The model favours a home win for AF Elbasani, with a 42% chance of victory, 30% for a draw and 28% for Partizani. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.2% probability. AF Elbasani, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.93 conceded, while Partizani, on the road, averages 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (96.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.7%), Under 4.5 (90.3%) and Home +2 handicap (88.6%). AF Elbasani come off a draw, while Partizani return from a defeat, setting the stage for a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AF Elbasani win
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partizani win
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Partizani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.2%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.2%
8.7%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.7%
3.9%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Partizani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
AF Elbasani is 0.41 points better than Partizani in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
AF Elbasani is 0.30 goals better than Partizani in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
AF Elbasani is 0.26 goals better than Partizani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AF Elbasani or Draw
72.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
30%
28%
covers AF Elbasani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani or Partizani
70.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
30%
28%
covers AF Elbasani + Partizani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Partizani
57.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
30%
28%
covers Draw + Partizani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5
Over
65.2%
Under
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AF Elbasani, so a minus line means AF Elbasani give that many goals of a start and Partizani receive them. At -1, AF Elbasani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AF Elbasani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani -2
7.5%
Draw -2
12.9%
Partizani +2
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani -1
20.4%
Draw -1
21.9%
Partizani +1
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani +1
72.1%
Draw +1
16.8%
Partizani -1
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani +2
88.9%
Draw +2
7.9%
Partizani -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
AF Elbasani and Partizani have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Partizani have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Partizani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Partizani have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
Skenderbeu Korce
Tirana