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AF Elbasani vs Tirana Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-3
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Vs
51%
30%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

A tight, low-scoring encounter is expected as the defensive figures dominate the opening narrative. AF Elbasani, coming off a draw, has been solid at home, conceding only 0.64 goals per game against similar opposition while scoring 1.43. Tirana, after a 0-3 defeat, has struggled away, conceding 1.43 and scoring 1.14 against comparable teams. The model picks a home win with a 51% chance, a draw 30% and an away win 19%. The average goal output is 2.2, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for AF Elbasani, with a 14.3% probability. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 81.6%. The match is projected to be a defensive duel, with the home side’s advantage and Tirana’s recent form making a 1-0 result the most credible outcome.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Tirana, the pre-match favourite with a 51% chance of victory, fell short, losing 1-3. The model’s call for a home win was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The match also saw the model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, miss its target, despite an 81.6% probability. AF Elbasani entered the game on a draw-heavy run, their last five results reading DWWLL, while Tirana came off a defeat but had a strong streak of LWWWW. The final score of 1-3 confirms the model’s prediction was inaccurate on both the outcome and the goal total.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AF Elbasani win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tirana win✓ Hit
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W21W00D14L30W21W31W24L12LH·BYL28/02A·TIR08/03A·FLA14/03H·EGN20/03A·DIN04/04H·PAR13/04A·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.101.430.641.441.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.431.101.430.641.441.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TiranaTirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L10W30W11D31W11D21W10W10WA·VLL27/02H·AF 08/03H·BYL14/03H·VOR22/03A·FLA03/04H·EGN12/04A·DIN18/04H·PAR25/04A·TEU02/05H·VLL06/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.230.881.061.141.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.001.230.881.061.141.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.2%
Under 2.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.3%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.8%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Tirana goals →
01234
012%7.4%3.4%0.9%0.2%
114%13%4.8%1.3%0.3%
211%8.8%3.5%0.9%0.2%
35.3%4.2%1.7%0.4%0.1%
41.9%1.5%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Tirana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pogradeci
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Besa Kavajë
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 0.52 points better than Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Pogradeci
1.33
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Flamurtari
1.08
Vora
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 0.36 goals better than Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.33
Besa Kavajë
0.50
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
AF Elbasani is 0.20 goals better than Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W00D11D00D01L20W01L00DH·BYL28/02A·TIR08/03A·FLA14/03H·EGN20/03A·DIN04/04H·PAR13/04A·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.300.500.070.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.300.500.070.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TiranaTirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L00D10W10W10W00D01L00D10WA·VLL27/02H·AF 08/03H·BYL14/03H·VOR22/03A·FLA03/04H·EGN12/04A·DIN18/04H·PAR25/04A·TEU02/05H·VLL06/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.670.310.620.570.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.430.670.310.620.570.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D00D03L30W20W11D23L12LH·BYL28/02A·TIR08/03A·FLA14/03H·EGN20/03A·DIN04/04H·PAR13/04A·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.800.930.570.941.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.930.800.930.570.941.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TiranaTirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D10W20W01L21W11D20W10W00DA·VLL27/02H·AF 08/03H·BYL14/03H·VOR22/03A·FLA03/04H·EGN12/04A·DIN18/04H·PAR25/04A·TEU02/05H·VLL06/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.560.440.570.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.570.570.560.440.570.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (29)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (11)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
AE wins
4
Draws
0
TIR wins

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani vs Tirana · H/A from AE
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26ATirana Vs AE0-1
24/12/25HAE Vs Tirana1-1
29/10/25ATirana Vs AE1-4
31/03/25HAE Vs Tirana2-1
01/02/25ATirana Vs AE1-1
24/11/24HAE Vs Tirana1-1
16/09/24ATirana Vs AE1-1

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26ABylis Vs AE2-1
02/05/26AVora Vs AE4-2
27/04/26HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër3-1
18/04/26ATeuta Durrës Vs AE1-2
13/04/26HAE Vs Partizani3-0
04/04/26ADinamo Tirana Vs AE4-1
20/03/26HAE Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-0
14/03/26AFlamurtari Vs AE1-2
08/03/26ATirana Vs AE0-1
28/02/26HAE Vs Bylis1-1

TiranaTirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HTIR Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-0
02/05/26ATeuta Durrës Vs TIR0-1
25/04/26HTIR Vs Partizani2-1
18/04/26ADinamo Tirana Vs TIR1-1
12/04/26HTIR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë3-1
03/04/26AFlamurtari Vs TIR1-1
22/03/26HTIR Vs Vora3-0
14/03/26HTIR Vs Bylis1-0
08/03/26HTIR Vs AF Elbasani0-1
27/02/26AVllaznia Shkodër Vs TIR3-1

📊 15. Overall Statistics

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.68
HomeWDDWW1.92
AwayWLWLL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals2.181.882.48
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %40%36%44%
Over 3.5 %14%4%24%
Scored1.241.241.24
Conceded0.940.641.24
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet38%48%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.24
HomeWWWWW1.31
AwayLLDDW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals2.322.192.46
Over 1.5 %72%62%83%
Over 2.5 %34%35%33%
Over 3.5 %18%19%17%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.221.121.33
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet30%31%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3968
49%
1.7
5342+11
2.4
67%
51%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
2Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3966
49%
1.7
5035+15
2.2
62%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.9
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3963
46%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
56%
28%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3952
33%
1.3
4538+7
2.1
69%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
5PartizaniPartizani3648
36%
1.3
3848-10
2.4
72%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3745
27%
1.2
3337-4
1.9
49%
27%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.0
-
7TiranaTirana3644
31%
1.2
3646-10
2.3
69%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
8VoraVora3642
28%
1.2
3940-1
2.2
64%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
9BylisBylis3641
28%
1.1
3850-12
2.4
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10FlamurtariFlamurtari3636
22%
1.0
3945-6
2.3
69%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11PogradeciPogradeci36
67%
2.0
41+3
1.7
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.3
-
12Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë23
50%
1.5
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
-
13Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
14Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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