AF Elbasani’s defensive solidity is highlighted by an average of 0.62 goals conceded at home, while they manage 1.38 goals per match against similarly ranked opponents. Dinamo Tirana, on the road, has a more porous backline, giving up 1.15 goals on average, and scoring only 0.85 against comparable teams. The model projects a tight affair, with a 44% chance of a home win, 34% for a draw, and 22% for an away victory, making a home win the most likely outcome. The expected total of 1.8 goals points to a low-scoring game, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-0, which carries a 17.7% probability. Recent form suggests both sides are coming off draws, with Elbasani 1-1 against Vllaznia Shkodër and Dinamo 2-2 versus Pafos. The model’s selections favour a low-goal outcome: Under 3.5 goals at 89% and Under 2.5 at 72.8%. These figures underline the defensive focus expected in the match.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: AF Elbasani, the pre-match favourite with a 44% probability of victory, fell 0-5 to Dinamo Tirana, who won with a 22% chance. The model’s pick was wrong. The suggested selections Under 3.5 (89%) and Under 2.5 (72.8%) both missed, as the match produced five goals. AF Elbasani had come off a draw in their last five games, while Dinamo Tirana also ended their run with a draw. The final score of 0-5 confirms the away side’s dominance and the model’s predictions were off on both the outcome and the goal totals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AF Elbasani win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana win✓ Hit
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.77
2.12
0.62
1.64
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.76
1.38
0.62
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (13)
2.85
0.77
2.88
0.62
2.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.40
1.00
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.04
1.08
1.23
1.00
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.2%
Under 1.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
27.2%
Under 2.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
11.0%
Under 3.5
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
34.9%
No
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.7%
1-0
17.0%
1-1
13.9%
2-0
10.2%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
4.4%
0-2
4.0%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Dinamo Tirana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
10%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.4%
1.0%
0.2%
2
10%
7.1%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
3
3.8%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tirana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.66
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Partizani
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.45
AF Elbasani
1.39
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Bylis
1.17
Tirana
1.08
Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani is 0.06 points worse than Dinamo Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.47
Dinamo Tirana
1.34
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.34
Tirana
1.19
AF Elbasani
1.11
Partizani
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
0.97
Bylis
0.92
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.81
AF Elbasani is 0.23 goals worse than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.79
Partizani
0.89
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.16
Teuta Durrës
1.17
Dinamo Tirana
1.18
Tirana
1.22
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25
Bylis
1.39
AF Elbasani is 0.13 goals better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.31
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.41
0.62
0.25
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.23
1.38
0.38
1.20
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.47
0.27
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.38
0.31
0.31
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.12
0.31
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.35
0.75
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.54
1.50
0.25
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.93
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.69
0.92
0.69
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
AF Elbasani's squad is €1m less valuable than Dinamo Tirana's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Dinamo Tirana have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Dinamo Tirana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Dinamo Tirana have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Vllaznia Shkodër
Partizani
Teuta Durrës
Bylis
Tirana
Skenderbeu Korce
Laci