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AF Elbasani vs Vora Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/10/2026
Time: 15:00
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Vs
43%
31%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vora
Vora
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

AF Elbasani’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding fewer than a goal per match, while Vora’s away defence has been less reliable, allowing just over one goal on average. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 43% chance of victory, a 31% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.2, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 14.4% chance.

AF Elbasani’s recent form shows a draw streak and a 1-1 result against Vllaznia Shkodër, while Vora comes off a two-game winning run, beating Dinamo Tirana 1-0. Against similar-strength opponents, Elbasani averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.93 conceded; Vora averages 0.93 scored and 1.2 conceded.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.1%), Under 4.5 (92.7%) and Home +2 handicap (90.4%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AF Elbasani win
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vora win
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W31W24L12L13L04L30W21W11D11DA·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05A·VLL31/05A·LAC22/08H·VLL29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.271.400.931.401.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.401.271.400.931.401.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Vora) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VoraVora

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L10W11D00D20W42W22D52W10W13LA·TIR22/03H·TEU05/04A·FLA11/04H·VLL18/04A·EGN26/04H·AF 02/05A·DIN06/05H·BYL10/05A·DIN23/08H·EGN31/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.131.331.070.931.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.131.131.331.070.931.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
65.9%
Under 1.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.9%
No
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
12.8%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.7%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Vora goals →
01234
012%8.9%4.7%1.5%0.3%
113%14%6.1%1.9%0.4%
29.0%8.3%3.9%1.2%0.3%
33.8%3.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%
41.2%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Vora goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
AF Elbasani is 0.58 points better than Vora in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
AF Elbasani is 0.28 goals better than Vora in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
AF Elbasani is 0.03 goals better than Vora in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AF Elbasani or Draw
74.3%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers AF Elbasani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani or Vora
68.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers AF Elbasani + Vora
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vora
56.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers Draw + Vora
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 0.5
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 1.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to AF Elbasani, so a minus line means AF Elbasani give that many goals of a start and Vora receive them. At -1, AF Elbasani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AF Elbasani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani -2
7.1%
Draw -2
13.1%
Vora +2
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani -1
20.2%
Draw -1
23.0%
Vora +1
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani +1
74.3%
Draw +1
16.3%
Vora -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AF Elbasani)
AF Elbasani +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.9%
Vora -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W01L00D01L03L30W00D00D01LA·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05A·VLL31/05A·LAC22/08H·VLL29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.530.400.400.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.430.530.400.400.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Vora) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VoraVora

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W11D00D20W10W02L11D10W00DA·TIR22/03H·TEU05/04A·FLA11/04H·VLL18/04A·EGN26/04H·AF 02/05A·DIN06/05H·BYL10/05A·DIN23/08H·EGN31/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.370.470.200.670.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.570.370.470.200.670.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D23L12L12L01L00D21W11D10WA·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05A·VLL31/05A·LAC22/08H·VLL29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.830.870.531.001.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.930.830.870.531.001.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vora) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VoraVora

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D00D00D00D32W20W41W00D13LA·TIR22/03H·TEU05/04A·FLA11/04H·VLL18/04A·EGN26/04H·AF 02/05A·DIN06/05H·BYL10/05A·DIN23/08H·EGN31/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.870.870.270.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.570.770.870.870.270.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vora over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.5%-------
Under 5.597.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals93.3%-------
Under 4.592.7%-------
Home +2 handicap90.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals86.2%-------
Under 3.581.9%-------
Away +2 handicap79.8%-------
Away under 1.5 goals76.3%-------
Home or Draw74.3%-------
Home +1 handicap74.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals72.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
AF Elbasani's squad is €2m more valuable than Vora's (€5m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Vora have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Vora have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
AF Elbasani and Vora have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
AE wins
1
Draws
2
VOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani vs Vora · H/A from AE
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26AVora Vs AE4-2
21/02/26HAE Vs Vora2-1
13/12/25AVora Vs AE0-1
19/10/25HAE Vs Vora1-2
29/04/24HAE Vs Vora2-0
27/11/23AVora Vs AE1-1
14/09/23HAE Vs Vora3-2

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-1
22/08/26ALaci Vs AE1-1
31/05/26AVllaznia Shkodër Vs AE1-2
24/05/26HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana3-0
17/05/26HAE Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-4
10/05/26HAE Vs Tirana1-3
06/05/26ABylis Vs AE2-1
02/05/26AVora Vs AE4-2
27/04/26HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër3-1
18/04/26ATeuta Durrës Vs AE1-2

VoraVora

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26HVOR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-3
23/08/26ADinamo Tirana Vs VOR0-1
10/05/26HVOR Vs Bylis5-2
06/05/26ADinamo Tirana Vs VOR2-2
02/05/26HVOR Vs AF Elbasani4-2
26/04/26AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs VOR0-2
18/04/26HVOR Vs Vllaznia Shkodër0-0
11/04/26AFlamurtari Vs VOR1-1
05/04/26HVOR Vs Teuta Durrës1-0
22/03/26ATirana Vs VOR3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.72
HomeWLLWD1.88
AwayWLLWD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.262.002.54
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %18%12%25%
Scored1.261.231.29
Conceded1.000.771.25
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet38%46%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Vora
Vora
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.40
HomeWDWWL1.58
AwayLDWDW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.182.461.88
Over 1.5 %58%58%58%
Over 2.5 %30%35%25%
Over 3.5 %18%31%4%
Scored1.181.500.83
Conceded1.000.961.04
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë26
100%
3.0
61+5
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2133.00.5
-
2Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.50.5
-
3LaciLaci24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana23
50%
1.5
11+0
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.50.5
-
5VoraVora23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.5
-
6Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër22
0%
1.0
33+0
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.51.5
-
7AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.0
-
8Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.5
-
9PartizaniPartizani21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.51.0
-
10TiranaTirana20
0%
0.0
16-5
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.53.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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