The match between AF Elbasani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away win are almost identical. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.6 % chance. AF Elbasani, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.87 conceded, while Egnatia Rrogozhinë, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include a 99.7 % chance of Under 7.5, 99.0 % for Under 6.5, 97.1 % for Away under 3.5 goals, 97.0 % for Under 5.5, 96.9 % for Home under 3.5 goals, 91.5 % for Under 4.5, 89.2 % for Away under 2.5 goals and 88.6 % for Home under 2.5 goals. The probabilities for the match outcome are 35 % home win, 31 % draw and 34 % away win. Both teams are coming off recent draws and wins respectively, adding to the uncertainty of the result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AF Elbasani win
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.13
1.79
0.93
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.50
1.13
1.79
0.93
1.25
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.5%
0-1
10.1%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.1%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.0%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.3%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.1%
7.5%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.3%
2.9%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
AF Elbasani is 0.05 points better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
AF Elbasani is 0.08 goals better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
AF Elbasani is 0.18 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.90).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AF Elbasani or Draw
63.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers AF Elbasani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
69.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers AF Elbasani + Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
67.2%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AF Elbasani, so a minus line means AF Elbasani give that many goals of a start and Egnatia Rrogozhinë receive them. At -1, AF Elbasani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AF Elbasani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani -2
4.4%
Draw -2
9.5%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë +2
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani -1
13.9%
Draw -1
18.8%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë +1
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani +1
63.1%
Draw +1
20.3%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -1
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani +2
83.4%
Draw +2
11.0%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.6%
Under 0.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.6%
Under 1.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
Under 0.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.4%
Under 1.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
AF Elbasani's squad is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
AF Elbasani's defence is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€2m vs €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana