damian Szymański0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Lazaros Rota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Erik Lamela39%
Petros Mantalos33%
Moses Odubajo33%
Jens Jønsson32%
Harold Moukoudi30%
Mijat Gaćinović26%
Lazaros Rota25%
Stavros Pilios24%
Aboubakary Koita22%
Damian Szymański20%
Orbelín Pineda17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Frantzdy Pierrot15%
Levi García13%
Gerasimos Mitoglou13%
Roberto Pereyra12%
Alberto Brignoli11%
Paolo Fernandes11%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Anthony Martial6%
Niclas Eliasson5%
Thomas Strakosha5%
Robert Ljubičić5%
Domagoj Vida4%
Alexander Callens0%
Steven Zuber0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aboubakary Koita17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Robert Ljubičić14%
Levi García13%
Erik Lamela13%
Petros Mantalos12%
Lazaros Rota12%
Damian Szymański12%
Domagoj Vida8%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Orbelín Pineda7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Anthony Martial6%
Paolo Fernandes5%
Niclas Eliasson5%
Mijat Gaćinović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Alexander Callens0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Steven Zuber0%
Frantzdy Pierrot0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Jens Jønsson0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Levi García27%
Frantzdy Pierrot19%
Erik Lamela17%
Aboubakary Koita17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Sotiris Tsiloulis17%
Anthony Martial11%
Paolo Fernandes11%
Niclas Eliasson10%
Robert Ljubičić9%
Domagoj Vida8%
Moses Odubajo7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Harold Moukoudi5%
Petros Mantalos4%
Roberto Pereyra4%
Mijat Gaćinović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Alexander Callens0%
Ehsan Hajsafi0%
Steven Zuber0%
Damian Szymański0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Orbelín Pineda0%
Jens Jønsson0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
PAOK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mbwana Ally Samatta29%
Andrija Živković25%
Mady Camara24%
Giannis Konstantelias18%
Kiril Despodov17%
Abdul Rahman Baba15%
Fedor Chalov14%
Tarik Tissoudali14%
Stefan Schwab14%
Dimitrios Pelkas13%
Ioannis Michailidis12%
Taison9%
Shola Shoretire8%
Thomas Murg7%
Brandon Thomas6%
Joan Sastre5%
Magomed Ozdoev3%
Dejan Lovren0%
Dominik Kotarski0%
Tiemoué Bakayoko0%
Tomasz Kędziora0%
Vieirinha0%
Jonny Otto0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Omar Colley0%
Soualiho Meïté0%
Mateusz Wieteska0%
Sergio Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dejan Lovren29%
Dimitrios Pelkas27%
Mady Camara26%
Ioannis Michailidis25%
Magomed Ozdoev24%
Vieirinha20%
Jonny Otto19%
Andrija Živković19%
Tarik Tissoudali14%
Abdul Rahman Baba13%
Tiemoué Bakayoko12%
Kiril Despodov11%
Stefan Schwab11%
Giannis Konstantelias11%
Mateusz Wieteska10%
Joan Sastre9%
Tomasz Kędziora9%
Shola Shoretire8%
Dominik Kotarski8%
Omar Colley8%
Mbwana Ally Samatta7%
Taison6%
Brandon Thomas6%
Fedor Chalov3%
Thomas Murg0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Soualiho Meïté0%
Sergio Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vieirinha20%
Kiril Despodov20%
Andrija Živković19%
Fedor Chalov14%
Mbwana Ally Samatta14%
Dimitrios Pelkas13%
Taison9%
Jonny Otto6%
Mady Camara5%
Tarik Tissoudali5%
Joan Sastre5%
Ioannis Michailidis4%
Magomed Ozdoev3%
Stefan Schwab3%
Giannis Konstantelias3%
Abdul Rahman Baba3%
Dejan Lovren0%
Dominik Kotarski0%
Tiemoué Bakayoko0%
Thomas Murg0%
Tomasz Kędziora0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Omar Colley0%
Soualiho Meïté0%
Mateusz Wieteska0%
Sergio Peña0%
Brandon Thomas0%
Shola Shoretire0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giannis Konstantelias16%
Thomas Murg14%
Mbwana Ally Samatta14%
Taison12%
Stefan Schwab11%
Mady Camara8%
Andrija Živković6%
Kiril Despodov6%
Fedor Chalov3%
Dejan Lovren0%
Dominik Kotarski0%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Tiemoué Bakayoko0%
Tomasz Kędziora0%
Dimitrios Pelkas0%
Vieirinha0%
Tarik Tissoudali0%
Jonny Otto0%
Abdul Rahman Baba0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Omar Colley0%
Soualiho Meïté0%
Mateusz Wieteska0%
Sergio Peña0%
Brandon Thomas0%
Joan Sastre0%
Ioannis Michailidis0%
Shola Shoretire0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
KAL (28)
€11m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
ILI (31)
€4m
PG (36)
€4m
KAV (28)
€3m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
PAN (32)
€2m
AEK Athens FC's squad is €3m more valuable than PAOK's (€85m vs €82m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
EGA (19)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
I1 (6)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
KAV (12)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
PAN (12)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
AEK Athens FC's attack is €14m more valuable than PAOK's (€44m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
KAL (6)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
PG (7)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
PAN (7)
€0m
KAV (4)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
AEK Athens FC's midfield is €12m less valuable than PAOK's (€16m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
KAV (12)
€1m
MN (15)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
PAN (13)
€1m
AEK Athens FC's defence is €2m more valuable than PAOK's (€26m vs €24m).
Greece: Super League 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
Aris Thessalonikis
Levadiakos
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
Atromitos
Panserraikos
Volos NFC
OFI
Kallithea
Lamia