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AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 1-0
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Vs
44%
30%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

AF Elbasani are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win as the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with a 14.1% chance. In the home side’s recent form they have scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 1.19 against teams of similar strength, while Dinamo Tirana, playing away, have managed 1.08 goals and yielded 1.54. The probabilities for the match result are 44% for a home win, 30% for a draw and 26% for an away win. The model’s selection, Under 3.5, carries a 78.9% chance of hitting.

Results analysis

The win extends AF Elbasani’s recent form, as they beat Dinamo Tirana 1-0, confirming the model’s prediction of a home victory. The model, favouring a home win with a 44% probability, was correct. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, but the match settled for 1-0, a result that still satisfies the model’s overall forecast. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit with a 78.9% probability, matching the final tally of one goal. Both teams entered the game with similar recent performances: Elbasani had a draw, Dinamo had a win, yet the home side’s edge proved decisive.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AF Elbasani win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana win✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W21W21W10W11D02L10W11DA·TEU11/03H·DIN16/03A·LAC26/03H·TIR31/03A·EGN07/04H·BYL12/04H·VLL19/04A·PAR27/04H·FLA23/08A·EGN30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.171.251.191.001.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.131.171.251.191.001.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L12L12L21W11D12L10W03L11D31WH·TIR27/04A·VLL04/05H·PAR10/05A·ATL24/07H·ATL31/07A·HNK07/08H·HNK14/08A·JAG21/08H·JAG28/08H·VLL31/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.271.470.871.001.67
vs Stronger (4)0.751.501.000.500.502.50
vs Similar (26)1.311.231.540.921.081.54
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0 ✓
11.6%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.7%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Dinamo Tirana goals →
01234
011%8.2%4.7%1.6%0.4%
112%14%6.4%2.1%0.5%
28.7%8.7%4.3%1.4%0.4%
33.9%3.9%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.3%1.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tirana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Besa Kavajë
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Pogradeci
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 0.41 points better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Flamurtari
1.08
Vora
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 0.21 goals better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.00
Pogradeci
0.33
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
AF Elbasani is 0.10 goals worse than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W01L20W10W00D01L10W10WA·TEU11/03H·DIN16/03A·LAC26/03H·TIR31/03A·EGN07/04H·BYL12/04H·VLL19/04A·PAR27/04H·FLA23/08A·EGN30/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.380.690.640.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.600.380.690.640.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L11D01L10W10W10W02L00D10WH·TIR27/04A·VLL04/05H·PAR10/05A·ATL24/07H·ATL31/07A·HNK07/08H·HNK14/08A·JAG21/08H·JAG28/08H·VLL31/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.730.270.400.67
vs Stronger (4)0.500.500.500.000.501.00
vs Similar (26)0.580.460.770.310.380.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D20W01L00D11D01L00D01LA·TEU11/03H·DIN16/03A·LAC26/03H·TIR31/03A·EGN07/04H·BYL12/04H·VLL19/04A·PAR27/04H·FLA23/08A·EGN30/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.880.500.360.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.630.570.880.500.360.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L20W01L02L00D01L11D21WH·TIR27/04A·VLL04/05H·PAR10/05A·ATL24/07H·ATL31/07A·HNK07/08H·HNK14/08A·JAG21/08H·JAG28/08H·VLL31/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.730.600.601.00
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.500.500.001.50
vs Similar (26)0.730.770.770.620.690.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
AF Elbasani's squad is €1m less valuable than Dinamo Tirana's (€5m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Dinamo Tirana have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF Elbasani and Dinamo Tirana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
AF Elbasani and Dinamo Tirana have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
AE wins
1
Draws
3
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana · H/A from AE
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana1-1
19/01/25ADinamo Tirana Vs AE3-1
04/11/24HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana0-5
01/09/24ADinamo Tirana Vs AE2-1

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs AE1-1
23/08/25HAE Vs Flamurtari1-0
27/04/25APartizani Vs AE2-0
19/04/25HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-1
12/04/25HAE Vs Bylis1-0
07/04/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs AE1-2
31/03/25HAE Vs Tirana2-1
26/03/25ALaci Vs AE0-1
16/03/25HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana1-1
11/03/25ATeuta Durrës Vs AE0-0

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/25HDT Vs Vllaznia Shkodër3-1
28/08/25HDT Vs Jagiellonia1-1
21/08/25AJagiellonia Vs DT3-0
14/08/25HDT Vs HNK Hajduk Split1-0
07/08/25AHNK Hajduk Split Vs DT2-1
31/07/25HDT Vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes1-1
24/07/25AAtlètic Club d'Escaldes Vs DT1-2
10/05/25HDT Vs Partizani1-2
04/05/25AVllaznia Shkodër Vs DT2-1
27/04/25HDT Vs Tirana0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.68
HomeDWWDW1.96
AwayDWWLD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%56%28%
AVG goals2.442.442.44
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.461.601.32
Conceded0.980.841.12
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet38%44%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.34
HomeLDWDW1.84
AwayLLWLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%52%16%
AVG goals2.382.282.48
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Over 3.5 %18%12%24%
Scored1.201.361.04
Conceded1.180.921.44
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3968
49%
1.7
5342+11
2.4
67%
51%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.1
-
2Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3966
49%
1.7
5035+15
2.2
62%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.9
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3963
46%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
56%
28%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.10.8
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3952
33%
1.3
4538+7
2.1
69%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.0
-
5PartizaniPartizani3648
36%
1.3
3848-10
2.4
72%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3745
27%
1.2
3337-4
1.9
49%
27%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.91.0
-
7TiranaTirana3644
31%
1.2
3646-10
2.3
69%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.3
-
8VoraVora3642
28%
1.2
3940-1
2.2
64%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
9BylisBylis3641
28%
1.1
3850-12
2.4
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10FlamurtariFlamurtari3636
22%
1.0
3945-6
2.3
69%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11PogradeciPogradeci34
33%
1.3
31+2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.00.3
-
12Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë24
50%
2.0
20+2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.00.0
-
13Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
14Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.03.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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