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AF Elbasani vs Flamurtari Result & Analysis

Date: 14/01/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Vs
46%
32%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AF Elbasani winâś— Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari winâś— Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W10W10W11D00D00D10W10W23L11DA·TIR29/10A·FLA03/11H·EGN09/11A·DIN22/11H·PAR28/11A·TEU03/12H·VLL08/12A·VOR13/12A·BYL20/12H·TIR24/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.631.000.471.070.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.030.631.000.471.070.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W11D11D10W03L12L22D23LH·VLL29/10H·AF 03/11A·BYL07/11H·TIR23/11H·VOR29/11A·EGN04/12H·DIN08/12A·PAR13/12H·TEU19/12A·VLL24/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.201.441.311.141.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.001.451.081.580.901.30
vs Weaker (8)2.120.502.500.501.750.50
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.2%
Under 1.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.9%
Under 2.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.7%
Under 3.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.8%
No
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.2%
0-0
14.5%
1-1 âś“
14.1%
2-0
10.2%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
5.0%
3-0
4.2%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Flamurtari goals →
01234
015%9.0%4.0%1.0%0.2%
115%14%5.0%1.3%0.3%
210%8.0%3.1%0.8%0.2%
34.2%3.3%1.3%0.3%0.1%
41.3%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Flamurtari goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Besa Kavajë
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Pogradeci
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 0.74 points better than Flamurtari in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Flamurtari
1.08
Vora
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 0.28 goals better than Flamurtari in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.00
Pogradeci
0.33
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
AF Elbasani is 0.17 goals better than Flamurtari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D11D00D00D00D00D01L00DA·TIR29/10A·FLA03/11H·EGN09/11A·DIN22/11H·PAR28/11A·TEU03/12H·VLL08/12A·VOR13/12A·BYL20/12H·TIR24/12
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.230.330.130.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.230.330.130.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D10W11D10W01L01L01L12LH·VLL29/10H·AF 03/11A·BYL07/11H·TIR23/11H·VOR29/11A·EGN04/12H·DIN08/12A·PAR13/12H·TEU19/12A·VLL24/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.440.560.500.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.360.770.330.580.401.00
vs Weaker (8)0.750.380.750.500.750.25
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W10W00D00D00D10W10W22D11DA·TIR29/10A·FLA03/11H·EGN09/11A·DIN22/11H·PAR28/11A·TEU03/12H·VLL08/12A·VOR13/12A·BYL20/12H·TIR24/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.670.330.400.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.400.670.330.400.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W01L00D00D02L11D21W11DH·VLL29/10H·AF 03/11A·BYL07/11H·TIR23/11H·VOR29/11A·EGN04/12H·DIN08/12A·PAR13/12H·TEU19/12A·VLL24/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.531.000.750.640.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.640.680.751.000.500.30
vs Weaker (8)1.380.121.750.001.000.25
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.3%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
AE wins
2
Draws
1
FLA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani vs Flamurtari · H/A from AE
DateH/AGameScore
03/11/25AFlamurtari Vs AE0-1
23/08/25HAE Vs Flamurtari1-0
21/04/24AFlamurtari Vs AE2-2
04/02/24HAE Vs Flamurtari1-1
21/10/23AFlamurtari Vs AE2-1

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/12/25HAE Vs Tirana1-1
20/12/25ABylis Vs AE3-2
13/12/25AVora Vs AE0-1
08/12/25HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-0
03/12/25ATeuta Durrës Vs AE0-0
28/11/25HAE Vs Partizani0-0
22/11/25ADinamo Tirana Vs AE1-1
09/11/25HAE Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-0
03/11/25AFlamurtari Vs AE0-1
29/10/25ATirana Vs AE1-4

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/12/25AVllaznia Shkodër Vs FLA3-2
19/12/25HFLA Vs Teuta Durrës2-2
13/12/25APartizani Vs FLA2-1
08/12/25HFLA Vs Dinamo Tirana0-3
04/12/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs FLA0-1
29/11/25HFLA Vs Vora1-1
23/11/25HFLA Vs Tirana1-1
07/11/25ABylis Vs FLA0-1
03/11/25HFLA Vs AF Elbasani0-1
29/10/25HFLA Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLD1.52
HomeWWDWD1.60
AwayWDDWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals1.982.001.96
Over 1.5 %62%64%60%
Over 2.5 %30%36%24%
Over 3.5 %16%12%20%
Scored1.061.081.04
Conceded0.920.920.92
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet40%40%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.78
HomeLDDLD1.96
AwayLWWLL1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%60%44%
AVG goals2.482.842.12
Over 1.5 %74%88%60%
Over 2.5 %48%60%36%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored1.561.881.24
Conceded0.920.960.88
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet40%36%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3968
49%
1.7
5342+11
2.4
67%
51%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.1
-
2Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3966
49%
1.7
5035+15
2.2
62%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.9
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3963
46%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
56%
28%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.10.8
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3952
33%
1.3
4538+7
2.1
69%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.0
-
5PartizaniPartizani3648
36%
1.3
3848-10
2.4
72%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3745
27%
1.2
3337-4
1.9
49%
27%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.91.0
-
7TiranaTirana3644
31%
1.2
3646-10
2.3
69%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.3
-
8VoraVora3642
28%
1.2
3940-1
2.2
64%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
9BylisBylis3641
28%
1.1
3850-12
2.4
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10FlamurtariFlamurtari3636
22%
1.0
3945-6
2.3
69%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11PogradeciPogradeci34
33%
1.3
31+2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.00.3
-
12Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë24
50%
2.0
20+2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.00.0
-
13Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
14Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.03.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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