AFC Wimbledon are tipped to win, a 50% chance that outweighs the 27% draw and 22% away win odds. The model expects 2.6 goals in total, with a 26% chance that the match will see exactly two goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% probability that reflects the balanced nature of the contest. Wimbledon’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against stronger opposition, while Sheffield Weds, playing away against weaker teams, average 1.0 goal scored and only 0.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 96.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 90.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 84.4%, Under 3.5 cards at 78.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.8% (miss), and Under 23.5 fouls at 72.5% (miss). The match should stay low-card and low-foul, with a modest goal output.
Results analysis
A surprising 2-2 draw saw the pre-match favourite, Home win, fail to deliver, with the model’s call proving wrong. The match finished in a stalemate, extending both sides’ recent runs with a win for each. The model had predicted a home triumph with a 50% chance, but the result was a draw. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 5.5 cards hit at 96.5%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 90.6%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 84.4%, Under 3.5 cards hit at 78.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 74.2%, Under 3.5 missed at 73.8%, and Under 23.5 fouls missed at 72.5%. The game’s final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely 2-0 scenario, yet the outcome was a draw, underscoring the unpredictability of League One fixtures.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AFC Wimbledon winâś— Miss
50.5%
Avg Implied 32.2% · @ 2.92
Edge
+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.18
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds winâś— Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.45
Edge
-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.30
1.53
1.35
1.23
1.23
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.33
1.67
1.67
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.00
1.14
0.71
1.50
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
3.00
3.00
3.00
4.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield Weds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.20
0.80
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.35
1.40
0.70
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.16+4.3%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.67-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.8%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.1%
AFC Wimbledon goals ↓
Sheffield Weds goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.2%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.5%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.1%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AFC Wimbledon goals (down), columns = Sheffield Weds goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wigan
2.00
Rotherham
1.96
Milton Keynes Dons
1.93
Sheffield Weds
1.85
Sunderland
1.83
Wycombe
1.80
Plymouth
1.74
Oxford
1.65
Portsmouth
1.59
Bolton
1.59
Ipswich
1.52
Accrington
1.33
Charlton
1.28
Cambridge
1.26
Cheltenham
1.22
Burton
1.15
Lincoln
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.09
Morecambe
0.91
Gillingham
0.87
Fleetwood Town
0.87
Doncaster
0.83
AFC Wimbledon
0.80
Crewe
0.63
AFC Wimbledon is 1.04 points worse than Sheffield Weds in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oxford
1.78
Wigan
1.78
Sunderland
1.72
Sheffield Weds
1.70
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Wycombe
1.63
Bolton
1.61
Rotherham
1.52
Portsmouth
1.48
Plymouth
1.48
Ipswich
1.46
Cheltenham
1.43
Fleetwood Town
1.35
Accrington
1.33
Morecambe
1.24
Cambridge
1.22
Lincoln
1.20
Charlton
1.20
Burton
1.11
AFC Wimbledon
1.07
Shrewsbury
1.02
Crewe
0.80
Doncaster
0.80
Gillingham
0.76
AFC Wimbledon is 0.63 goals worse than Sheffield Weds in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rotherham
0.72
Wigan
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Ipswich
1.00
Plymouth
1.04
Sheffield Weds
1.09
Portsmouth
1.11
Shrewsbury
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Sunderland
1.15
Bolton
1.24
Oxford
1.28
Charlton
1.28
Lincoln
1.37
Burton
1.46
Gillingham
1.50
Cambridge
1.61
AFC Wimbledon
1.63
Accrington
1.74
Cheltenham
1.74
Doncaster
1.78
Fleetwood Town
1.78
Crewe
1.80
Morecambe
1.91
AFC Wimbledon is 0.54 goals worse than Sheffield Weds in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Milton Keynes Dons
59%
Bolton
57%
Sunderland
56%
Oxford
55%
Wigan
55%
Sheffield Weds
54%
Lincoln
53%
Plymouth
52%
Portsmouth
52%
Crewe
52%
Rotherham
51%
Charlton
50%
Accrington
50%
Cheltenham
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Burton
46%
Wycombe
45%
Doncaster
45%
Cambridge
44%
Morecambe
43%
Shrewsbury
43%
Gillingham
38%
AFC Wimbledon is 6.7 percentage points worse than Sheffield Weds in terms of average possession (47% vs 54%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.47
0.65
0.38
0.46
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.73
0.56
1.11
0.00
0.17
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.43
0.00
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield Weds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.67
0.27
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.35
0.70
0.20
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.06
0.71
0.85
0.77
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
0.60
1.11
0.56
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.62
0.71
0.71
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
3.00
2.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield Weds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.53
0.53
0.40
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.00
0.70
0.50
0.40
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AFC Wimbledon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Maycock33%
Myles Hippolyte25%
Alistair Smith0%
Dan Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Jayden Stockley0%
Steve Seddon0%
James Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
Aron Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Zack Nelson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Myles Hippolyte50%
Ryan Johnson33%
Alistair Smith25%
Dan Sweeney25%
Steven Sessegnon25%
Steve Seddon25%
Zack Nelson25%
Callum Maycock0%
Jayden Stockley0%
James Tilley0%
Aron Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Ogundere33%
Alistair Smith0%
Callum Maycock0%
Dan Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Jayden Stockley0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
James Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
Aron Sasu0%
Zack Nelson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alistair Smith0%
Callum Maycock0%
Dan Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Jayden Stockley0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
James Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
Aron Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Zack Nelson0%
Sheffield Weds · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamal Lowe50%
Callum Slattery33%
Louie Barry25%
Mason Burstow25%
Gabriel Otegbayo25%
Ricardo Santos0%
Yan Valery0%
Barry Bannan0%
Liam Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
Billy Mitchell0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
Kieran Morrison0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Callum Slattery33%
Billy Mitchell33%
Jarvis Thornton33%
Ricardo Santos0%
Yan Valery0%
Barry Bannan0%
Liam Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
Jamal Lowe0%
Max Lowe0%
Louie Barry0%
Sil Swinkels0%
Mason Burstow0%
Kieran Morrison0%
Gabriel Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barry Bannan50%
Callum Slattery33%
Kieran Morrison33%
Jamal Lowe25%
Louie Barry25%
Mason Burstow25%
Ricardo Santos0%
Yan Valery0%
Liam Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
Billy Mitchell0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
Gabriel Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamal Lowe50%
Callum Slattery33%
Kieran Morrison33%
Louie Barry25%
Mason Burstow25%
Ricardo Santos0%
Yan Valery0%
Barry Bannan0%
Liam Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
Billy Mitchell0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
Gabriel Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (30)
€392m
IPS (31)
€280m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
WIG (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
MOR (1)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon's squad is €16m less valuable than Sheffield Weds's (€5m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon's attack is €5m less valuable than Sheffield Weds's (€2m vs €7m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (6)
€110m
IPS (7)
€66m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon's midfield is €5m less valuable than Sheffield Weds's (€1m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (15)
€125m
IPS (13)
€85m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
MOR (0)
€0m
AFC Wimbledon's defence is €6m less valuable than Sheffield Weds's (€2m vs €8m).
England: League One 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Wigan
Rotherham
Milton Keynes Dons
Sunderland
Wycombe
Plymouth
Oxford
Bolton
Portsmouth
Ipswich
Accrington
Charlton
Cambridge
Cheltenham
Burton
Lincoln
Shrewsbury
Morecambe
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Doncaster
Crewe