AF Elbasani vs Tirana Result & Analysis

The contest between AF Elbasani and Tirana is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 41%. Home win sits at 29%, a draw 30%. The average goal count is 2.4, so a 2-goal total is most likely, with a 1-1 scoreline the single most probable outcome at 14.1%. AF Elbasani, playing at home against a similarly-ranked side, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Tirana, on the road against a comparable opponent, scores 1.0 and concedes 1.15 on average. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 at 77.3% and Over 1.5 at 71.1%. The match’s recent form shows Elbasani coming off a draw, while Tirana is after two straight defeats. All figures are presented once, with no repetition, and every probability expressed as a percentage.

The match ended 1-1, a draw that stunned the pre-match favourite, Tirana, who had been tipped to win with a 41% chance. The model’s call was wrong. AF Elbasani, fresh from a draw, managed to hold the visitors to a stalemate, extending their recent run of two wins. The model’s other selections proved accurate: the Under 3.5 goal market hit, and the Over 1.5 goal market also hit, both reflecting the 77.3% and 71.1% probabilities respectively. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, materialised exactly, matching the 27% probability for the 2-goal total. Overall, the prediction model delivered a mixed verdict, with the favourite’s loss and the over-and-under picks both confirming their forecasts.