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AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkodër Result & Analysis

Date: 08/12/2024
Time: 15:30
Final 1-2
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Vs
38%
31%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AF Elbasani win✗ Miss
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D11D11D00D05L11D11D13L31WA·BYL29/09A·VLL06/10H·PAR20/10H·SKE26/10A·TEU31/10H·DIN04/11A·LAC10/11H·TIR24/11A·EGN30/11H·BYL04/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.002.070.871.601.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.151.051.331.001.001.09
vs Weaker (10)3.200.903.170.673.251.25
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L00D13L22D43W20W11D21W01L23LA·DIN28/09H·AF 06/10A·LAC19/10H·PAR26/10A·TIR30/10H·SKE03/11A·EGN09/11H·TEU23/11A·BYL29/11H·DIN04/12
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.331.461.620.941.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.211.321.501.671.001.06
vs Weaker (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.3%
1-2 ✓
7.2%
0-2
5.9%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Vllaznia Shkodër goals →
01234
011%9.6%5.9%2.2%0.6%
111%15%7.2%2.6%0.7%
27.3%8.0%4.4%1.6%0.4%
33.0%3.2%1.8%0.6%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.66
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Partizani
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.45
AF Elbasani
1.39
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Bylis
1.17
Tirana
1.08
Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani is 0.19 points worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.47
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.34
Dinamo Tirana
1.34
Tirana
1.19
AF Elbasani
1.11
Partizani
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
0.97
Bylis
0.92
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.81
AF Elbasani is 0.36 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.79
Partizani
0.89
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.16
Teuta Durrës
1.17
Dinamo Tirana
1.18
Tirana
1.22
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25
Bylis
1.39
AF Elbasani is 0.10 goals better than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.16).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D11D00D03L01L00D11D01LA·BYL29/09A·VLL06/10H·PAR20/10H·SKE26/10A·TEU31/10H·DIN04/11A·LAC10/11H·TIR24/11A·EGN30/11H·BYL04/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.500.930.530.670.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.400.650.440.670.360.64
vs Weaker (10)1.600.201.670.331.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D11D11D30W20W01L10W01L02LA·DIN28/09H·AF 06/10A·LAC19/10H·PAR26/10A·TIR30/10H·SKE03/11A·EGN09/11H·TEU23/11A·BYL29/11H·DIN04/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.690.850.590.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.640.610.670.830.620.44
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D00D00D02L10W11D02L30WA·BYL29/09A·VLL06/10H·PAR20/10H·SKE26/10A·TEU31/10H·DIN04/11A·LAC10/11H·TIR24/11A·EGN30/11H·BYL04/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.501.130.330.930.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.750.400.890.330.640.45
vs Weaker (10)1.600.701.500.331.751.25
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D02L11D13L00D10W11D00D21WA·DIN28/09H·AF 06/10A·LAC19/10H·PAR26/10A·TIR30/10H·SKE03/11A·EGN09/11H·TEU23/11A·BYL29/11H·DIN04/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.770.770.350.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.570.710.830.830.380.62
vs Weaker (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
AF Elbasani and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani's attack is €1m more valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
AE wins
1
Draws
0
VS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkodër · H/A from AE
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/24AVllaznia Shkodër Vs AE0-0

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/12/24HAE Vs Bylis3-1
30/11/24AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs AE3-1
24/11/24HAE Vs Tirana1-1
10/11/24ALaci Vs AE1-1
04/11/24HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana0-5
31/10/24ATeuta Durrës Vs AE0-0
26/10/24HAE Vs Skenderbeu Korce1-1
20/10/24HAE Vs Partizani1-1
06/10/24AVllaznia Shkodër Vs AE0-0
29/09/24ABylis Vs AE0-1

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/12/24HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana2-3
29/11/24ABylis Vs VS1-0
23/11/24HVS Vs Teuta Durrës2-1
09/11/24AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs VS1-1
03/11/24HVS Vs Skenderbeu Korce2-0
30/10/24ATirana Vs VS3-4
26/10/24HVS Vs Partizani2-2
19/10/24ALaci Vs VS3-1
06/10/24HVS Vs AF Elbasani0-0
28/09/24ADinamo Tirana Vs VS2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW2.04
HomeDDLDW2.40
AwayWDDDL1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%72%42%
AVG goals2.883.202.54
Over 1.5 %78%88%67%
Over 2.5 %53%60%46%
Over 3.5 %39%44%33%
Scored1.882.241.50
Conceded1.000.961.04
BTTS59%56%62%
Clean Sheet39%40%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.56
HomeDDWWL1.74
AwayLLWDL1.41
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%37%
AVG goals2.382.832.00
Over 1.5 %62%78%48%
Over 2.5 %42%57%30%
Over 3.5 %28%39%19%
Scored1.241.610.93
Conceded1.141.221.07
BTTS48%61%37%
Clean Sheet38%30%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3863
45%
1.7
5130+21
2.1
74%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.8
-
2Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3860
42%
1.6
5644+12
2.6
79%
55%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.51.2
-
3PartizaniPartizani3857
37%
1.5
4034+6
1.9
68%
26%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.10.9
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3855
37%
1.4
5145+6
2.5
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.31.2
-
5AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3650
31%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3644
28%
1.2
2942-13
2.0
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.81.2
-
7BylisBylis3642
31%
1.2
3350-17
2.3
64%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
8TiranaTirana3639
19%
1.1
4344-1
2.4
72%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.2
-
9Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3638
25%
1.1
3545-10
2.2
69%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
10LaciLaci3637
22%
1.0
3137-6
1.9
58%
33%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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