AFC Wimbledon's recent struggles at home, following two straight defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Huddersfield, set the tone for this match. However, Reading's away form is equally concerning, having also suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 3-4 loss to Luton.
The model predicts an away win for Reading, with a 45% chance of victory. The probabilities for a home win and draw are 27% and 29% respectively. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.6%. Reading's away scoring and conceding averages are 1.33 goals, while AFC Wimbledon's home scoring and conceding averages are 1 goal each, both against similar opponents.
The model suggests an Under 3.5 goals selection with a 74.6% probability, and an Over 1.5 goals selection with a 73.6% probability. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 45%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Reading, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that extended both sides’ recent draws. The model had tipped an away win with a 47 % probability, but that call was wrong. The total-goals prediction of 3.0 was also off, yet the model’s selections on goal totals were spot on: Under 7.5 (99.5 %) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %) hit, Under 6.5 (98.4 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (97.5 %) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3 %) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.7 %) hit, Under 5.5 (95.4 %) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.5 %) hit. All eight picks were successful, underscoring the model’s strength in predicting low-scoring outcomes even when the favourite faltered.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AFC Wimbledon win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.63
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
Pinnacle
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Marathonbet
2.66
1xBet
2.66
Draw✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.27
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.46
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.35
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Reading win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.58
Edge
+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.66
Unibet
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
888Sport
2.63
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
1.00
1.56
0.93
1.79
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
2.33
1.00
2.57
1.00
2.12
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.00
1.00
0.78
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.86
1.57
1.31
1.31
vs Stronger (7)
2.43
1.71
2.00
1.80
3.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.35
1.78
1.44
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.6%
@ 1.32+11.0%
Under 1.5
18.4%
@ 3.16-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.39
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
@ 2.01+11.7%
Under 2.5
41.6%
@ 1.76-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.08
Pinnacle
2.07
Betfair
2.05
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
@ 3.44+9.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
@ 1.27-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.66
10Bet
3.55
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.9%
@ 1.76+8.1%
No
39.1%
@ 1.97-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
No
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 5.87+4.3%
1-2
9.4%@ 9.07+4.5%
0-1
7.3%@ 7.63+1.5%
0-2
7.3%@ 11.76+3.5%
2-1
7.0%@ 9.18+2.2%
2-2
6.1%@ 13.27+2.7%
0-0 ✓
5.9%@ 8.64+0.8%
1-3
5.5%@ 20.16+3.3%
AFC Wimbledon goals ↓
Reading goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.3%
7.3%
4.2%
1.8%
1
5.2%
12%
9.4%
5.5%
2.4%
2
4.0%
7.0%
6.1%
3.5%
1.5%
3
1.7%
3.0%
2.6%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AFC Wimbledon goals (down), columns = Reading goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
AFC Wimbledon is 0.22 points worse than Reading in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
AFC Wimbledon is 0.28 goals worse than Reading in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
AFC Wimbledon is 0.26 goals worse than Reading in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
AFC Wimbledon is 3.8 percentage points worse than Reading in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
For 5.7 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Reading
For 4.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AFC Wimbledon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.5
3.1
3.0
3.2
23.1
23.3
22.8
vs Stronger (24)
9.4
8.8
9.9
3.1
2.5
3.7
22.9
23.3
22.4
vs Similar (25)
10.1
11.2
9.2
3.2
3.8
2.7
23.2
23.2
23.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
54%
44%
44%
44%
44%
65%
75%
56%
% under line
51%
46%
56%
56%
56%
56%
35%
25%
44%
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.4
3.5
3.3
3.6
22.5
21.0
23.8
vs Stronger (11)
8.3
6.8
9.5
3.6
3.2
4.0
22.6
21.2
23.8
vs Similar (38)
9.5
9.6
9.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.4
21.0
23.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
33%
40%
48%
40%
56%
59%
54%
64%
% under line
63%
67%
60%
52%
60%
44%
41%
46%
36%
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Leicester
11.0
Barnsley
10.9
Wigan
10.7
Blackpool
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Luton
10.3
Burton
10.3
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.1
Stevenage
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.3
Peterboro
4.3
Huddersfield
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Stevenage
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.6
Notts County
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Huddersfield
24.3
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Blackpool
23.5
Wigan
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Cambridge
22.6
Reading
22.6
Mansfield
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Burton
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
21.0
Barnsley
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.3%
@ 1.77+1.7%
Under 9.5
45.7%
@ 1.97-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.82
Betfair
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Under
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.7%
Under 21.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AFC Wimbledon or Draw✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.45
Edge
-9.1%
27%
26%
47%
covers AFC Wimbledon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
Superbet
1.45
AFC Wimbledon or Reading✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.0%
27%
26%
47%
covers AFC Wimbledon + Reading
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw or Reading✓ Hit
73.3%
Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.45
Edge
+9.1%
27%
26%
47%
covers Draw + Reading
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.2%
@ 1.31-4.8%
Under
33.8%
@ 3.20+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
888Sport
3.25
Superbet
3.20
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.5%
@ 2.54-7.2%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.47+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betfair
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
1xBet
2.58
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 6.01-5.9%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.10+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
6.05
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.10
AFC Wimbledon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 14.81-4.0%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Reading over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.0%
@ 1.30+5.7%
Under
23.0%
@ 3.23-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.42
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Reading over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.2%
@ 2.51+6.2%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.48-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
888Sport
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Reading over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 5.95+2.7%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.10-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Reading over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 15.75+0.1%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.02-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AFC Wimbledon, so a minus line means AFC Wimbledon give that many goals of a start and Reading receive them. At -1, AFC Wimbledon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AFC Wimbledon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: Reading
AFC Wimbledon -2
3.2%
@ 11.24-4.7%
Draw -2
7.5%
@ 7.07-5.0%
Reading +2
89.3%
@ 1.11+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: Reading
AFC Wimbledon -1
10.7%
@ 5.30-6.2%
Draw -1
15.9%
@ 4.14-5.7%
Reading +1
73.3%
@ 1.46+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon +1
55.2%
@ 1.45-6.0%
Draw +1
22.1%
@ 4.11+0.4%
Reading -1
22.7%
@ 5.17+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Handicap +2 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon +2
77.3%
@ 1.12-1.8%
Draw +2
13.9%
@ 6.88+1.0%
Reading -2
8.9%
@ 10.99+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.95
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.93
0.43
0.71
0.50
1.12
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.40
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
1.07
0.43
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
0.43
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.39
0.89
0.44
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.4%
@ 1.40+3.1%
Under 0.5
30.6%
@ 2.76-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.8%
@ 2.88-0.4%
Under 1.5
68.2%
@ 1.37+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 7.45-0.3%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.06+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.2%
@ 2.14-3.3%
Under
59.8%
@ 1.64+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 6.80-3.4%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.07+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 19.50-3.6%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Reading over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.4%
@ 2.12+4.7%
Under
51.6%
@ 1.65-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Reading over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 6.70-0.4%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.07+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Reading over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 20.50-1.3%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.40
0.57
1.86
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.03
0.79
1.14
0.69
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.29
0.60
1.40
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.96
0.89
1.00
0.57
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.4%
Under 1.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.3%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.4%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
1.32
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+11.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.3%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
888Sport
1.30
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
73.3%
1.45
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.3%
1.46
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.5%
1.30
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
-0.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
70.5%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
+7.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AFC Wimbledon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Maycock25%
J. Stockley20%
Myles Hippolyte20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Myles Hippolyte40%
A. Yiadom33%
Ryan Johnson25%
A. Smith20%
D. Sweeney20%
Steven Sessegnon20%
Steve Seddon20%
Z. Nelson20%
C. Maycock0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
J. Tilley0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Ogundere33%
J. Tilley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Z. Nelson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Stockley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
Reading
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Brown50%
J. Marriott33%
George Earthy33%
R. Williams25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
C. Savage0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Rinomhota33%
P. O'Connor33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Joel Pereira25%
R. Williams25%
C. Savage25%
Benn Ward25%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
J. Brown0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
P. Lane0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
L. Wing33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Kyreece Lisbie33%
R. Williams25%
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Benn Ward0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
R. Williams0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
AFC Wimbledon's squad is €4m less valuable than Reading's (€5m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
AFC Wimbledon and Reading have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
AFC Wimbledon's midfield is €2m less valuable than Reading's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
AFC Wimbledon's defence is €2m less valuable than Reading's (€2m vs €4m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe