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AF Elbasani vs Tirana Result & Analysis

Date: 31/03/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Vs
36%
29%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AF Elbasani win✓ Hit
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tirana win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D12L11D11D20W00D00D11D10WH·LAC26/01A·TIR01/02H·EGN09/02A·BYL15/02A·VLL21/02H·PAR01/03H·SKE06/03A·TEU11/03H·DIN16/03A·LAC26/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.071.271.130.931.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.101.071.271.130.931.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TiranaTirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W11D11D10W12L14L41W00D11D22DA·BYL25/01H·AF 01/02A·PAR09/02H·SKE16/02A·TEU22/02H·DIN02/03H·LAC06/03H·VLL11/03A·EGN15/03H·BYL26/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.331.311.251.071.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.201.331.311.251.071.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
0-1
8.8%
2-1 ✓
8.2%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.2%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Tirana goals →
01234
09.4%8.8%6.2%2.6%0.8%
19.1%14%7.9%3.3%1.0%
26.6%8.2%5.0%2.1%0.6%
32.8%3.5%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.9%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Tirana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.66
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Partizani
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.45
AF Elbasani
1.39
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Bylis
1.17
Tirana
1.08
Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani is 0.31 points better than Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.47
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.34
Dinamo Tirana
1.34
Tirana
1.19
AF Elbasani
1.11
Partizani
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
0.97
Bylis
0.92
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.81
AF Elbasani is 0.08 goals worse than Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.79
Partizani
0.89
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.16
Teuta Durrës
1.17
Dinamo Tirana
1.18
Tirana
1.22
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25
Bylis
1.39
AF Elbasani is 0.17 goals better than Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L01L10W11D10W00D00D01L10WH·LAC26/01A·TIR01/02H·EGN09/02A·BYL15/02A·VLL21/02H·PAR01/03H·SKE06/03A·TEU11/03H·DIN16/03A·LAC26/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.570.330.670.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.400.570.330.670.470.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TiranaTirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W10W00D11D11D11D00D11D11DA·BYL25/01H·AF 01/02A·PAR09/02H·SKE16/02A·TEU22/02H·DIN02/03H·LAC06/03H·VLL11/03A·EGN15/03H·BYL26/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.440.560.570.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.530.440.560.570.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W11D01L00D10W00D00D10W00DH·LAC26/01A·TIR01/02H·EGN09/02A·BYL15/02A·VLL21/02H·PAR01/03H·SKE06/03A·TEU11/03H·DIN16/03A·LAC26/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.930.470.470.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.500.930.470.470.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TiranaTirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L01L10W01L03L30W00D00D11DA·BYL25/01H·AF 01/02A·PAR09/02H·SKE16/02A·TEU22/02H·DIN02/03H·LAC06/03H·VLL11/03A·EGN15/03H·BYL26/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.880.690.500.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.800.880.690.500.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
AF Elbasani and Tirana have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Tirana have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Tirana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Tirana have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
AE wins
3
Draws
0
TIR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani vs Tirana · H/A from AE
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/25ATirana Vs AE1-1
24/11/24HAE Vs Tirana1-1
16/09/24ATirana Vs AE1-1

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/03/25ALaci Vs AE0-1
16/03/25HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana1-1
11/03/25ATeuta Durrës Vs AE0-0
06/03/25HAE Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-0
01/03/25HAE Vs Partizani2-0
21/02/25AVllaznia Shkodër Vs AE1-1
15/02/25ABylis Vs AE1-1
09/02/25HAE Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-2
01/02/25ATirana Vs AE1-1
26/01/25HAE Vs Laci1-2

TiranaTirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/03/25HTIR Vs Bylis2-2
15/03/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR1-1
11/03/25HTIR Vs Vllaznia Shkodër0-0
06/03/25HTIR Vs Laci4-1
02/03/25HTIR Vs Dinamo Tirana1-4
22/02/25ATeuta Durrës Vs TIR2-1
16/02/25HTIR Vs Skenderbeu Korce1-0
09/02/25APartizani Vs TIR1-1
01/02/25HTIR Vs AF Elbasani1-1
25/01/25ABylis Vs TIR0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDW1.74
HomeLLWDD1.92
AwayDDDDW1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%33%
AVG goals2.622.772.46
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.621.811.42
Conceded1.000.961.04
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDD1.08
HomeWLWDD1.19
AwayLWDLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%23%17%
AVG goals2.522.582.46
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %30%31%29%
Scored1.221.271.17
Conceded1.301.311.29
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet30%31%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3863
45%
1.7
5130+21
2.1
74%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.8
-
2Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3860
42%
1.6
5644+12
2.6
79%
55%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.51.2
-
3PartizaniPartizani3857
37%
1.5
4034+6
1.9
68%
26%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.10.9
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3855
37%
1.4
5145+6
2.5
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.31.2
-
5AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3650
31%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3644
28%
1.2
2942-13
2.0
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.81.2
-
7BylisBylis3642
31%
1.2
3350-17
2.3
64%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
8TiranaTirana3639
19%
1.1
4344-1
2.4
72%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.2
-
9Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3638
25%
1.1
3545-10
2.2
69%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
10LaciLaci3637
22%
1.0
3137-6
1.9
58%
33%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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