The contest between Afturelding and Fylkir is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away victory. Home win odds sit at 33%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 40%, making the latter the most probable outcome. The average number of goals expected is 3.0, yet the most likely total is two, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability, reflecting the evenly matched defensive and offensive figures.
Afturelding, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Fylkir, on the road, averages 2.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded against comparable teams. Both sides have been on short winning streaks - Afturelding on a three-game run and Fylkir on a two-game run - adding to the uncertainty.
The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 goals with an 81% probability. No edge percentage is provided for this pick.
Results analysis
The match saw Fylkir extend their two-game winning streak, clinching a 0-2 victory over Afturelding. The model had correctly predicted the away win, assigning a 40% probability to that outcome. Its favourite call was right, and the predicted 2-goal total was also accurate, with the Over 1.5 selection hitting at an 81% chance. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the model’s overall assessment proved solid. Afturelding’s home form had been a 3-game winning run, yet they could not convert that momentum into a result, while Fylkir’s away form, featuring a 2-game winning streak, carried through. The final score confirmed the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Afturelding win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylkir win✓ Hit
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Afturelding
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.47
2.00
1.11
2.00
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.93
1.47
1.71
1.14
2.12
1.75
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.50
3.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
16% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.95
1.11
3.70
1.30
2.11
0.89
vs Stronger (4)
3.00
1.00
4.50
1.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
2.93
1.13
3.50
1.25
2.29
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
32% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
0-2 ✓
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
Afturelding goals ↓
Fylkir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.8%
6.2%
3.2%
1.3%
1
6.0%
12%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.0%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.4%
3.8%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Afturelding goals (down), columns = Fylkir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fylkir
2.32
HK Kopavogur
2.09
Grotta
1.68
Fjolnir
1.64
Kórdrengir
1.50
Selfoss
1.45
Thor Akureyri
1.36
Afturelding
1.32
Vestri
1.27
Grindavik
1.23
KV
0.82
Thróttur Vogar
0.27
Afturelding is 1.00 points worse than Fylkir in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 2.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fylkir
2.86
Fjolnir
2.32
HK Kopavogur
2.09
Grindavik
1.95
Grotta
1.91
Selfoss
1.86
Afturelding
1.77
Vestri
1.64
Kórdrengir
1.64
Thor Akureyri
1.41
KV
1.23
Thróttur Vogar
0.36
Afturelding is 1.09 goals worse than Fylkir in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 2.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fylkir
1.05
HK Kopavogur
1.36
Kórdrengir
1.36
Grotta
1.50
Thor Akureyri
1.59
Fjolnir
1.68
Afturelding
1.77
Selfoss
1.77
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
2.05
KV
2.36
Thróttur Vogar
2.55
Afturelding is 0.73 goals worse than Fylkir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Afturelding
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.42
0.89
0.11
0.40
0.70
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.53
0.71
0.14
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
68% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.26
0.37
1.60
0.40
0.89
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.33
1.50
0.38
1.00
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
74% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Afturelding
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.05
1.11
1.00
1.60
1.10
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
0.93
1.00
1.00
1.75
0.88
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
32% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.68
0.74
2.10
0.90
1.22
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.67
0.80
2.00
0.88
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
Afturelding and Fylkir have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
Afturelding and Fylkir have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Afturelding and Fylkir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (10)
€1m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Afturelding and Fylkir have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
HK Kopavogur
Grotta
Fjolnir
Kórdrengir
Selfoss
Thor Akureyri
Vestri
Grindavik
KV
Thróttur Vogar