This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.10
1.38
1.25
1.14
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.05
1.45
1.27
1.11
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.95-2.2%
Under 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.84+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.0%
0-0
9.3%
1-0
9.1%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
AFC Wimbledon goals ↓
Burton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.5%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.1%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.3%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AFC Wimbledon goals (down), columns = Burton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wigan
2.00
Rotherham
1.96
Milton Keynes Dons
1.93
Sheffield Weds
1.85
Sunderland
1.83
Wycombe
1.80
Plymouth
1.74
Oxford
1.65
Portsmouth
1.59
Bolton
1.59
Ipswich
1.52
Accrington
1.33
Charlton
1.28
Cambridge
1.26
Cheltenham
1.22
Burton
1.15
Lincoln
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.09
Morecambe
0.91
Gillingham
0.87
Fleetwood Town
0.87
Doncaster
0.83
AFC Wimbledon
0.80
Crewe
0.63
AFC Wimbledon is 0.35 points worse than Burton in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oxford
1.78
Wigan
1.78
Sunderland
1.72
Sheffield Weds
1.70
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Wycombe
1.63
Bolton
1.61
Rotherham
1.52
Portsmouth
1.48
Plymouth
1.48
Ipswich
1.46
Cheltenham
1.43
Fleetwood Town
1.35
Accrington
1.33
Morecambe
1.24
Cambridge
1.22
Lincoln
1.20
Charlton
1.20
Burton
1.11
AFC Wimbledon
1.07
Shrewsbury
1.02
Crewe
0.80
Doncaster
0.80
Gillingham
0.76
AFC Wimbledon is 0.04 goals worse than Burton in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rotherham
0.72
Wigan
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Ipswich
1.00
Plymouth
1.04
Sheffield Weds
1.09
Portsmouth
1.11
Shrewsbury
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Sunderland
1.15
Bolton
1.24
Oxford
1.28
Charlton
1.28
Lincoln
1.37
Burton
1.46
Gillingham
1.50
Cambridge
1.61
AFC Wimbledon
1.63
Accrington
1.74
Cheltenham
1.74
Doncaster
1.78
Fleetwood Town
1.78
Crewe
1.80
Morecambe
1.91
AFC Wimbledon is 0.17 goals worse than Burton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Milton Keynes Dons
59%
Bolton
57%
Sunderland
56%
Oxford
55%
Wigan
55%
Sheffield Weds
54%
Lincoln
53%
Plymouth
52%
Portsmouth
52%
Crewe
52%
Rotherham
51%
Charlton
50%
Accrington
50%
Cheltenham
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Burton
46%
Wycombe
45%
Doncaster
45%
Cambridge
44%
Morecambe
43%
Shrewsbury
43%
Gillingham
38%
AFC Wimbledon is 1.8 percentage points better than Burton in terms of average possession (47% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
For 4.2 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
For 5.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 8.8 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AFC Wimbledon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
10.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Stronger (26)
10.0
9.7
10.3
2.8
2.9
2.7
23.0
22.6
23.5
vs Similar (21)
9.0
8.2
9.6
2.5
3.1
2.0
23.0
23.3
22.8
vs Weaker (3)
11.3
15.0
9.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
21.3
21.0
21.5
% over line
48%
42%
54%
36%
42%
31%
62%
58%
65%
% under line
52%
58%
46%
64%
58%
69%
38%
42%
35%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.0
10.0
3.1
3.4
2.7
24.2
25.2
23.0
vs Stronger (16)
10.2
10.7
9.6
4.0
4.6
3.3
23.7
24.2
23.0
vs Similar (32)
10.7
11.1
10.3
2.7
2.9
2.3
24.4
25.7
22.9
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
12.0
7.0
3.5
2.0
5.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
% over line
68%
74%
61%
38%
44%
30%
76%
78%
74%
% under line
32%
26%
39%
62%
56%
70%
24%
22%
26%
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Accrington
11.5
Oxford
10.7
Morecambe
10.7
Plymouth
10.6
Lincoln
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Doncaster
10.5
Burton
10.5
Rotherham
10.5
Gillingham
10.4
Wycombe
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Sunderland
10.1
Portsmouth
9.9
Crewe
9.9
Bolton
9.9
Charlton
9.8
Cambridge
9.7
Sheffield Weds
9.6
AFC Wimbledon
9.6
Ipswich
9.5
Cheltenham
9.1
Shrewsbury
9.1
Milton Keynes Dons
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Charlton
3.9
Lincoln
3.6
Accrington
3.6
Portsmouth
3.5
Ipswich
3.4
Oxford
3.4
Sunderland
3.3
Fleetwood Town
3.3
Milton Keynes Dons
3.3
Crewe
3.3
Plymouth
3.3
Shrewsbury
3.3
Sheffield Weds
3.2
Gillingham
3.2
Wigan
3.2
Wycombe
3.2
Burton
3.1
Morecambe
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
Bolton
3.0
Rotherham
3.0
Doncaster
2.8
AFC Wimbledon
2.8
Cheltenham
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Portsmouth
26.9
Charlton
26.9
Sunderland
26.3
Oxford
26.3
Gillingham
26.1
Wigan
26.1
Wycombe
25.6
Rotherham
25.5
Shrewsbury
25.5
Accrington
25.4
Bolton
24.9
Milton Keynes Dons
24.8
Ipswich
24.8
Lincoln
24.8
Cambridge
24.2
Burton
24.2
Doncaster
23.9
Fleetwood Town
23.9
Crewe
23.5
Sheffield Weds
23.4
Morecambe
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Plymouth
22.5
Cheltenham
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.5%
Under 9.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.7%
Under 21.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.69
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.73
0.56
1.11
0.00
0.17
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.50
0.00
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.31
0.69
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.50
0.27
0.73
0.67
0.22
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.80
1.06
0.69
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
0.60
1.11
0.56
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
3.00
2.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.06
0.56
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.55
1.18
0.55
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AFC Wimbledon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Maycock25%
J. Stockley20%
Myles Hippolyte20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Myles Hippolyte40%
A. Yiadom33%
Ryan Johnson25%
A. Smith20%
D. Sweeney20%
Steven Sessegnon20%
Steve Seddon20%
Z. Nelson20%
C. Maycock0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
J. Tilley0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Ogundere33%
J. Tilley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Z. Nelson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Stockley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
Burton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
G. Evans25%
Kgagelo Chauke25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
J. Armer50%
Sulyman Krubally50%
G. Evans25%
Kyran Lofthouse25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Zac Scutt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse50%
J. Armer25%
Sulyman Krubally25%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Finn Delap0%
Zac Scutt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (30)
€392m
IPS (31)
€280m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
WIG (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
MOR (1)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon and Burton have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon and Burton have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (6)
€110m
IPS (7)
€66m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon and Burton have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (15)
€125m
IPS (13)
€85m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
MOR (0)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon and Burton have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League One 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Wigan
Rotherham
Milton Keynes Dons
Sheffield Weds
Sunderland
Wycombe
Plymouth
Oxford
Bolton
Portsmouth
Ipswich
Accrington
Charlton
Cambridge
Cheltenham
Lincoln
Shrewsbury
Morecambe
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Doncaster
Crewe