The match between AFC Wimbledon and Wigan is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win at 37%. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.4% chance. Wimbledon, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.57 conceded, while Wigan’s away form is 0.0 scored and 2.0 conceded against this tier. The home win probability sits at 32%, a draw at 30%, and the away win at 37%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (96.5% with a 3% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came as AFC Wimbledon edged Wigan 1-0, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite for an away win. The prediction, backed by a 37% chance, proved wrong, while the home side’s win was not anticipated. The final score of 1-0 gave Wimbledon a home victory, extending their recent form with a win after a mixed run of WLDLD. The model’s selection for an away win was therefore missed. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (96.5%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%). All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure was mentioned only once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AFC Wimbledon win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.11
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.21
Dafabet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Betano
3.15
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.22
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.31
BetVictor
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Wigan win✗ Miss
37.3%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.26
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.33
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Dafabet
2.29
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.67
1.00
1.56
0.86
1.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
2.38
1.00
2.57
0.89
2.22
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.86
1.00
0.78
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wigan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
0.93
0.86
1.06
1.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.36
1.00
0.85
1.13
1.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.2%
@ 1.34+0.5%
Under 1.5
29.8%
@ 3.07-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.07-2.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.72+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.9%
@ 3.63-3.7%
Under 3.5
78.1%
@ 1.25+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.83
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.8%
@ 1.79-1.9%
No
50.2%
@ 1.92+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.79+6.7%
0-0
10.5%@ 8.21+5.1%
0-1
10.1%@ 6.88+3.6%
1-0 ✓
9.2%@ 8.34+3.8%
1-2
8.1%@ 8.49+2.9%
2-1
7.5%@ 10.26+3.1%
0-2
7.1%@ 10.34+2.8%
2-0
6.0%@ 14.52+2.9%
AFC Wimbledon goals ↓
Wigan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10%
7.1%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.2%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.0%
2
6.0%
7.5%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.3%
2.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AFC Wimbledon goals (down), columns = Wigan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
AFC Wimbledon is 0.07 points worse than Wigan in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
AFC Wimbledon is 0.04 goals better than Wigan in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
AFC Wimbledon is 0.30 goals worse than Wigan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
AFC Wimbledon is 1.1 percentage points better than Wigan in terms of average possession (46% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
For 5.3 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wigan
For 5.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AFC Wimbledon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
23.0
23.4
22.6
vs Stronger (24)
9.6
8.8
10.2
3.1
2.6
3.5
22.4
23.1
21.8
vs Similar (25)
10.4
11.4
9.2
3.4
3.9
2.8
23.5
23.6
23.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
58%
48%
46%
48%
44%
65%
75%
56%
% under line
47%
42%
52%
54%
52%
56%
35%
25%
44%
This opponent (Wigan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wigan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.5
11.7
2.9
3.2
2.7
23.3
23.5
23.0
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
4.0
-
4.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (46)
10.7
9.3
12.2
2.9
3.1
2.6
23.1
23.7
22.5
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
13.0
7.0
3.3
3.5
3.0
27.5
20.0
35.0
% over line
56%
50%
62%
40%
38%
42%
60%
58%
62%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
60%
62%
58%
40%
42%
38%
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.1
Leicester
10.8
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Blackpool
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
10.1
Doncaster
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
8.9
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.0
Stevenage
3.8
Doncaster
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Luton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
Wigan
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.9
Plymouth
24.6
Bradford
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Huddersfield
24.4
Luton
23.8
Leyton Orient
23.5
Peterboro
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Wigan
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Doncaster
22.6
Burton
22.5
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Leicester
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.1
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.3%
@ 1.70+7.7%
Under 9.5
37.7%
@ 2.04-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Under
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.4%
Under 21.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AFC Wimbledon or Draw✓ Hit
62.7%
Avg Implied 58.9% · @ 1.58
Edge
+3.9%
32%
30%
37%
covers AFC Wimbledon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
AFC Wimbledon or Wigan✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.31
Edge
-1.6%
32%
30%
37%
covers AFC Wimbledon + Wigan
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw or Wigan✗ Miss
67.6%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.33
Edge
-2.2%
32%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Wigan
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.1%
@ 1.39+1.4%
Under
31.9%
@ 2.79-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.76
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.7%
@ 2.89-0.5%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.37+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
Superbet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Under
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 7.30-1.9%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.07+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
AFC Wimbledon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 18.08-2.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Wigan over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.2%
@ 1.27-2.2%
Under
28.8%
@ 3.48+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Wigan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 2.32-4.7%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.55+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.34
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Under
Superbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Wigan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 5.44-4.0%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.12+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.40
BetVictor
5.40
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Wigan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 12.25-4.0%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AFC Wimbledon, so a minus line means AFC Wimbledon give that many goals of a start and Wigan receive them. At -1, AFC Wimbledon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AFC Wimbledon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: Wigan
AFC Wimbledon -2
4.3%
@ 17.33-1.0%
Draw -2
9.4%
@ 9.40-0.4%
Wigan +2
86.3%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Superbet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
8.20
Away
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: Draw
AFC Wimbledon -1
13.7%
@ 6.69+0.3%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 4.58-0.9%
Wigan +1
67.6%
@ 1.34+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Handicap +1 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon +1
62.7%
@ 1.58+6.3%
Draw +1
20.4%
@ 3.80-3.1%
Wigan -1
16.9%
@ 4.47-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.56
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.25
Handicap +2 (AFC Wimbledon)Actual: AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon +2
83.1%
@ 1.16+7.1%
Draw +2
11.1%
@ 6.05-3.5%
Wigan -2
5.7%
@ 9.47-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.35
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.50
0.44
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
1.00
0.43
0.71
0.44
1.22
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.36
0.56
0.22
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wigan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.36
0.36
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.68
0.38
0.38
0.53
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.9%
@ 1.42+1.6%
Under 0.5
33.1%
@ 2.68-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.2%
@ 2.98-2.0%
Under 1.5
70.8%
@ 1.35+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.12
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.02
1xBet
3.02
Under
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.1%
@ 7.92-1.7%
Under 2.5
89.9%
@ 1.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.2%
@ 2.30+3.9%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.56-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.36
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 7.88-1.0%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.05+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 22.83-2.5%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Wigan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.4%
@ 2.04-4.1%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.70+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Wigan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 6.29-4.4%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.08+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Betano
6.20
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Wigan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.67-3.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.50
1.12
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.38
0.57
1.86
0.44
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.56
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wigan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.68
0.62
0.46
0.60
0.87
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.7%
@ 1.25-0.2%
Under 0.5
26.3%
@ 3.55+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 2.23-1.4%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.60+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.22
William Hil
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 4.92-3.7%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.15+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.2%
@ 1.96+2.1%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.75-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Under
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.70
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.93-2.0%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.09+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
5.80
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 17.75-2.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Wigan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.5%
@ 1.74-5.8%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.99+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Wigan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 4.68-5.9%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.15+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Wigan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 13.00-3.5%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
87.0%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.12
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.1%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.8%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.7%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
-2.2%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.35
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.2%
1.34
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+0.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AFC Wimbledon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Maycock25%
J. Stockley20%
Myles Hippolyte20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Myles Hippolyte40%
A. Yiadom33%
Ryan Johnson25%
A. Smith20%
D. Sweeney20%
Steven Sessegnon20%
Steve Seddon20%
Z. Nelson20%
C. Maycock0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
J. Tilley0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Ogundere33%
J. Tilley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Z. Nelson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Stockley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
Wigan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
Jon Mellish0%
Fraser Murray0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
J. Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
R. Walsh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Finley Burns33%
Archie Harris33%
Jon Mellish25%
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
J. Carragher25%
Fraser Murray0%
J. Walsh0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
R. Walsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Power25%
J. Carragher25%
Jon Mellish0%
J. Weir0%
Fraser Murray0%
D. Costelloe0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
R. Walsh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fraser Murray67%
S. Perkins50%
R. Walsh33%
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
Jon Mellish0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
J. Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
AFC Wimbledon's squad is €2m less valuable than Wigan's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
AFC Wimbledon and Wigan have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
AFC Wimbledon's midfield is €2m less valuable than Wigan's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
AFC Wimbledon and Wigan have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe